Coronavirus spreads. But don't panic! (topical thread)

[mordant]

It looks like Novavax is now, per the CDC, an option as a "first booster" for people who have received other vaccines.

This is still insufficient and way more restrictive than in other countries, but it is at least headed in the right direction. Until now it was only approved in the US as a first vaccination series.

Novavax works in part by rendering a protein present in all Coronavirus strains unable to perform its function: inserting Covid DNA into host cells. As such, it should be effective for ALL FUTURE VARIANTS which is huge.

Novavax also does not use mRNA technology and it was hoped that it would get some uptake in people who are distrustful of that technology (or whose brains are full of conspiracy theories about it).

My family will be eligible for Novavax in mid February if it is by then approved as an option regardless of prior primary or booster series. It is definitely something we'd like to try.

It does not provide an invincibility shield and one should still mask and distance indoors, etc., but considering the sluggish turn around times for updated mRNA boosters so far, it has the potential to stay much more on top of the constantly mutating virus, which, contrary to hopes, is not becoming "milder".

[mordant]

It also appears that the J&J vaccine is actually more effective than expected as a booster, and is holding its own with its mRNA cousins.

(Paywall unfortunately): https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/15/healt...ccine.html

[mordant]

A study on how Covid science contrary to government policy is repressed and censored.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.100...22-09479-4

Read it and weep.

[mordant]

One of the virology newsletters I read is reporting that although the new BQ strains are not dominant in France, hospitalizations for Covid continue to fall. This is seen as "we're not out of the woods yet but it's a hopeful sign". It is possible that the new strains, though massively immune-escaping, are for once in fact actually "milder". However this can change at a moment's notice, and one must keep in mind that the reported figures from most health agencies are now so politicized as to be suspect. We are doing far less testing, far less reporting, and hospitalizations are just part of the story. Plus, as we saw with the CDC's delay in notifying the public of the inroads being made in the US by the BQ strains, there is foot-dragging in the reporting environment.

Meanwhile, people still get very ill without going to the short-staffed hospitals, and some of those end up with long covid.


In other news, the new bivalent vaccine has seen several studies published in the past couple of weeks, the gist of which is that although they are less effective against the new BQ strains than BA.5, they are still more effective than expected. So still definitely worth getting, while at the same time not neglecting NPI's (Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions like masking and social distancing).

[Bucky Ball]

Maybe a better vaccine approach.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/scientists...d?ref=home

[Minimalist]

Hmmm.....

Lots of current vaccines target the spike protein. But none of them specifically target the spine helix. And yet, there are good reasons to focus on that part of the pathogen. Whereas many regions of the spike protein tend to change a lot as the virus mutates, the spine helix doesn’t.

But the way natural selection works is that if you don't target the spine helix it has no reason to mutate.  But if you do target it you have to understand that you will not kill them all.  The ones that survive will be the ones that produce the next generations of the virus.  The problem these researchers have is that by the time they finish shaving the following mornings there will already have been 10 generations of newly-resistant spine helixes brought into the world. 

Humans are far too slow to keep up with viruses.

[Bucky Ball]

The good news, is that so far, that hasn't happened.

[Minimalist]

The bad news is that they really haven't tried yet, as they admit.

Don’t break out the champagne quite yet. “Although these data are useful for vaccine design, we have not performed vaccination experiments in this study and thus cannot draw any definitive conclusions with regard to the efficacy of stem helix-based vaccines,” the NIH team warned.

It’s one thing to test a few antibodies on hamsters. It’s another to develop, run trials with and get approval for a whole new class of vaccine. “It is really hard and most things that start out as good ideas fail for one reason or another,” James Lawler, an infectious disease expert at the University of Nebraska Medical Center, told The Daily Beast.

[mordant]

The 2 virology newsletters I receive 2 or 3 times a week think we are going to get relatively lucky over the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays -- that the dominant BQ strain continues to prove to be "mild" despite being more immune-escaping than any strains yet seen. But they caution that this will only "probably" hold with the current dominant strains, and things could be a shit show again in a couple of months. So no sighs of relief are in order.

Also there are flies in the ointment:

* Monoclonal antibody treatments that have served as alternatives to Paxlovid for those who can't tolerate it, are useless against these strains. Bad news for the frail / vulnerable.

* It's still just as true as ever that each time you catch Covid, vaccinated or otherwise, you increase your chances of potentially permanent "long covid disability"

* It's still just as true as ever that strokes, heart attacks, and other serious-to-fatal sequelae often follow after apparent recovery from Covid. It's still a blood disorder masquerading as a respiratory infection. Disordered clotting continues to be observed.

[Free]

The 2 virology newsletters I receive 2 or 3 times a week think we are going to get relatively lucky over the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays -- that the dominant BQ strain continues to prove to be "mild" despite being more immune-escaping than any strains yet seen. But they caution that this will only "probably" hold with the current dominant strains, and things could be a shit show again in a couple of months. So no sighs of relief are in order.

Also there are flies in the ointment:

* Monoclonal antibody treatments that have served as alternatives to Paxlovid for those who can't tolerate it, are useless against these strains. Bad news for the frail / vulnerable.

* It's still just as true as ever that each time you catch Covid, vaccinated or otherwise, you increase your chances of potentially permanent "long covid disability"

* It's still just as true as ever that strokes, heart attacks, and other serious-to-fatal sequelae often follow after apparent recovery from Covid. It's still a blood disorder masquerading as a respiratory infection. Disordered clotting continues to be observed.

Interestingly I just received a phone call from a customer of mine who contracted COVID-19 two years ago this month, and after two years he says only about 10% of his smell and taste have returned. Also, he is unable to sit in front of a screen for more than 5 minutes without vomiting and getting ill.

He's 41.

[mordant]

The 2 virology newsletters I receive 2 or 3 times a week think we are going to get relatively lucky over the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays -- that the dominant BQ strain continues to prove to be "mild" despite being more immune-escaping than any strains yet seen. But they caution that this will only "probably" hold with the current dominant strains, and things could be a shit show again in a couple of months. So no sighs of relief are in order.

Also there are flies in the ointment:

* Monoclonal antibody treatments that have served as alternatives to Paxlovid for those who can't tolerate it, are useless against these strains. Bad news for the frail / vulnerable.

* It's still just as true as ever that each time you catch Covid, vaccinated or otherwise, you increase your chances of potentially permanent "long covid disability"

* It's still just as true as ever that strokes, heart attacks, and other serious-to-fatal sequelae often follow after apparent recovery from Covid. It's still a blood disorder masquerading as a respiratory infection. Disordered clotting continues to be observed.

Interestingly I just received a phone call from a customer of mine who contracted COVID-19 two years ago this month, and after two years he says only about 10% of his smell and taste have returned. Also, he is unable to sit in front of a screen for more than 5 minutes without vomiting and getting ill.

He's 41.

Google something like "long covid support" sometime if you want -- you'll find people swapping all sorts of horror stories like that.

Most "long covid" is just a very slow and uneven recovery, and sometimes with debilitating symptoms that appear a few weeks after a very mild or even asymptomatic case. Sometimes the "long" is so long that it appears permanent. All the hallmarks of standard self-sustaining post-viral syndromes. The odds of long covid approach 1 in 3, particularly for the unvaccinated -- but the odds aren't that low for the vaccinated either, especially if you're old or in poor health.

There's also studies showing that strokes, heart attacks, pulmonary embolisms and some other conditions like dementia are several times more likely to occur post-Covid than normally would be the case and/or earlier in life than is typical. Also we now understand that the likelihood of that (and long covid) increases with each re-infection, even in the vaccinated. People die of those things and the death certificate doesn't connect it with Covid. People are disabled and it is put down to the proximal diagnosis and not the original impetus.

This is why I am still VERY careful with (N95) masking and distancing and minimizing being indoors with people. I admit it's easier for me than for a lot of people (I'm a 100% telecommuting introvert, as are my whole family). But I'm still rather disappointed in my fellow humans that even the people who were responsible and careful early on are now for the most part as delusional, careless and selfish as the anti-mask nutcases from the first part of the pandemic, although for somewhat different reasons. I understand that people are tired of all these limitations but the virus doesn't give a fuck.

[Fireball]

PLAGUE SHIP!

My wife went on a cruise to relax and quilt, after a year where her mother died and we had to evict tenants for non-payment of rent...and now got Covid. Quarantined to her room on the ship. The alternative was to ship her back to LA, but logistically speaking the best bet is to stay in quarantine there. We don't need it here at home, especially with my youngest brother's frailty after chemo and radiation. According to her, so far it's just like a regular cold with a slight fever. Now, she gets free wi-fi and room service!

Nice vacation. 

It's a reason I'm averse to going on a cruise, myself.

[Minimalist]

Looks as if China is giving up in the face of protests.

China Scraps Most Covid Testing, Quarantine Rules (msn.com)

HONG KONG—China dropped many of its quarantine and testing requirements and curtailed the power of local officials to shut down entire city blocks, as 
Though widely predicted, Beijing’s retreat from its costly and increasingly unpopular pandemic regime has been faster than expected. After being told for years that Covid represented a deadly threat, China’s population hasn’t been prepared for a sudden shift in policy, especially as infections have surged to a record high with outbreaks across the nation.

[mordant]

Looks as if China is giving up in the face of protests.

China Scraps Most Covid Testing, Quarantine Rules (msn.com)

HONG KONG—China dropped many of its quarantine and testing requirements and curtailed the power of local officials to shut down entire city blocks, as 
Though widely predicted, Beijing’s retreat from its costly and increasingly unpopular pandemic regime has been faster than expected. After being told for years that Covid represented a deadly threat, China’s population hasn’t been prepared for a sudden shift in policy, especially as infections have surged to a record high with outbreaks across the nation.

Nothing ever contemplated in the West was as draconian as Chinese policy on this matter, and I'd suggest that a few simple things would have accomplished 80% of what China did in arresting spread, with 20% of the effort:

1) N95 or equivalent masks in public
2) Social distancing in public
3) Vaccine mandates
4) Improvements to ventilation and filtering in public spaces, particularly IMO the newly-discovered 22-nanometer far-ultraviolet lights -- especially in schools
5) Mandate sick pay for the covid-positive and that employers allow remote work to the fullest possible extent
6) Encouraging of proper hand-washing

No need to lock people in their home or in isolation pods, or shut down whole cities or ports. No need for performative bullshit like spraying disinfectant all over the place.

But I'm sure the clowns in charge of public health these days will rejoice at the false equivalence of China's policies with the common sense policies they refuse to show leadership on here.

[mordant]

Pretty good analysis of the Covid spread crisis in China here.

https://twitter.com/brownecfm/status/160...3663085568

TL;DR = Unprecedented R0 of 20 (each new infection leads to an average of 20 more infections) means they couldn't stop this even if the gov't reversed course; millions will contract long covid and secondary infections; overloaded hospitals will not provide timely care, leading to more deaths. Lastly, if you need personal relevance: since key precursor ingredients to many pharmaceuticals come from China, expect significant supply chain disruptions here.

[Minimalist]

They should have bought better vaccines.

[Fireball]

They should have bought better vaccines.

Given the history, I don't think that the Chinese put a whole lot of value on an individual life. And, it appears that "Russians" are in the same boat.

[Minimalist]

China has serious demographic problems coming in the next few decades.  If they didn't care, they should have.  They have a rapidly aging population and lots of people bailing out on them.
Plus it is even more expensive to raise kids there than it is here.

My heart bleeds for them.

And fuck the russkis.

[mordant]

China has serious demographic problems coming in the next few decades.  If they didn't care, they should have.  They have a rapidly aging population and lots of people bailing out on them.
Plus it is even more expensive to raise kids there than it is here.

My heart bleeds for them.

And fuck the russkis.

What I think you're failing to take into account is that we are interdependent on the Chinese for many things and their suffering will in some ways become ours.

[mordant]

Yet another new Covid variant XBB.1.5 is dominant here in New York State now, rapidly overtaking others.

The only other place in the world this has happened so far is Singapore. They had a surge in October, and fortunately hospital deaths were relatively uncoupled from that surge (which as usual says zero about long covid and post-covid sequelae of other varieties). But Singaporians are far better vaccinated than us, too.

Here in NY, hospitals are filling up. The XBB family branch appears to have a good growth advantage -- not a good sign.

[Minimalist]

China has serious demographic problems coming in the next few decades.  If they didn't care, they should have.  They have a rapidly aging population and lots of people bailing out on them.
Plus it is even more expensive to raise kids there than it is here.

My heart bleeds for them.

And fuck the russkis.

What I think you're failing to take into account is that we are interdependent on the Chinese for many things and their suffering will in some ways become ours.

There is nothing we can do about their problems which are not unique to them.  To a lesser degree the whole first world suffers from declining fertility rates as compared to the third world.  China made things worse by the attempt to artificially control population and that part is unique to them but the rest of it comes from women being emancipated and not confined to being the brood mares for the state - as the more idiotic muslim world seems to insist upon.

Biden's smartest move was to get that microchip production bill passed.  There is a huge Intel factory going up about 15 miles away from here.  I don't know where they will get the workers from but the factory is being built at warp speed.

[mordant]

Biden's smartest move was to get that microchip production bill passed.  There is a huge Intel factory going up about 15 miles away from here.  I don't know where they will get the workers from but the factory is being built at warp speed.

I'm willing to agree with this statement. We can't rely on Taiwan for 100% of our chip production. It's a national security risk to have our collective ass hanging out like that.

There are people crabbing about how this won't work for the same reasons we originally sent production overseas -- people here won't work 12 hour shifts in clean rooms for low wages to make the chips. We'll have to run 3 shifts instead of 2, and we'll have to pay a lot more. But that's better than not being able to make anything because we have no chips because of some war in the Taiwan Straight, or some earthquake or whatever.

More broadly I think Biden actually intends to invest in making America the world leader at making basic goods in an environmentally sustainable way. To whatever degree we succeed at that the world will beat a path to our door. We will have kicked off what might be called an "environmental sustainability arms race". Some in Europe, especially the French, have picked up on this, and are concerned we have a plan when they don't.

My wife just finished writing an article on "green steel" production using hydrogen, which is one aspect of that, so it's top of mind right now.

[Minimalist]

Let me know when that article hits the web.

Sounds interesting.

[Fireball]

The company I used to work for made asics for most of the other defense companies. We made our own chips because it would be really stupid to give our political adversaries that tech.

[mordant]

Let me know when that article hits the web.

Sounds interesting.

It's going into a print journal initially as well as some marketing collateral for an atom probe tomography manufacturer, but if it ends up on the web you'll be the first to know.