The new key to the White House

[SaxonX]

I'm hard pressed to think of one especially considering who her opponent was.

Well the Dems better put more thought into it than that or they're going to get spanked every four years til the end of time.

Considering answer (Sexism and Racism ) seem pretty obviously the culprits and nothing else is suggested that makes any sense. Will go with that.

[Cavebear]

I don't know if it is wise to just give into the fact that many men believe that the vast majority of female personalities are not suited for the role of President.  Harris's run did achieve progress. She conducted her campaign with class and dignity. She demonstrated the ability to be rational and forthright.  Winning would have been a fat sight better, but trying so well could be a building block for future acceptance.

Unfortunately, the practical approach would be to nominate a white woman prior to adding more intersectional variety in a Presidential candidacy. A Vietnamese trans male with a disability may not be our next choice.

Let's say a very talented and politically experienced white woman achieved the Presidential nomination from one of the two major parties. Let us further say that she ran a very good campaign and won the popular vote by 2.9 million more votes nationwide, a margin of 2.1% of the total cast. And lost the election.

How would you say she was an "impractical choice"?

[Vorpal]

I don't know if it is wise to just give into the fact that many men believe that the vast majority of female personalities are not suited for the role of President.  Harris's run did achieve progress. She conducted her campaign with class and dignity. She demonstrated the ability to be rational and forthright.  Winning would have been a fat sight better, but trying so well could be a building block for future acceptance.

Unfortunately, the practical approach would be to nominate a white woman prior to adding more intersectional variety in a Presidential candidacy. A Vietnamese trans male with a disability may not be our next choice.

Let's say a very talented and politically experienced white woman achieved the Presidential nomination from one of the two major parties.  Let us further say that she ran a very good campaign and won the popular vote by 2.9 million more votes nationwide, a margin of 2.1% of the total cast.  And lost the election.

How would you say she was an "impractical choice"?

We have to select a woman who will win the blue wall. The first one cannot be an elitist. She cannot be shrill and yes her personality needs to be broadly likeable. She has to buck stereotypes like Obama did. We might need a closeted lesbian.
What is fair and what is workable sometimes are two different things.

[epronovost]

I'm hard pressed to think of one especially considering who her opponent was.

Well the Dems better put more thought into it than that or they're going to get spanked every four years til the end of time.

They won with the exact same policy package and team with a man 4 years ago; that win was a fairly solid win when it comes down to the popular vote. This seems to show that, while the Democrats, and liberalism in general, have some serious issue of institutional distrust, failure to articulate a positive image of the United States, etc. That the exact same politics and rhetoric, but carried by a white man can work on the national stage.

I would also like to note that the problem wasn't that Kamala Harris was a woman or black, but that she was explicitly feminist (in a very, very lukewarm way) and anti-racist (in a an even more lukewarm way to the point of supporting antimmigration proposals copied from Trump in 2016). The rejection is not of women or minorities as individuals; Republicans and the US society in general have no problem with individuals. They have a problem with extanding and integrating liberal ideals to women and ethnic minorities as a class and in a completely normative way.

In my opinion the first woman POTUS will be deeply misogynistic and socially conservative with a strong religious background (how honest will she be about those belief may be doubtful) all the while being a bit more economically Left-wing than you're average right wing politicians. She will be white and probably be blonde (or at least appear as a blonde). Imagine someone akin to Ivanka Trump.

[jerry mcmasters]

Well the Dems better put more thought into it than that or they're going to get spanked every four years til the end of time.

They won with the exact same policy package and team with a man 4 years ago; that win was a fairly solid win when it comes down to the popular vote. This seems to show that, while the Democrats, and liberalism in general, have some serious issue of institutional distrust, failure to articulate a positive image of the United States, etc. That the exact same politics and rhetoric, but carried by a white man can work on the national stage.

So basically Kamala Harris is just Joe Biden with a vagina and darker skin.  No, these are two very different politicians and the electorate have very different opinions and beliefs about each that have nothing to do with gender and race.

So basically the presidential elections of 2020 and 2024 are mirror images except in one the Dem candidate is a man and in the other the Dem candidate is a black woman, and the man won and the black woman didn't, so Sexism and Racism.  Again, no, most of the policy package might have been the same but the circumstances of the elections were monumentally different with the electorate, all of it having nothing to do with the race or gender of the Dem candidate. Hopefully this is accepted without too much detail needed from me- widespread dissatisfaction with border policy, perceptions of rising prices, rising crime, and foreign policy bungling.  (Even if these are just "right wing talking points" and Biden's governance was objectively brilliant, the perception being true alone doesn't rely on racism or sexism). 

Racism and sexism no doubt played some small part, but your analysis is overlooking some gigantically larger causal factors in her defeat.

I would also like to note that the problem wasn't that Kamala Harris was a woman or black, but that she was explicitly feminist (in a very, very lukewarm way) and anti-racist (in a an even more lukewarm way to the point of supporting antimmigration proposals copied from Trump in 2016). The rejection is not of women or minorities as individuals; Republicans and the US society in general have no problem with individuals. They have a problem with extanding and integrating liberal ideals to women and ethnic minorities as a class and in a completely normative way.

In my opinion the first woman POTUS will be deeply misogynistic and socially conservative with a strong religious background (how honest will she be about those belief may be doubtful) all the while being a bit more economically Left-wing than you're average right wing politicians. She will be white and probably be blonde (or at least appear as a blonde). Imagine someone akin to Ivanka Trump.

I agree some of these factors will be in play.  I don't think she will need to be too far to the right, she just can't be too far to the left.  She will simply need to be what successful politicians are, man or woman: in tune with the majority of the social and cultural and political conventions of the people.  Biden was chosen by the Ds in 2020 partly because he was thought to be moderate enough to not scare the center while securing the left.  Regular ol' Joe from Scranton.  Joe would never be caught on camera saying he supports taxpayer funded transgender surgery for prisoners.

[Alan V]

Biden was chosen by the Ds in 2020 partly because he was thought to be moderate enough to not scare the center while securing the left.  Regular ol' Joe from Scranton. 

I thought Harris did very well considering she was not able to slowly build up voter allegiance through the primary process.  Too bad Biden didn't bow out earlier.  Democrats dropped the ball on that one.

[TheGentlemanBastard]

Biden was chosen by the Ds in 2020 partly because he was thought to be moderate enough to not scare the center while securing the left.  Regular ol' Joe from Scranton. 

I thought Harris did very well considering she was not able to slowly build up voter allegiance through the primary process.  Too bad Biden didn't bow out earlier.  Democrats dropped the ball on that one.

Biden should either have not run for re-election, or resigned the presidency when he stepped down as the democratic candidate. Half-measures doomed Harris' bid as much as anything else.

[jerry mcmasters]

Biden was chosen by the Ds in 2020 partly because he was thought to be moderate enough to not scare the center while securing the left.  Regular ol' Joe from Scranton. 

I thought Harris did very well considering she was not able to slowly build up voter allegiance through the primary process.  Too bad Biden didn't bow out earlier.  Democrats dropped the ball on that one.

Yep.  It's funny what in hindsight seems obvious but at the time you (by which I mean me) just didn't think much of it.  I was thinking recently about "What If" when Harris was anointed, she had come out and said something like "While I am thankful for the trust being put in me, and I do feel competent and qualified for the job, I believe the best course of action would be to throw this open to all of my peers in the Dem party and let our American citizens decide which of us shall carry on.  I want to earn your trust and your vote, not just have this handed to me."  There are a million difficulties with my scenario, mainly the frantic scramble and chaos that would have followed, the breaking down of the United Front that the Dems were trying to pretend existed, but goddammit it would have been beautiful, and beautifully historic.

[AutisticWill]

America:


Born:  July 4, 1776

Died:  November 5, 2024

Cause of Death:  Suicide


Lincoln was right.

Who the fuck was Lincoln? Wasn't he a land-thief? Why should I listen to him? -- Love, Gens Z & Alpha

[Dānu]

I agree some of these factors will be in play.  I don't think she will need to be too far to the right, she just can't be too far to the left.  She will simply need to be what successful politicians are, man or woman: in tune with the majority of the social and cultural and political conventions of the people.  Biden was chosen by the Ds in 2020 partly because he was thought to be moderate enough to not scare the center while securing the left.  Regular ol' Joe from Scranton.  Joe would never be caught on camera saying he supports taxpayer funded transgender surgery for prisoners.

The culture war shit was aimed at his base and did little but encourage them to vote. Where Trump won was by increasing his ceiling by appealing to voters disaffected by inflation. The culture war issue was largely a sideshow.

[mordant]

My wife touched base with her father, who is in his 90s and on his last legs. He's a retired radiologist of some note, and was a successful businessman in multiple fields, and so no dummy. Or shouldn't be. And he's not senile. But he's thrilled that Trump won, and is certain that he will "fix everything". [sigh]

I don't really even WANT to understand the hypnotic appeal of Trump. Intellectually I get it. How you pay the slightest attention to his daily perfidies and still think he will fix ANYTHING ... I will NEVER get. It is what is so crazy-making about this situation for me. I want to leave the country mostly because I feel like I'm locked in a cell with a bunch of crazy people.

[jerry mcmasters]

I agree some of these factors will be in play.  I don't think she will need to be too far to the right, she just can't be too far to the left.  She will simply need to be what successful politicians are, man or woman: in tune with the majority of the social and cultural and political conventions of the people.  Biden was chosen by the Ds in 2020 partly because he was thought to be moderate enough to not scare the center while securing the left.  Regular ol' Joe from Scranton.  Joe would never be caught on camera saying he supports taxpayer funded transgender surgery for prisoners.

The culture war shit was aimed at his base and did little but encourage them to vote.  Where Trump won was by increasing his ceiling by appealing to voters disaffected by inflation.  The culture war issue was largely a sideshow.

It will always remain impossible to tease out the exact reasons for Harris's loss and which reasons outweighed which other reasons.  This stuff will be analyzed for years.  I think the culture war stuff was a bigger factor than you, but it's all speculation.  I'm absolutely swimming in it here in SE Texas, so I am affected and probably biased by that, but I don't know if the political culture here is wildly different than in many of the swing state communities, working class and middle class, that came up big for Trump. 

How big a causal factor do you rate sexism and racism in the Harris loss?

[Dānu]

The culture war shit was aimed at his base and did little but encourage them to vote.  Where Trump won was by increasing his ceiling by appealing to voters disaffected by inflation.  The culture war issue was largely a sideshow.

It will always remain impossible to tease out the exact reasons for Harris's loss and which reasons outweighed which other reasons.  This stuff will be analyzed for years.  I think the culture war stuff was a bigger factor than you, but it's all speculation.  I'm absolutely swimming in it here in SE Texas, so I am affected and probably biased by that, but I don't know if the political culture here is wildly different than in many of the swing state communities, working class and middle class, that came up big for Trump. 

How big a causal factor do you rate sexism and racism in the Harris loss?

I don't. I'm sure that sexism and racism and culture war issues all played a role, but the elephant in the room was the economy. During the first Trump administration, wage growth handily outpaced inflation and so people saw an increase in their real buying power over those four years. During the Biden administration, wage growth was roughly comparable to inflation, so as prices increased, the average American saw no increase in their real buying power, and some even lost relative buying power. That's not a misperception or denial of the reality that inflation is under control now. That is a real effect of the pandemic and of the economic consequences that followed. In real terms, the average American fared better under Trump even if you include the year of the pandemic. That's not an illusion.

What is an illusion is that Trump was responsible for that or that Biden was responsible for that. The perception that Trump or Biden's policies led to those outcomes is what led Americans as a whole to vote for Trump under the mistaken belief that the policies of each are what caused this situation, when neither Biden nor Trump's policies had much to do with either. Trump inherited a strong economy from Obama after Obama righted the ship following the economic crisis of 2008-2009. And now Trump will once again inherit a strong economy. Biden's policies did well, but they couldn't erase the brute fact of the situation which was that the pandemic ruined economies worldwide and fixing that takes time. It still isn't completely fixed, as wage growth is not set to exceed inflation until Q2 2025. In short, Trump has enjoyed two relatively good economies thanks to Democratic presidents. If he can avoid screwing that up, his legacy will be viewed favorably. I don't have much confidence in that, but we shall see.

In short, it's the economy stupid.

[epronovost]

So basically Kamala Harris is just Joe Biden with a vagina and darker skin.  No, these are two very different politicians and the electorate have very different opinions and beliefs about each that have nothing to do with gender and race.

Name them.

[jerry mcmasters]

So basically Kamala Harris is just Joe Biden with a vagina and darker skin.  No, these are two very different politicians and the electorate have very different opinions and beliefs about each that have nothing to do with gender and race.

Name them.

I said, "Joe would never be caught on camera saying he supports taxpayer funded transgender surgery for prisoners."  Discount the importance of the culture war shit and the left is just going to get spanked again in four years.

My other point is by far the stronger, though.  The campaigns of 2020 and 2024 are different animals for the obvious reasons I mentioned and many more reasons I didn't even get to.  There aren't a lot of people that voted for Trump that think, "I love our border policy, high inflation, and our brilliant performance in Afghanistan, and I was gonna reward the Democratic party with my vote the way I did with Biden...but it's a woman!"   If Kamala Harris had been instead white man Kam Harris, everything else about him being the same as her, "he" would have lost but by a smaller margin.  Why not an equal loss with what Kamala got?  Because sexism and racism is a factor.  Other factors are gargantuan in comparison.

[Cavebear]

Let's say a very talented and politically experienced white woman achieved the Presidential nomination from one of the two major parties.  Let us further say that she ran a very good campaign and won the popular vote by 2.9 million more votes nationwide, a margin of 2.1% of the total cast.  And lost the election.

How would you say she was an "impractical choice"?

We have to select a woman who will win the blue wall. The first one cannot be an elitist. She cannot be shrill and yes her personality needs to be broadly likeable. She has to buck stereotypes like Obama did. We might need a closeted lesbian.
What is fair and what is workable sometimes are two different things.

Well, you mentioned "shrill", "elitist", and "likable"... I didn't consider Harris to be "shrill".

First, she spoke with a woman's voice just as I speak with a man's voice.

Second, I can't see her as "elitist". She had a college career about like mine (working at minimum wage jobs and then getting into government work). ABC News says "After Harris, in 2014, married Doug Emhoff, who was then an entertainment lawyer, her net worth increased significantly due to the couple's combined assets, a review of her tax records and financial disclosures shows. Before then, Harris' income came mostly from her public salaries as district attorney of San Francisco and attorney general of California."

Third, I consider her very "likable". She speaks in direct language, seems genuinely friendly to others, and seems to want a bi-partisan government. Trump glowers; Harris smiles.

And, not personally directed at you, it seems to me that most guys assume that a powerful woman has to be a lesbian (so they can explain why they dislike the woman in some terms that are sort of undefined about ability). Frankly, I don't give a damn.

I do agree that "what is fair and what is workable sometimes are two different things". Politics is often about perception more than thoughtful policy.

[epronovost]

I said, "Joe would never be caught on camera saying he supports taxpayer funded transgender surgery for prisoners."  Discount the importance of the culture war shit and the left is just going to get spanked again in four years.

Transmisogyny is misogyny Jerry.

"I love our border policy, high inflation, and our brilliant performance in Afghanistan, and I was gonna reward the Democratic party with my vote the way I did with Biden...but it's a woman!" 

Can you please adopt a frame of analysis and critique of sexism and racism that is slightly more sophisticated than that of a Sunday morning cartoon aimed at children younger than 7? I don't think this obvious strawman relates in any way shape or form to the role of racism and sexism in the election. That's not even how sexism and racism work as a bias in the first place; it's not even close to representing sexism and racism as beliefs and frame works either.

[Cavebear]

Biden was chosen by the Ds in 2020 partly because he was thought to be moderate enough to not scare the center while securing the left.  Regular ol' Joe from Scranton. 

I thought Harris did very well considering she was not able to slowly build up voter allegiance through the primary process.  Too bad Biden didn't bow out earlier.  Democrats dropped the ball on that one.

The Dems should have recognized the "age issue" earlier. But Biden seemed alert and had a lot of experience. Still, I recall watching the Biden/Trump debate and thought "OMG, he's my Dad entering dementia"... As the current President, he was still "functioning", but 4 years from now? No.

Trump didn't win because he was Trump (he is losing his cognitive abilities too). He won because the Dems couldn't abandon Biden (through loyalty and respect) early enough for a new candidate to mount an effective campaign. Harris really did her best, given a short campaign. And I remain convinced that Harris would have been a far better President (domestically and internationally) than Trump was or ever will be.

But I heard a good analogy on MSNBC. Something like "if you train one boxer for 6 months and another for 6 weeks, the one with more training is likely to win". Trump has been running for presidency for 9 years and has gained a lot of "training". Harris didn't have the same experience. Yes I know she ran in 2020, but the warm soup of Primaries isn't the boiling pot of a Presidential campaign.

[jerry mcmasters]

I said, "Joe would never be caught on camera saying he supports taxpayer funded transgender surgery for prisoners."  Discount the importance of the culture war shit and the left is just going to get spanked again in four years.

 
Transmisogyny is misogyny Jerry.

 
Ah, now I see how the game is played.  The sexism you refer to isn’t about the gender of Harris, but the gender of people involved in a controversial social issue.  Lol, you know you could have just said that the first time, even a seven year old can be clear and straightforward.  Let me guess:  by racism, you didn’t mean she lost because too many people refused to vote for her because she is black, she lost because “Racism,” i.e., that thing that people have that disagree with you on large controversial social, political, and cultural issues like border policy, crime, etc.  That's not sophisticated analysis, E, that's an inability to explain yourself simply and clearly.
 

"I love our border policy, high inflation, and our brilliant performance in Afghanistan, and I was gonna reward the Democratic party with my vote the way I did with Biden...but it's a woman!" 

 
Can you please adopt a frame of analysis and critique of sexism and racism that is slightly more sophisticated than that of a Sunday morning cartoon aimed at children younger than 7? I don't think this obvious strawman relates in any way shape or form to the role of racism and sexism in the election. That's not even how sexism and racism work as a bias in the first place; it's not even close to representing sexism and racism as beliefs and frame works either.

 
Your statement that I took issue with:
 

They won with the exact same policy package and team with a man 4 years ago; that win was a fairly solid win when it comes down to the popular vote. This seems to show that, while the Democrats, and liberalism in general, have some serious issue of institutional distrust, failure to articulate a positive image of the United States, etc. That the exact same politics and rhetoric, but carried by a white man can work on the national stage.

 
A reasonable common sense reading of that is that it is the difference between candidates over four years in their individual gender and race, not anything else, that is the reason for the loss.  Is your position that it wasn’t the gender and race of Kamala Harris herself that you were talking about, rather it was the gender and racial aspects of controversial political issues like trans issues, southern border migrants, crime and protests, etc.?  Please clear this up.

[Cavebear]

My wife touched base with her father, who is in his 90s and on his last legs. He's a retired radiologist of some note, and was a successful businessman in multiple fields, and so no dummy. Or shouldn't be. And he's not senile. But he's thrilled that Trump won, and is certain that he will "fix everything". [sigh]

I don't really even WANT to understand the hypnotic appeal of Trump. Intellectually I get it. How you pay the slightest attention to his daily perfidies and still think he will fix ANYTHING ... I will NEVER get. It is what is so crazy-making about this situation for me. I want to leave the country mostly because I feel like I'm locked in a cell with a bunch of crazy people.

My house is too filled with "stuff" to move. And would Canada or Australia want me and my cats?

[epronovost]

 Is your position that it wasn’t the gender and race of Kamala Harris herself that you were talking about, rather it was the gender and racial aspects of controversial political issues like trans issues, southern border migrants, crime and protests, etc.?  Please clear this up.

You might have missed that but I clarify the concept in the OP and later down the line in post 29. Does this clears up the confusion?

[Dānu]

[jerry mcmasters]

 Is your position that it wasn’t the gender and race of Kamala Harris herself that you were talking about, rather it was the gender and racial aspects of controversial political issues like trans issues, southern border migrants, crime and protests, etc.?  Please clear this up.

You might have missed that but I clarify the concept in the OP and later down the line in post 29. Does this clears up the confusion?

GODDAMMIT

I would like to publicly apologize to Epronovost.  I misunderstood the second paragraph, I thought it was adding the factor of her being anti-racist and feminist to the first paragraph, as if "in addition" to pure racism and sexism towards Harris as a black woman.  Rereading it, the second paragraph contradicts and replaces the first paragraph, but I was off to the races and with the first paragraph and couldn't for the life of me understand why you were holding the position implied in the first. 

I went from being pretty pissed off at you for holding to a ridiculous position (that you didn't really hold) to "Uh oh" in about a nanosecond.

[epronovost]

You might have missed that but I clarify the concept in the OP and later down the line in post 29. Does this clears up the confusion?

GODDAMMIT

I would like to publicly apologize to Epronovost.  I misunderstood the second paragraph, I thought it was adding the factor of her being anti-racist and feminist to the first paragraph, as if "in addition" to pure racism and sexism towards Harris as a black woman.  Rereading it, the second paragraph contradicts and replaces the first paragraph, but I was off to the races and with the first paragraph and couldn't for the life of me understand why you were holding the position implied in the first. 

I went from being pretty pissed off at you for holding to a ridiculous position (that you didn't really hold) to "Uh oh" in about a nanosecond.

Sorry about that; I should have been clearer.

[jerry mcmasters]

It will always remain impossible to tease out the exact reasons for Harris's loss and which reasons outweighed which other reasons.  This stuff will be analyzed for years.  I think the culture war stuff was a bigger factor than you, but it's all speculation.  I'm absolutely swimming in it here in SE Texas, so I am affected and probably biased by that, but I don't know if the political culture here is wildly different than in many of the swing state communities, working class and middle class, that came up big for Trump. 

How big a causal factor do you rate sexism and racism in the Harris loss?

I don't.  I'm sure that sexism and racism and culture war issues all played a role, but the elephant in the room was the economy.  During the first Trump administration, wage growth handily outpaced inflation and so people saw an increase in their real buying power over those four years.  During the Biden administration, wage growth was roughly comparable to inflation, so as prices increased, the average American saw no increase in their real buying power, and some even lost relative buying power.  That's not a misperception or denial of the reality that inflation is under control now.  That is a real effect of the pandemic and of the economic consequences that followed.  In real terms, the average American fared better under Trump even if you include the year of the pandemic.  That's not an illusion.  

What is an illusion is that Trump was responsible for that or that Biden was responsible for that.  The perception that Trump or Biden's policies led to those outcomes is what led Americans as a whole to vote for Trump under the mistaken belief that the policies of each are what caused this situation, when neither Biden nor Trump's policies had much to do with either.  Trump inherited a strong economy from Obama after Obama righted the ship following the economic crisis of 2008-2009.  And now Trump will once again inherit a strong economy.  Biden's policies did well, but they couldn't erase the brute fact of the situation which was that the pandemic ruined economies worldwide and fixing that takes time.  It still isn't completely fixed, as wage growth is not set to exceed inflation until Q2 2025.  In short, Trump has enjoyed two relatively good economies thanks to Democratic presidents.  If he can avoid screwing that up, his legacy will be viewed favorably.  I don't have much confidence in that, but we shall see.

In short, it's the economy stupid.

It's a pie chart of causes and I also see the economy as one of the biggest slices.  The Big Three I speculate are Economy, Culture War, and Border.  Other factors are a multitude of little slices.  But I don't know how this stuff can be accurately tracked or quantified, so it's all just broad speculation.

I wonder how much Celebrity endorsements matter.  Obviously not something that can turn a vote on its own, but in adding to a cumulative argument, pushing one towards a candidate even a little.  I wonder if there's not some counter-productiveness going on with these things; if I hear Mark Ruffalo's fucking political opinion one more time I'm going to turn into the Hulk myself.