Stupid political bets

[epronovost]

Here is a thread where we, idiots with no special knowledge, make predictions on the political landscape of the world based on our limited knowledge, hunches, anxieties and prejudices. here are some of mine.

Trump will be impeached a third time and its going to be something related to him using the office of president to make a lot of money with his business and "selling" State secrets.

The Canadian Conservative Party will win the next election with a smaller margin than expected with a record low voting turnout and proceed to crash and burn in the public opinion.

A united French socialist and left-wing movement will create the surprise and win the next presidency narrowly preventing Lepen to take power.

Elon Musk will resign from his largely fictional post in less than 6 months.

The US will divest from the Ukrainian war in favor of Russia before the end of 2025. Most of the EU will do the same in 2026. in 2027, Ukraine will be de facto partitioned largely alongside the frontline. North Korea will have played a major role in pushing Russia over the finishing line and will position itself as an "arsenal of the autocracies". 

China will start coercive military actions against Taiwan in mid 2027.

Due to political pressures, being transgender will be readmitted as a serious mental illness in the US and the UK in practice if not in theory. Several transgender parents will risk losing custody of their children.

[Minimalist]

The USA is fucked....and we will take the rest of the world down into the shitter with us.

[SYZ]

The Australian Labor prime minister Anthony Albanese will be
defeated at our federal elections in May next year, and will
be replaced by the then leader of the Liberal opposition party.  

However, its current leader—the extremely unlikable Peter Dutton—
will suffer from a party no-confidence vote and will be replaced
prior to the election by Angus Taylor, Dan Tehan, or the shadow
defence minister Andrew Hastie (my favourite).

All this means fuck-all to the Americans here I'm sure!    



[AUS Labor = US (right-leaning?) Democrats, AUS Liberal = US (left-leaning?) Republicans.]

[epronovost]

The USA is fucked....and we will take the rest of the world down into the shitter with us.

How American of you... wish you hadn't, but I guess we'll have to deal with it.

So how will it be? Choked in pollution and overexploitation of natural resources of crushed under the boot of a neo-imperialist era of Great Power struggles?

/sarcasm

[Thumpalumpacus]

I can think of about 77 million Americans who made the stupidest political bet in our history.

[pattylt]

My predictions? Hmmmm…

Lawsuits galore in the hopes of curtailing some of the more egregious violations of people’s rights, food poisonings, mechanical failures leading to deaths of anything mechanical and women dying from lack of GYN care. The LGBT community fought too long and hard to just go back into the closet and I expect protests will be frequent and put down violently.

Food and clothing costs will soar…and be blamed on Bideneconomics or Nancy Pelosi if she’s still around.

Religion will become more in our faces and especially, in our children. Suppression of other faiths will be subtle at first and, if successful, pushed even more. I expect purity testing of political positions and Federal employees making sure our government works even less than now. I also expect more movement of people to either blue states or red, depending on their views. A brain drain from red states to blue ones will be cheered at first by the Trumpers…until finding skilled people…like doctors or engineers…becomes critical, forcing companies to leave red states and move to blue ones in order to remain in business and be competitive. Either state rights will supersede federal rights or a cold civil war may begin.

Yes, I’m doom and gloom at the moment and I’d love to be wrong on all of it!

[Dānu]

The Trump administration will deport a fraction of the undocumented immigrants, make a lot of noise, and the effort will quietly fade away. It will primarily be used to give Trump emergency powers.

[Dānu]

If the Lebanon ceasefire doesn't hold, Trump will switch from claiming credit for it to blaming Biden for it. Not so much a prediction as a law of nature.

[SYZ]

From the American Bar Association...

Executive orders (EO) are issued by the President of the US, acting
in his capacity as head of the executive branch, directing a federal
official or administrative agency to engage in a course of action or
refrain from a course of action. They are enforceable to the extent
that the represent a valid exercise of the President’s power (IE: the
action must be within the president’s constitutional authority).

Congress also has the power to overturn an EO by passing legislation
that invalidates it. The President, of course, may veto such legislation,
in which case Congress may override the veto by a two-thirds majority.
Congress could also effectively thwart an Executive Order calling for an
action that requires funding by using its power of the purse to deny the
necessary funding. Finally, the courts have the power to stay enforcement
or ultimately overturn an Executive Order that is found to be beyond the
President’s constitutional authority.

There is no specific provision in the US Constitution for Executive Orders.
However, Section 1 of Article II (the Executive Power) is generally viewed
as granting authority for such orders.

    I'm betting that at some stage(s) over the next four years, that
    Congress will overturn several of Trump's potentially egregious EOs.

[jerry mcmasters]

From the American Bar Association...

Executive orders (EO) are issued by the President of the US, acting
in his capacity as head of the executive branch, directing a federal
official or administrative agency to engage in a course of action or
refrain from a course of action. They are enforceable to the extent
that the represent a valid exercise of the President’s power (IE: the
action must be within the president’s constitutional authority).

Congress also has the power to overturn an EO by passing legislation
that invalidates it. The President, of course, may veto such legislation,
in which case Congress may override the veto by a two-thirds majority.
Congress could also effectively thwart an Executive Order calling for an
action that requires funding by using its power of the purse to deny the
necessary funding. Finally, the courts have the power to stay enforcement
or ultimately overturn an Executive Order that is found to be beyond the
President’s constitutional authority.

There is no specific provision in the US Constitution for Executive Orders.
However, Section 1 of Article II (the Executive Power) is generally viewed
as granting authority for such orders.

    I'm betting that at some stage(s) over the next four years, that
    Congress will overturn several of Trump's potentially egregious EOs.

EOs can at least be contested, as is in your description.  They are acts of commission, not omission, and there are remedies.  A more difficult issue is when a president simply refuses to "execute" the law, picking and choosing which laws to enforce.  A check on this could be Impeachment, though that is kind of extreme.  Otherwise, the intended check was to be the American people.  An educated, informed, and aware populace is the foundation for the whole structure, and that ship has long since sailed.  People would (the way it's supposed to work) simply recognize that the "will of the people" which was what Congress wanted, was being ignored by the President, and not reward him with another term.  I think this can be seen clearest with the Border issue, Biden is seen as someone who is not executing the will of the people, who generally frown on lax border enforcement.

[Szuchow]

Poland next president will be clownish right winger.

Poland will continue being Iran of Europe with practically illegal abortion and no same sex marriages or civic unions.

[Cavebear]

The major 3 of Trump's Cabinet nominees with be declined by the Senate.

Trumps's tariffs will cause a recession. And that recession will harm his best MAGA followers the most. But the rich supporters won't really notice the difference in their daily lives. And the poor MAGAs will blame Democrats anyway.

2026 will be a landslide win for the Democrats in the House and Senate.

Alito and Thomas will resign from the Supreme Court (in favor of high-paying corporate jobs from Trump supporters) that do not require much of their time. They will essentially resign for profit/reward, and politics so that Trump can appoint younger fanatic MAGA judges to replace them.

[epronovost]

New stupid political bets; Russia will invade Georgia again before 2030 to secure "permanently" a friendly government in the country.