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Coronavirus spreads. But don't panic! (topical thread)
#1

Coronavirus spreads. But don't panic! (topical thread)
I thought perhaps this deserves it's own thread.  Maybe we can discuss the threat of pandemics in general as well.

The stats as of today, Feb 27th are:
Confirmed cases worldwide: 82,781
Deaths: 2,817
Serious or critical condition: 8,471
Number of countries affected: 51

Number of cases in Italy: 655

Number of cases in the US: 60

My understanding is that the CDC has identified the first non-direc, community communicated case of the illness in the US this morning.  That means it is outside of quarentine.
The CDC has, as of Tuesday, classified this as a pandemic, due to community spread in multiple countries.
The CDC has also announced they expect it to spread inside the US.

Quote:The CDC said Americans should prepare for the possibility of disruptions to their daily lives if the virus were to start spreading in the U.S. That could include closing schools, working from home and delaying elective medical procedures.
. 25, 202001:44
"We should all be dusting off our pandemic preparedness plans and rehearse them very quickly," said Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease specialist at Vanderbilt University. "The core concept is social distancing."

President Trump is downplaying the concerns raised by the CDC, and has appointed Mike Pence to be in charge of a committee to be in charge of the US response.
While Governor of Indiana, Mike Pence closed the last Planned Parenthood clinic, which was also the last free clinic int he sate that did AIDS testing.  This resulted in an AIDS outbreak in the area.  Mike Pence has also taken very anti-science positions in the past, such as stating "Smoking doesn't kill".  Americans are not reasured.

This isn't to say people should panic.  We absolutely shouldn't.  But I do think people should take CDC warning seriously.  Do what you can for emergency preparedness.  Check on your elderly neighbors to make sure they have enough for at least a week.  The elderly are at the highest risk in the event of a spread, and we should do what we can to protect them.
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#2

Coronavirus spreads. But don't panic! (topical thread)
The economic fallout from this will probably last months.
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#3

Coronavirus spreads. But don't panic! (topical thread)
Trump lied to the nation in his press conference last night. Today, the Admin told the medical people that ALL information must be run through Pence's committee. Not to worry. There will be whistle-blowers. Pence is a fool, and utterly incompetent. He wanted to pray away the gay.
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#4

Coronavirus spreads. But don't panic! (topical thread)
Just had the first case in Northern Ireland. The person arrived from Italy. His plane landed here in the Republic, Dublin airport. Now authorities are trying to trace all other passengers that took the same flight. A bit of an overreaction here in Ireland, face masks have completely sold out nationwide
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#5

Coronavirus spreads. But don't panic! (topical thread)
Although I agree people shouldn't overreact, I don't think buying face masks falls into that category. They have been sold out around where I live for 2 weeks already. I only know because the shop teacher couldn't find any for my daughters design class.

This Coronavirus has a 2-4% death rate (it's not yet clear), which is higher than the flu that killing millions in 1917, and 2000x higher than the seasonal flu. It's not like plague levels of bad, but it's also nothing to sneeze at. Pun intended.
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#6

Coronavirus spreads. But don't panic! (topical thread)
(02-27-2020, 09:26 PM)Bucky Ball Wrote: Trump lied to the nation in his press conference last night. Today, the Admin told the medical people that ALL information must be run through Pence's committee. Not to worry. There will be whistle-blowers. Pence is a fool, and utterly incompetent. He wanted to pray away the gay.


[Image: Neil123.jpg]
Robert G. Ingersoll : “No man with a sense of humor ever founded a religion.”
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#7

Coronavirus spreads. But don't panic! (topical thread)
Welcome to communist China?
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#8

Coronavirus spreads. But don't panic! (topical thread)
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nco...in-us.html
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#9

Coronavirus spreads. But don't panic! (topical thread)
Quote:The New York Times reported that Iran is fast becoming a second focal point after China over the spread of the virus. Cases in Iraq, Afghanistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Lebanon, the UAE and Canada have all been traced to Iran. Pakistan has also confirmed its first two cases of coronavirus amid reports that it has started to quarantine pilgrims returning from the Iranian holy city of Qom. Pakistan has already sealed its border with Iran.

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/202002...ronavirus/

China --> Iran

Interesting path of travel AND to hit so many officials.
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#10

Coronavirus spreads. But don't panic! (topical thread)
My understanding is that they don't yet fully understand all paths of transmission.

The confirmed case in the US had no direct contact with anyone that has traveled outside the US, so they're still trying to figure out the path in that case.

Most countries are not equipped to deal with what appears to be coming, including the ones we consider "developed".
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#11

Coronavirus spreads. But don't panic! (topical thread)
The virus is already beginning to spread in Iran. I wonder when some ISIL demented leader gets the idea to spread this virus via infected jihadists to large cities as a weapon of war?
I am a sovereign citizen of the Multiverse, and I vote!


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#12

Coronavirus spreads. But don't panic! (topical thread)
(02-27-2020, 11:27 PM)Aroura Wrote: My understanding is that they don't yet fully understand all paths of transmission.

The confirmed case in the US had no direct contact with anyone that has traveled outside the US, so they're still trying to figure out the path in that case.

Most countries are not equipped to deal with what appears to be coming, including the ones we consider "developed".

There is so many unknowns I am not ready to become alarmed at this point. 

EDIT:
No known direct contact does not rule out passing thru the same store/resturant/bank/etc as some traveler back from a business venture in an affected area and just being the unlucky one who got the infected dollar(s) back from the cashier.

end EDIT

City of Wuhan pop 11 mill.  If 80K infections in Wuhan alone, that is 0.7% of population.  Without looking up the numbers, I think that is pretty close to an average flu season infection rate.  

Hubei provence pop 58mill.  If 80K infections out of 58Mill = infection rate of 0.14%

But I personally dont trust china numbers.  Yet we do have the cruise ship examples, where people were intermingling with a virus exposure unabated for a while to compare with and I just dont see the risk as being exceptional for most people.

Something I never heard of until yesterday:

https://www.google.com/search?q=pandemic+bonds
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#13

Coronavirus spreads. But don't panic! (topical thread)
I've been telling people for years not to drink that beer, but do they listen?

No.  And look what happens. Angry
" I have nothing to say and I am saying it and that is poetry. "
                                                                                 -- John Cage
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#14

Coronavirus spreads. But don't panic! (topical thread)
(02-28-2020, 01:32 AM)Dr H Wrote: I've been telling people for years not to drink that beer, but do they listen?

No.  And look what happens. Angry

Earlier today I was thinking hmm... mexico does not seem to be a chinese tourist destination.
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#15

Coronavirus spreads. But don't panic! (topical thread)
I just opened the NY Times web page and learned a woman is hospitalized in my city with coronavirus. Apparently the hospital didn't confirm until days after she was admitted that she had the virus and she didn't travel to China. One of my best friends works in this hospital. Oof.

Health care is prohibitively expensive here, even if you have insurance. Many workplaces don't have paid sick leave. Other nations don't have these problems and yet the virus is still spreading in those places.

After the tragic Camp fire in 2018, when we had a horrible, sickening cloud of smoke overhead for 2 weeks, I bought a pack of N95 respirator masks and put them away for the next fire. I forgot about them until a few weeks ago. The same masks are now quadruple and quintuple the price online.

I'm far from being frightened but I'm putting together a worst-case-scenario dystopic pandemic emergency kit with the masks and a few other items.
I told this to a coworker today and he asked for 3 for his family. He offered to pay. I'm giving them to him tomorrow.

-Teresa
There is in the universe only one true divide, one real binary, life and death. Either you are living or you are not. Everything else is molten, malleable.

-Susan Faludi, In the Darkroom
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#16

Coronavirus spreads. But don't panic! (topical thread)
When it's my time to go, it's my time to go.

Deadpan Coffee Drinker
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#17

Coronavirus spreads. But don't panic! (topical thread)
(02-27-2020, 09:24 PM)Thumpalumpacus Wrote: The economic fallout from this will probably last months.

Years. 
And the current occupant of the White House might as well start writing his exit tweet.

-Teresa
There is in the universe only one true divide, one real binary, life and death. Either you are living or you are not. Everything else is molten, malleable.

-Susan Faludi, In the Darkroom
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#18

Coronavirus spreads. But don't panic! (topical thread)
(02-28-2020, 02:04 AM)Tres Leches Wrote:
(02-27-2020, 09:24 PM)Thumpalumpacus Wrote: The economic fallout from this will probably last months.

Years. 
And the current occupant of the White House might as well start writing his exit tweet.

-Teresa

I hope it's that easy, but I confess skepticism.
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#19

Coronavirus spreads. But don't panic! (topical thread)
(02-28-2020, 02:05 AM)Thumpalumpacus Wrote:
(02-28-2020, 02:04 AM)Tres Leches Wrote:
(02-27-2020, 09:24 PM)Thumpalumpacus Wrote: The economic fallout from this will probably last months.

Years. 
And the current occupant of the White House might as well start writing his exit tweet.

-Teresa

I hope it's that easy, but I confess skepticism.

Oh, he'll never resign. That's after he loses in November. Wink

-Teresa
There is in the universe only one true divide, one real binary, life and death. Either you are living or you are not. Everything else is molten, malleable.

-Susan Faludi, In the Darkroom
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#20

Coronavirus spreads. But don't panic! (topical thread)
(02-28-2020, 02:02 AM)Tres Leches Wrote: I just opened the NY Times web page and learned a woman is hospitalized in my city with coronavirus. Apparently the hospital didn't confirm until days after she was admitted that she had the virus and she didn't travel to China. One of my best friends works in this hospital. Oof.

Health care is prohibitively expensive here, even if you have insurance. Many workplaces don't have paid sick leave. Other nations don't have these problems and yet the virus is still spreading in those places.

After the tragic Camp fire in 2018, when we had a horrible, sickening cloud of smoke overhead for 2 weeks, I bought a pack of N95 respirator masks and put them away for the next fire. I forgot about them until a few weeks ago. The same masks are now quadruple and quintuple the price online.

I'm far from being frightened but I'm putting together a worst-case-scenario dystopic pandemic emergency kit with the masks and a few other items.
I told this to a coworker today and he asked for 3 for his family. He offered to pay. I'm giving them to him tomorrow.

-Teresa
You live there?  That was the case I mentioned, the first community case in the US, meaning she didn't contract it directly overseas, and they don't even know where she contracted it yet.  Best wishes to your family! (And your mail is otw, btw, hopefully it arrives soon).

I think making a kit is a good idea.  Everyone, if they can afford it, should get 2 weeks worth of food (and water, though we just filter and bottle our own).
That's very nice of you to share your supplies and help other people get emergency kits ready.

There are no masks in my area left.  I wonder if I should try and order some online. 

Basically I just got medicine, food, including a lot of root veggies and supplies to make our own bread.  We have no idea how fast it could spread, if it spreads at all, though the CDC seems to think it will.
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#21

Coronavirus spreads. But don't panic! (topical thread)
(02-28-2020, 01:32 AM)Rainy_D Wrote:
(02-27-2020, 11:27 PM)Aroura Wrote: My understanding is that they don't yet fully understand all paths of transmission.

The confirmed case in the US had no direct contact with anyone that has traveled outside the US, so they're still trying to figure out the path in that case.

Most countries are not equipped to deal with what appears to be coming, including the ones we consider "developed".

There is so many unknowns I am not ready to become alarmed at this point. 

EDIT:
No known direct contact does not rule out passing thru the same store/resturant/bank/etc as some traveler back from a business venture in an affected area and just being the unlucky one who got the infected dollar(s) back from the cashier.

end EDIT

City of Wuhan pop 11 mill.  If 80K infections in Wuhan alone, that is 0.7% of population.  Without looking up the numbers, I think that is pretty close to an average flu season infection rate.  

Hubei provence pop 58mill.  If 80K infections out of 58Mill = infection rate of 0.14%

But I personally dont trust china numbers.  Yet we do have the cruise ship examples, where people were intermingling with a virus exposure unabated for a while to compare with and I just dont see the risk as being exceptional for most people.

Something I never heard of until yesterday:

https://www.google.com/search?q=pandemic+bonds
Isn't the infection rate on the cruise ship over 60%?

Again, the CDC says this is "possibly" more infectious than the seasonal flu's, and certainly more deadly.  Yes, it's not the plague.

I am not encouraging anyone to panic, I just hope people take it seriously enough to make sure they are prepared just in case.  Girl Scout Motto: better safe than sorry.
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#22

Coronavirus spreads. But don't panic! (topical thread)
Oh I should specify, the emergency supplies aren't because most of us are at risk of expose or illness, it's because there may be supply chain disruptions as businesses voluntarily close, and if there are hot spots here and there that force voluntary quarantines and the like. It appears some of our overseas supply chains are certain to be disrupted as it currently stands.

I'm not saying we are all gonna die. I'm just saying, don't wait to get groceries until the day you find out your city has had an outbreak and the shelves are empty.
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#23

Coronavirus spreads. But don't panic! (topical thread)
I have a couple of weeks of canned goods and the like around. Not saying it won't be boring, but everybody can have a modest supply of something to eat and drink.
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#24

Coronavirus spreads. But don't panic! (topical thread)
It appears that all information will now have to be funneled through Mike Pence.  So, here is the danger of fascism, same as the problem of ferreting out the truth in China.  We won't be able to trust the health info we are getting from our own government?



This seems to indicate that Trump doesn't want this to interfere with his re-election campaign.  Fantastic set of priorities.  Dodgy  Not surprising though.
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#25

Coronavirus spreads. But don't panic! (topical thread)
(02-28-2020, 02:11 AM)Tres Leches Wrote:
(02-28-2020, 02:05 AM)Thumpalumpacus Wrote:
(02-28-2020, 02:04 AM)Tres Leches Wrote: Years. 
And the current occupant of the White House might as well start writing his exit tweet.

-Teresa

I hope it's that easy, but I confess skepticism.

Oh, he'll never resign. That's after he loses in November. Wink

-Teresa

I don't think anything arising from this pandemic will endanger his job, unfortunately.
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