Stop a fire; start of a new one

[Rhythmcs]

If sand ever became a valuable commodity, they may just decide to get along?

Nah, sand wars.

[Antonio]

Holy sand comes only from this place not any other place

[Dānu]

[Thumpalumpacus]

Turkish-backed rebel and opposition forces, led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), are making significant territorial gains in northwestern Syria, advancing deeper into the Latakia Governorate.

The advance, which began as part of a broader offensive this week, has brought rebel units to within approximately 20 miles of Russia’s Khmeimim Air Base, a key strategic asset for Moscow along the Mediterranean coast.

Early yesterday morning, rebel forces, which include HTS and other allied factions, reached the town of Qalaat Al Madiq, located northwest of Hama. The town, which lies in a strategically important area that bridges the western coastal regions and the rest of northwestern Syria, fell into rebel hands after a swift advance that overwhelmed Syrian regime defenses.

As the rebel forces continue their westward push, they increasingly threaten Khmeimim Air Base, a critical Russian foothold in Syria that has played a pivotal role in supporting President Bashar al-Assad’s regime. The base, located just 35 kilometers (about 22 miles) from the advancing rebel lines, serves as a major hub for Russia’s air operations in the region and is integral to maintaining Moscow’s influence in Syria and the broader Middle East.

https://defence-blog.com/syrian-rebel-fo...-air-base/

... and:

Russia appears to be withdrawing key naval assets from its strategic Mediterranean base at Tartus, Syria.

On December 2, 2024, the Russian auxiliary ship Yelnya departed from Tartus, with reports indicating that two frigates, another auxiliary vessel, and a submarine have also left the port.

The move comes amidst rapid changes in the Syrian Civil War. Forces opposing the Assad regime, a long-standing Russian ally, have gained momentum and are advancing toward Damascus. While Moscow has not officially commented on the redeployment, analysts suggest the withdrawal may reflect growing concerns about the stability of the Assad government and the security of Russian military assets.

Naval analyst Droxford Maritime remarked on social media platform X, “There is a realistic possibility that this movement is directly tied to the deteriorating situation in Syria.” He highlighted the importance of Yelnya, a Project 160 Altay-class oiler, noting that it plays a critical role in sustaining Russia’s Mediterranean operations.

Tartus has been a pivotal asset for Russia’s naval strategy since 1971, providing a foothold in the Mediterranean. After years of limited use following the collapse of the Soviet Union, the base gained renewed importance during the Syrian Civil War. In recent years, Tartus became a key logistics hub for Russia’s intervention in Syria and served as a counterweight to NATO’s presence in the region.

https://defence-blog.com/russian-warship...aval-base/

For detail on the significance of these bases:

https://www.twz.com/air/russias-prized-b...be-at-risk

[Minimalist]

the security of Russian military assets.

They could redeploy them to Sevastopol and see how they do?

[pattylt]

Naval analyst Droxford Maritime…

Perfect name!

[SYZ]

Syrian rebels, in a televised address, say they have "freed" the
country's capital. While President Bashar al-Assad has reportedly fled.

 —https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-12-08/s...c_news_web

[Thumpalumpacus]

DAMASCUS, Syria (AP) — Syrians poured into streets echoing with celebratory gunfire on Sunday after a stunning rebel advance reached the capital, putting an end to the Assad family’s 50 years of iron rule but raising questions about the future of the country and the wider region.

Joyful crowds gathered in central squares in Damascus, waving the Syrian revolutionary flag in scenes that recalled the early days of the Arab Spring uprising, before a brutal crackdown and the rise of an insurgency plunged the country into a nearly 14-year civil war.

Others gleefully ransacked the presidential palace and the Assad family residence after President Bashar Assad and other top officials vanished, their whereabouts unknown. Russia, a close ally, said Assad left the country after negotiations with rebel groups and had given instructions to transfer power peacefully.

Abu Mohammed al-Golani, a former al-Qaida commander who cut ties with the group years ago and says he embraces pluralism and religious tolerance, leads the biggest rebel faction and is poised to chart the country’s future direction.

The end of Assad’s rule deals a major blow to Iran and its allies, already weakened by over a year of conflict with Israel. The rebels now face the daunting task of healing bitter divides in a country ravaged by war and still split among different armed factions. Turkey-backed opposition fighters are battling U.S.-allied Kurdish forces in the north, and the Islamic State group is still active in some remote areas.

https://apnews.com/article/syria-assad-s...765b044d31

I'm betting their conceptions of "pluralism" and "religious tolerance" are quite different than ours. But it's hard to imagine rule worse than Assad's.

[epronovost]

DAMASCUS, Syria (AP) — Syrians poured into streets echoing with celebratory gunfire on Sunday after a stunning rebel advance reached the capital, putting an end to the Assad family’s 50 years of iron rule but raising questions about the future of the country and the wider region.

Joyful crowds gathered in central squares in Damascus, waving the Syrian revolutionary flag in scenes that recalled the early days of the Arab Spring uprising, before a brutal crackdown and the rise of an insurgency plunged the country into a nearly 14-year civil war.

Others gleefully ransacked the presidential palace and the Assad family residence after President Bashar Assad and other top officials vanished, their whereabouts unknown. Russia, a close ally, said Assad left the country after negotiations with rebel groups and had given instructions to transfer power peacefully.

Abu Mohammed al-Golani, a former al-Qaida commander who cut ties with the group years ago and says he embraces pluralism and religious tolerance, leads the biggest rebel faction and is poised to chart the country’s future direction.

The end of Assad’s rule deals a major blow to Iran and its allies, already weakened by over a year of conflict with Israel. The rebels now face the daunting task of healing bitter divides in a country ravaged by war and still split among different armed factions. Turkey-backed opposition fighters are battling U.S.-allied Kurdish forces in the north, and the Islamic State group is still active in some remote areas.

https://apnews.com/article/syria-assad-s...765b044d31

I'm betting their conceptions of "pluralism" and "religious tolerance" are quite different than ours. But it's hard to imagine rule worse than Assad's.

It's probably going to go a bit like the Taliban who also promised not to do the exact same thing they did last time they were in power. To be fair though, Syria is a very diverse country when it comes down to religion and ethnicity. If they want to rule over Syria as a whole, they probably won't be able to go full theocracy like ISIS tried to ten years ago. They will probably use the Egyptian trick of a Islamic party in power that isn't obsessed by sectarianism with strong accents of nationalism. Assad has been, in effect, replaced by another, very similar, kind of dictator. I wonder how the new power will deal with the Kurds now. Assad was content to leave them on their own, but the new government is backed by Turkey which might make them more aggressive towards our former allies.

[Thumpalumpacus]

It's probably going to go a bit like the Taliban who also promised not to do the exact same thing they did last time they were in power.

That's my thinking, in a nutshell. But I think the Syrian population will accept just about anyone who delivers peace, even if they must sacrifice some.

To be fair though, Syria is a very diverse country when it comes down to religion and ethnicity. If they want to rule over Syria as a whole, they probably won't be able to go full theocracy like ISIS tried to ten years ago. They will probably use the Egyptian trick of a Islamic party in power that isn't obsessed by sectarianism with strong accents of nationalism. Assad has been, in effect, replaced by another, very similar, kind of dictator.

Right. Sizeable Christian minority, and Arab and non-Arab segments ethnically. We can once again thank the British and French for so massively fucking up the Mandates post-WWI.

I wonder how the new power will deal with the Kurds now. Assad was content to leave them on their own, but the new government is backed by Turkey which might make them more aggressive towards our former allies.

In the past I would have argued that America would tamp down that Turkish urge to have done with the Kurds, but it's clear Biden doesn't have Erdogan's respect and I doubt Trump will care one way or the other. In other words, I don't see anything stopping the Turks -- indeed, Erdogan might benefit from a war that distracts Turks from a wobbly economy.

[Thumpalumpacus]

There's also this:

Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad boarded a plane to leave the country on Saturday, according to several media reports. His exit comes 12 days after a surprise uprising made a lightning dash to the capital of Damascus after capturing several major cities along the way. Meanwhile, there are claims that the jet carrying Assad either was shot down or had mechanical problems and crashed over Northwestern Syria.

“Assad left the country for an undisclosed location, fleeing ahead of insurgents who said they had entered Damascus after a stunning advance across the country,” The Associated Press reported, citing an interview with Rami Abdurrahman of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR). Abdurrahman told the AP that Assad took a flight Sunday from Damascus.

[...]

There are unconfirmed reports that the Il-76 Ilyushin transport jet that was supposedly carrying him was either shot down or suffered a mechanical problem. Based on its location, it may have been trying to reach Russia’s airbase in Latakia, Syria. This has long been seen as among the safest place for the Syrian strongman.

“Unconfirmed information is being circulated about the sudden descent of the plane that was reportedly carrying Assad after it disappeared from radar and dropped suddenly from an altitude of over 3,650 meters to 1,070 meters in a few minutes, just outside Lebanese airspace north of Akkar,” Egyptian journalist Khaled Mahmoued posited on Twitter. “3D flight radar data of the plane suspected of carrying Bashar al-Assad indicates that it crashed. The Syrian Air IL-76 aircraft’s altitude dropped suddenly, and it seems it was shot down.”

A tweet from the same article posits:

The 3D @flightradar24 data of the jet widely suspected of carrying a fleeing Bashar al-Assad (via @ShabanianAram), if this isn't an entirely spoofed route, it looks VERY bad (for him), rapid decent after passing over Opposition held-territory near Homs.

https://www.twz.com/news-features/the-as...escape-jet

The entire article, lengthy as it is, is well-worth reading.

[Deesse23]

Now that Assads regime is toppled and he is in Moscow, there are some opportunities, some potential golden ones, under some certain preconditions.

I am talking from a EU, in particular german perspective. The opportunity to do the right thing, brag about it, and pull the carpet from under the AfD (and likes), and deal another blow to Putin, who is s strong supporter of Assad in the past and the current surge of xenophobic, nationalistic, fascists movements all over Europe. It would also be a strategically wise move. I mean, Levant, Syria...100€ to anyone who can tell me a time in human history when Syria was strategically not important!

What can be done (and its already all over german newspapers): Syrian refugees* could be offered incentives** to go back and build up their homeland. Its the right thing, according to the spirit and letter of the german constitution. The future syrian regime*** could be offered additional help. Strategically we could reach out to this area, without waging war (like PoS Putin does).

Just a few numbers to underscore what i just said: In Germany there are ca. 1mio Syrians, with 100k applications pending, and 300k being "tolerated" although their application has been rejected.

It could be a win/win/win/win situation. Could....

Edit: The Office for Migration and Asylum (BAMF) has stopped all pending applications from Syria.



* remember the big crisis a few years ago, when Merkel did what every decent human would have done, while the fascist elements were foaming at the mouth?
** And thats important: incentives, not deportation!
*** this is another crucial prerequisite: Lets hope its not Taliban-like, but something "acceptable" within the constraints given by the realities of the levant/near east.

[Antonio]

Israel has already started bombing Syria

[jerry mcmasters]

Now that Assads regime is toppled and he is in Moscow, there are some opportunities, some potential golden ones, under some certain preconditions.

I am talking from a EU, in particular german perspective. The opportunity to do the right thing, brag about it, and pull the carpet from under the AfD (and likes), and deal another blow to Putin, who is s strong supporter of Assad in the past and the current surge of xenophobic, nationalistic, fascists movements all over Europe. It would also be a strategically wise move. I mean, Levant, Syria...100€ to anyone who can tell me a time in human history when Syria was strategically not important!

What can be done (and its already all over german newspapers): Syrian refugees* could be offered incentives** to go back and build up their homeland. Its the right thing, according to the spirit and letter of the german constitution. The future syrian regime*** could be offered additional help. Strategically we could reach out to this area, without waging war (like PoS Putin does).

Just a few numbers to underscore what i just said: In Germany there are ca. 1mio Syrians, with 100k applications pending, and 300k being "tolerated" although their application has been rejected.

It could be a win/win/win/win situation. Could....

Edit: The Office for Migration and Asylum (BAMF) has stopped all pending applications from Syria.



* remember the big crisis a few years ago, when Merkel did what every decent human would have done, while the fascist elements were foaming at the mouth?
** And thats important: incentives, not deportation!
*** this is another crucial prerequisite: Lets hope its not Taliban-like, but something "acceptable" within the constraints given by the realities of the levant/near east.

Open borders no fun after all, huh.

[Minimalist]

Israel has already started bombing Syria

Are you suggesting that they ever stopped?

[Thumpalumpacus]

There are clear signs that Russian forces, including an S-400 surface-to-air missile system, are withdrawing from Khmeimim Air Base in Syria. At the same time, authorities in Russia continue to insist that no final decisions have been made about the future of their presence at Khmeimim or their naval base in Tartus since the fall of their long-time ally Bashar Al Assad last weekend. These are highly strategic and irreplaceable locations the Kremlin uses to project military power well beyond Syria.

Satellite imagery taken today of Khmeimim (also written Hmeimim) that The War Zone obtained from Maxar provides the latest evidence that a withdrawal of at least some Russian forces from the base is underway now. As seen at the top of this story and below, two very large An-124 airlifters are prominently visible at the base with their noses open, appearing to be ready to load cargo. There are also three Il-76 Candid cargo planes parked on a large open apron at the northeast end of the facility.

At least one of the Il-76s presently at Khmeimim is a Syrian Airlines aircraft and a Yakovlev Yak-40 airliner, which the Syrian flag carrier also has in its inventory, looks to be parked next to it. Smaller An-72 Coaler and An-26 Curl transports, as well as a Su-35 Flanker-E fighter, are also seen in the imagery. There may be more tactical jets under the row of shelters at the northeastern end of the base.

The Maxar images also show Russian forces are packing up the S-400 surface-to-air missile site at Khmeimim, as well as other air defense assets. What looks to be a Ka-52 attack helicopter is also seen with its rotor blades removed, likely for transport.

https://www.twz.com/air/russian-forces-a...n-air-base

[Antonio]

Israel has already started bombing Syria

Are you suggesting that they ever stopped?

Sorry should have said increased

[Thumpalumpacus]

From AP:

Rebels, suddenly in charge, met a population bursting with emotions: excitement at new freedoms; grief over years of repression; and hopes, expectations and worries about the future. Some were overwhelmed to the point of tears.

The transition has been surprisingly smooth. Reports of reprisals, revenge killings and sectarian violence have been minimal. Looting and destruction have been quickly contained, insurgent fighters disciplined. On Saturday, people went about their lives as usual in the capital, Damascus. Only a single van of fighters was seen.


There are a million ways it could go wrong.

https://apnews.com/article/syria-week-on...948264cdf1

Of course we all hope that Syria arrives at a government that represents its people fairly. But with the broad spectrum of rebel forces who collaborated to achieve this overthrow, I'm thinking that like most revolutions this one will fall into internecine fighting and then autocracy.

[Minimalist]

Their history stretches back thousands of years and that has been the model most of that time.

The odds are against them.

[Thumpalumpacus]

Their history stretches back thousands of years and that has been the model most of that time.

... and only exacerbated by the LoN Mandates that saw polyglot nations constructed out of whole cloth.