The probability of the existence of the Christian God

[Paleophyte]

Not sure what in the name of all that's unholy this has to do with god or Christianity.

World organized crime has gained revenues in the amount of tens of thousands of billions of dollars in recent decades. Today, there are no known billionaires from illicit activities.

Citations please. Unlike some gormless believers, we aren't all terrified of really big numbers.

There are only two options:
option A: (Western) states are involved in illegal activities.
option B: (Western) states are not involved in illegal activities, in which case organized crime is the main force in the global economy.
Which option do you think is the correct one? More importantly, what facts do you base your choice on? Do you agree that, in both options, the world is ruled by criminals?

Actually, there are many options, as a few other people have already pointed out. That said, it would be criminally naive to suppose that any nation isn't engaged in some form of criminal behavior or other. And that said, it doesn't mean that those states are run by organized crime. It's entirely possible that organized crime is funneling money through any of a variety of poorer nations that are much more easily bought.

If it is the American state that rules global organized crime, then one of the most important prophecies of the Bible, namely that the most powerful kingdom (state) that has ever existed will lose its power in judgment, is about to be fulfilled.

My, don't we have an overinflated opinion of ourselves? That "prophecy" was about Rome. It fell 1600 years ago (give or take, depending on how you set the date), so the apocralypse is a little late. The horsemen must be napping. The USA accounts for less than 20% of the world's GDP. They don't even properly rule themselves, much less anything else.

[TheGentlemanBastard]

You're not cold brewing your coffee and heating it before you drink it?!? 

Is that something I should do, or just a lighthearted joke? : )

Kinda both. 

I discovered the wonderfulness of cold brew coffee a while back. It releases all the flavors and caffeine while drastically reducing the extraction of the acids and tannins. But, I utterly loathe and despise drinking cold coffee, so once the grounds are out, I always heat it  up before drinking. I can actually get a decent cup out of, not Folgers, but knock-off store brand Folgers. Not something I do on the regular, being a bit of a coffee snob.

Bonus points if you enjoy flavored coffees because those flavors come through much more boldly once the acidity and astringency (from the tannins) are reduced.

It takes longer to set up and requires a bit more forethought, but well worth it in my opinion.

[Mathilda]

If it is the American state that rules global organized crime, then one of the most important prophecies of the Bible, namely that the most powerful kingdom (state) that has ever existed will lose its power in judgment, is about to be fulfilled.

My, don't we have an overinflated opinion of ourselves? That "prophecy" was about Rome. It fell 1600 years ago (give or take, depending on how you set the date), so the apocralypse is a little late. The horsemen must be napping. The USA accounts for less than 20% of the world's GDP. They don't even properly rule themselves, much less anything else.

I think the British empire was the largest and most powerful to have ever existed.

Sorry world.

[Szuchow]

My, don't we have an overinflated opinion of ourselves? That "prophecy" was about Rome. It fell 1600 years ago (give or take, depending on how you set the date), so the apocralypse is a little late. The horsemen must be napping. The USA accounts for less than 20% of the world's GDP. They don't even properly rule themselves, much less anything else.

I think the British empire was the largest and most powerful to have ever existed.

Sorry world.

Wikipedia agrees on British empire being the biggest but as consolation prize Mongol empire was largest continuous landmass empire in history.

[neutral]

In peacetime, organized crime is the state of maximum illegality and evilness.

Nope

Only from drugs alone do 500,000 people die annually. If you want to contradict me, tell me what is worse than organized crime.

Religion is the fight between good and evil.

aaaaaaaaaaand: nope

Religion has many meanings for different people. I wrote my personal subjective opinion, what religion means to me. You cannot falsify my personal opinion.

And that was just the first paragraph of your nonsense!

You contradict yourself. First, you falsify my statements, meaning that you understand them, and then you say they are nonsense. Nonsense is not true or false. Nonsense is just nonsense, nothing more.
And you are wrong. See reply #50. There is an attempt to contradict what I wrote, at least one person understood something, therefore my reply is not nonsense.

[neutral]

False dichotomy.  There are multiple options and for the moment I'll go with "Various states in both the East and West, and organized crime, likely both play a role in the global economy.  Without actually naming names and crunching a lot of data, however, it is not possible to determine how much of a role they play.  It is therefore premature to declare 'the world is ruled by criminals.'"

I will reformulate the question: Is the American state the main beneficiary of the profits generated by organized crime in the US?

We have to do the crunching of a lot of data. On a simple evaluation, the wealth of organized crime is US$30 trillion, just over a period of 30 years (1990-2020).

The total market capitalization of all publicly traded companies in 2020 was approximately US$93 trillion.

Organized crime could buy almost 30% of all publicly traded companies. And if they buy just half of every company, organized crime would control almost 60% of all publicly traded companies. And that will make organized crime the main force in the global economy.

And none of the above has anything meaningful to say about whether or not gods exist.

If the last prophecy of the Bible will be fulfilled, then even if the Bible is almost entirely false, we will still have to find a rational explanation for that.

[neutral]

I don't think Forbes searches out and reports on any individual or groups wealth that results from illegal activities. That means that when you compare Forbes list with the hundreds/thousands illicit billionaires in your assertion you've made an error in logic.

Yes, they do.
https://www.forbes.com.au/news/billionai...hind-bars/
"Joaquín Guzmán Loera (aka El Chapo)
Behind bars: 5 years of a life sentence
Net Worth: Dropped off the Billionaires list in 2013
Joaquín Guzmán Loera, better known as El Chapo, is one of the most infamous drug lords in history."

Nobody can argue a god(s) into existence. Please provide some concrete evidence.

See reply 21 on this thread to find out how to get the theory. Like the name of the thread suggests, there is only a probability.

[Deesse23]

Nope

Only from drugs alone do 500,000 people die annually. If you want to contradict me, tell me what is worse than organized crime.

Your point does not stand until i disprove it. Thats not how shit works. YOUR job is to prove that nothing is worse than organized crime. Good luck finding reliable numbers on organized crime.
500.000 drug victims is the worst you can come up with? Every 10 seconds a child dies of starvation. Thats 3 million children per year. Time to pull your head out of your christian ass.

Religion has many meanings for different people. I wrote my personal subjective opinion, what religion means to me. You cannot falsify my personal opinion.

In your original post you didnt say it was your opinion only, did you? You stated it as a fact, didnt you?

Here is what you said: https://atheistdiscussion.org/forums/sho...#pid419623
Your god wont like you breaking his 8th commandment!

You contradict yourself. First, you falsify my statements, meaning that you understand them, and then you say they are nonsense. Nonsense is not true or false. Nonsense is just nonsense, nothing more.
And you are wrong. See reply #50. There is an attempt to contradict what I wrote, at least one person understood something, therefore my reply is not nonsense.

Are you that stupid, or only pretending to be? Your best defense of your nonsense is semantics and wordplay?
Your posts here are nonsense, and your silly .pdf treaty is even more so. Full of fallacies, looking desperately for patterns and really, really bad math. The fact that you think your best argument for your god is ....statistics and random patterns, is just.....hilarious.

In other words: Complete nonsense, and you and everything you utter is full of it.

[neutral]

World organized crime has gained revenues in the amount of tens of thousands of billions of dollars in recent decades. Today, there are no known billionaires from illicit activities.

Citations please. Unlike some gormless believers, we aren't all terrified of really big numbers.

https://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/frontpage...there.html
United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime
"The UNODC report estimates that the total amount of criminal proceeds generated in 2009, excluding those derived from tax evasion, may have been approximately $2.1 trillion."
Multiply that by 30 or 15 (only from 2009 to the present time).

[Deesse23]

Citations please. Unlike some gormless believers, we aren't all terrified of really big numbers.

https://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/frontpage...there.html
United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime
"The UNODC report estimates that the total amount of criminal proceeds generated in 2009, excluding those derived from tax evasion, may have been approximately $2.1 trillion."
Multiply that by 30 or 15 (only from 2009 to the present time).

Isnt it bizarre that this fool thinks the existence of so much human suffering is evidence for his omnipotent and omnibenevolent god?
"free will" in 3....2...

[brewerb]

I don't think Forbes searches out and reports on any individual or groups wealth that results from illegal activities. That means that when you compare Forbes list with the hundreds/thousands illicit billionaires in your assertion you've made an error in logic.

Yes, they do.
https://www.forbes.com.au/news/billionai...hind-bars/
"Joaquín Guzmán Loera (aka El Chapo)
Behind bars: 5 years of a life sentence
Net Worth: Dropped off the Billionaires list in 2013
Joaquín Guzmán Loera, better known as El Chapo, is one of the most infamous drug lords in history."

Nobody can argue a god(s) into existence. Please provide some concrete evidence.

See reply 21 on this thread to find out how to get the theory. Like the name of the thread suggests, there is only a probability.

One guy with an 'estimated' wealth. It certainly was never reported, they only reported what he was required to pay. Where are the 'thousands' you alluded to?

Bold mine: I'll take that as no concrete evidence therefore no god. Time to grow up and stop wasting your and our time.

Start over with a new thread, suggest you drop the god part along with the conspiracy part. Oh shit, that probably means that you have nothing intelligent to talk about............ never mind.

[brewerb]

Only from drugs alone do 500,000 people die annually. If you want to contradict me, tell me what is worse than organized crime.

I'll guess that your 500K is US deaths. Cancer and cardiac disease both beat that number and, according to the creator believers, both are given by god.

Oh snap! (is that still a thing?)

[TheGentlemanBastard]

I need to invest in setting up troll food concession stands.



C'mon, guys. Quit @neutral. He's boring with his completely unoriginal bullshit.

[Astreja]

I will reformulate the question: Is the American state the main beneficiary of the profits generated by organized crime in the US?

*shrug* Who knows?  Probably not, as criminals like to spend money on themselves rather than paying taxes to finance roads, schools and other infrastructure.

If the last prophecy of the Bible will be fulfilled, then even if the Bible is almost entirely false, we will still have to find a rational explanation for that.

That's a huge "if," and I'm just not going to bother taking it seriously.

Whenever a so-called prophesy can be fulfilled by human actions, or is just a riff on a known phenomenon (Water is wet, the sun rises in the east, and humans can be greedy little shits), input from gods is simply not necessary.  We can figure stuff like that out without referencing a daft Middle Eastern mythological tome with an impossible flood, an exodus that never happened, an undead rabbi, and a Talking Snake™.

[rocinantexyz]

I don't believe that is possible. Could you show your work?

See post 21 on this thread to find out how to get the theory.

I read what you wrote. You don't know me from Adam but I am a mathematician who calculates probability for a living. What you have written is nonsense. I'll post a snippet of some of the nonsense so others don't have to waste their time. I'm sorry, no one likes to be told they are a crackpot; but you are a crackpot.

     The probability of personal coincidences is the only one we can measure exactly. People will have to try to find coincidences related to God, religion, planet,etc. Dividing the number of people with six or more coincidences by the global population leads to the desired probability. For example, if there were 8,000,000 people in the world (probably not so many) with six or more coincidences then the probability that God would exist is 1 - 8,000,000 / 8,000,000,000 = 1 - 1 / 1,000 =0.999 or 99.9%, and the probability that God does not exist (that the coincidences are accidental) is 0.1%

[Dānu]

That's some weapons-grade stupid right there.

[Charladele]

I have a question (politely raising hand).

What exactly is your goal by all this?

You come to an atheist site (knowing darned well that we don't believe in any kind of God), toss up some sort of babble about God and crime, and expect...what exactly?

Why should we take any of our time to understand anything you are trying to feed us? You don't even take any time to introduce yourself, look around, or even get to know us.

[airportkid]

... Dividing the number of people with six or more coincidences ...

This fails to properly account for the coincidences of people with only 5 coincidences being in the group with only 5 coincidences, putting them into 6 coincidence membership, and without having to pay extra dues (another coincidence).  Also not considered is the extraordinary coincidence that a human mind capable of 100 trillion synaptic connections nonetheless fails to make common connections that would avoid colossal errors of this kind.

[airportkid]

That's some weapons-grade stupid right there.

Likely a US GOP operative.

[rocinantexyz]

That's some weapons-grade stupid right there.

My favorite aspect of this model: presumably the ratio of these special people to the total population changes. Implying that the probability god is real is a function of time!

My runner up is: apparently the more special people there (in percentage) the less likely god is real! I would have assumed the opposite relation!

[AutisticWill]

...

I discovered the wonderfulness of cold brew coffee a while back. It releases all the flavors and caffeine while drastically reducing the extraction of the acids and tannins. But, I utterly loathe and despise drinking cold coffee, so once the grounds are out, I always heat it  up before drinking. I can actually get a decent cup out of, not Folgers, but knock-off store brand Folgers. Not something I do on the regular, being a bit of a coffee snob.

Bonus points if you enjoy flavored coffees because those flavors come through much more boldly once the acidity and astringency (from the tannins) are reduced.

It takes longer to set up and requires a bit more forethought, but well worth it in my opinion.

Neutral seems to have forgotten about my coffee. Where is that boy?

I doubled the coffee beans to 5 tablespoons before grinding, but kept everything else the same.

The resulting brew was twice the color, but still it was only medium colored, not the rich dark brown we normally associate with coffee.

The taste was at a strength I desired; but it still tasted slightly bitter and 'off.'

I suspect the beans have oxidized, despite being put in a leak-proof plastic container.

To make it drinkable, I added caramel sauce and caramel-coffee-creamer.

I like how it tastes, but I would rather drink black coffee, for the sophistication and better health (less calories).

"BOY! I say, BOY! WHERE'S MY GODDAMN COFFEE!?"

[Gwaithmir]

I haven't the slightest idea what's going on here. 

[airportkid]

I haven't the slightest idea what's going on here.

But at least you recognize that.  The OP doesn't nor realizes he doesn't.  Kind of a nothing to the 8th power. 

[Mathilda]

I haven't the slightest idea what's going on here. 

I'm not sure anyone does.

[brewerb]

We are having FUN!

You all know what comes after the virtual spanking...............