Afghanistan - back to square one

[Bucky Ball]

Across Afghanistan, there are echoes of what the Taliban did in the 1990s when they seized power after a brutal civil war. The Taliban wrested order out of chaos, imposing harsh rules on Afghan society until they were toppled in the U.S. invasion in 2001.

In the two decades since, the Taliban have fought the Afghan government and its international allies to regain land and power. Analysts say the insurgents have been growing stronger for years. Now, as American and NATO troops withdraw, the Taliban appear even more emboldened and are wresting more territory from the U.S.-backed Afghan government.

[...]

The Taliban have been accelerating a years-old trend of seizing districts since the U.S. scaled back its airstrikes in support of Afghan forces following the deal the Trump administration struck with the Taliban in February last year, according to Jonathan Schroden, an expert at the Center for Naval Analyses in Arlington, Va.

[...]

"Things have gotten notably worse over the last year," Schroden says. "What you're seeing the Taliban do now is not just taking rural areas, but taking rural areas that are increasingly closer to significant cities, provincial capitals, for example, and effectively surrounding them and also cutting the roads that connect to them."

A recent quarterly inspector general report to Congress said, as of February, the Taliban had surrounded five provincial capitals, including Kandahar, Afghanistan's second largest city. The insurgents have doubled their territory since 2018, according to Bill Roggio, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, who closely follows Taliban military gains. "And keep in mind: That was when U.S. forces were there," he says.

https://www.npr.org/2021/06/05/100208501...orces-exit

The US military can do a lot of things, but nation-building is not one of those things. We should have withdrawn the military as soon as we nailed bin Laden.

I believe bin Laden was nailed in Pakistan.
The US went into Afghanistan in 2001. Bin Laden was nailed in 2011.
"As soon as' somehow doesn't fit here.

Afghanistan is fated to be a shithole country as long as Islamic Fundamentalism poisons the place.
If and when it decides to join even the 18th Century, it will be because the people who live there decide to throw off their oppressors.
No one can do that for them.

[jerry mcmasters]

Flying from where?

Don't know if you're aware, but the US, love it or hate it, is kind of a big deal.  The US can make it close enough to do the job.

[Fireball]

That shit has been going on for millennia. It's a sad state of affairs for people there, but short of nuking it from orbit, it isn't going to change. I do not advocate nuking it from orbit, btw.

[Minimalist]

Flying from where?

Don't know if you're aware, but the US, love it or hate it, is kind of a big deal.  The US can make it close enough to do the job.

So in addition to everything else you know fuckall about drones.  

The Reaper can stay in the air for 40 hours but if Pakistan tells us to go fuck ourselves - ( probable as they are working with the Taliban ) it would be a minimum 9 hour flight to get a Reaper ( which is slow ) on target.  If you send out a "gooks in the wire" emergency call, do you want to wait that long?

[jerry mcmasters]

Flying from where?

Don't know if you're aware, but the US, love it or hate it, is kind of a big deal.  The US can make it close enough to do the job.

So in addition to everything else you know fuckall about drones.  

The Reaper can stay in the air for 40 hours but if Pakistan tells us to go fuck ourselves - ( probable as they are working with the Taliban ) it would be a minimum 9 hour flight to get a Reaper ( which is slow ) on target.  If you send out a "gooks in the wire" emergency call, do you want to wait that long?

Why would there be a "gooks in the wire" emergency call?  The whole point is to pull out the ground troops.  Are you saying the US isn't capable of surveilling an area in Afghanistan and then eliminating the threat?

[Minimalist]

How long do you think the Afghan "Army" will last without air support?

They are getting the snot smacked out of them now WITH air support.


When we leave the Taliban will move in whenever they want and, here's a prediction, the Afghan Army will desert in droves.

[jerry mcmasters]

How long do you think the Afghan "Army" will last without air support?

They are getting the snot smacked out of them now WITH air support.


When we leave the Taliban will move in whenever they want and, here's a prediction, the Afghan Army will desert in droves.

Is this directed to me?  If so, how does it relate to anything I said?

[Minimalist]

The post immediately above mine.

It seems to me that you don't know what you are talking about.  WE are leaving.  Fuckface said it and Biden agrees with it and it was the way the war was always going to end.  And do you know why?  BECAUSE THEY FUCKING LIVE THERE.


Learn something.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-...story.html

There is no guarantee that the weak central government can preserve the hard-fought advances in Afghanistan, including for women, or that it can hold on to power at all. U.S. intelligence agencies have assessed that the Afghan government could fall in six months once the U.S. withdrawal is complete.

A Taliban offensive across northern Afghanistan has exposed the vulnerabilities of local security forces, which will face militants without foreign air power and combat support for the first time in coming months.

Turn off FOX once in a while.

[jerry mcmasters]

The post immediately above mine.

It seems to me that you don't know what you are talking about.  WE are leaving.  Fuckface said it and Biden agrees with it and it was the way the war was always going to end.  And do you know why?  BECAUSE THEY FUCKING LIVE THERE.


Learn something.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-...story.html

There is no guarantee that the weak central government can preserve the hard-fought advances in Afghanistan, including for women, or that it can hold on to power at all. U.S. intelligence agencies have assessed that the Afghan government could fall in six months once the U.S. withdrawal is complete.

A Taliban offensive across northern Afghanistan has exposed the vulnerabilities of local security forces, which will face militants without foreign air power and combat support for the first time in coming months.

Turn off FOX once in a while.

The post immediately above yours?  "That shit has been going on for millennia. It's a sad state of affairs for people there, but short of nuking it from orbit, it isn't going to change. I do not advocate nuking it from orbit, btw."

Oh.  Sorry for interrupting, you two go on.

[Minimalist]

No wonder Thump thinks you're an asshole.

Post #80

[Deesse23]

How long do you think the Afghan "Army" will last without air support?

They are getting the snot smacked out of them now WITH air support.


When we leave the Taliban will move in whenever they want and, here's a prediction, the Afghan Army will desert in droves.

*cough*ARVN*cough*

[Cavebear]

Flying from where?

Don't know if you're aware, but the US, love it or hate it, is kind of a big deal.  The US can make it close enough to do the job.

So in addition to everything else you know fuckall about drones.  

The Reaper can stay in the air for 40 hours but if Pakistan tells us to go fuck ourselves - ( probable as they are working with the Taliban ) it would be a minimum 9 hour flight to get a Reaper ( which is slow ) on target.  If you send out a "gooks in the wire" emergency call, do you want to wait that long?

Afghanistan is doomed to return to medieval existence.  

I said at the start of this war that Bin Laden should have been treated as a criminal for Interpol to deal with and catch him and I maintain it now.  We have formally announced we failed.  Because there IS no actual government in Afghanistan.  The very concept of "general governance" is alien to the thoughts of the populace and crazed warlords. The whole area is a cesspool of locally-controlled theist fanaticism and will be for the foreseeable future.  There not only "isn't" but never "was" a chance we could change the basically insane theistic culture there.

It gives me little pleasure to be right in this case.

[jerry mcmasters]

No wonder Thump thinks you're an asshole.

Post #80

Let's work through the conversation and clarify.  I said "The US can't be the police of the world, and we suck at it when we try. Just have those drones ready to break up terrorist shit."  

You said: "Flying from where?"

Which implies some kind of logistical issue, need for land or sea bases, technology, etc.  Fair point.  

I replied: "Don't know if you're aware, but the US, love it or hate it, is kind of a big deal.  The US can make it close enough to do the job."

So far so good?  Pretty clear I'm talking about using drones to stop terrorist threats to America; we have satellites and we may have a few boots on the ground, and probably we can identify and disrupt or eliminate concentrations of Al Q type training camps and terrorist leadership that might be planning 9-11 type activities.  100 percent effective, nah, but better than continuing to try to make the World Safe for Democracy by nation building, which works nowhere, least of all in Afghanistan.

Your reply: 

So in addition to everything else you know fuckall about drones.  The Reaper can stay in the air for 40 hours but if Pakistan tells us to go fuck ourselves - ( probable as they are working with the Taliban ) it would be a minimum 9 hour flight to get a Reaper ( which is slow ) on target.  If you send out a "gooks in the wire" emergency call, do you want to wait that long?"

I don't need to be a drone technical wonk to know the US can call down great and terrible rain on a target of its choosing in Afghanistan.  A terrorist training camp or location of terrorist leadership won't have American soldiers or Afghan friendlies in it.  Now if you want to talk about ethics and collatoral damage and mistakes being made, that's a different complaint, but your technical issue about a particular weapon's range and an imaginary problem of "gooks in the wire" (friendlies on or near site) doesn't present any problems for my general suggestion of how to handle the situation going forward. 

So I replied:  "Why would there be a "gooks in the wire" emergency call?  The whole point is to pull out the ground troops.  Are you saying the US isn't capable of surveilling an area in Afghanistan and then eliminating the threat?"

Then you get even farther off point, but this next quote wasn't addressed to me so I wasn't sure it was continuing the discussion with me; notice you didn't answer my question and just bring up the Afghan army out of the blue.

How long do you think the Afghan "Army" will last without air support?

They are getting the snot smacked out of them now WITH air support.

When we leave the Taliban will move in whenever they want and, here's a prediction, the Afghan Army will desert in droves.

The Afghan army was no part of my prescription for what we should be doing, so that's why I wasn't sure you were even replying to me, it's so off topic.  The survival of a friendly government and army would be great but not necessary for what I am describing; most likely they won't survive without continuing massive US investment, which I think all of us are sick of.  So I think what I describe remains the least bad of bad options on what to do over there.

[Minimalist]

I don't need to be a drone technical wonk to know the US can call down great and terrible rain on a target of its choosing in Afghanistan.

What fucking good would that do when you need close air support to repel an attack and our closest base is a carrier 1,000 miles away?

As for your grander, genocidal, wishes.... yeah, we could kill lots of Afghans.  But we can't kill them all and we can't even bomb them back to the Stone Age because they are already there.

The Afghan army was no part of my prescription for what we should be doing, so that's why I wasn't sure you were even replying to me, it's so off topic.

The entire thread is about how Afghanistan is a complete clusterfuck and the only thing keeping it's "government" in power is us and WE ARE FUCKING LEAVING.  I would think that even you can handle that but, perhaps not.

[Thumpalumpacus]

I believe bin Laden was nailed in Pakistan.

Of course he was.

The US went into Afghanistan in 2001. Bin Laden was nailed in 2011.
"As soon as' somehow doesn't fit here.

I think capturing or killing him, after 9/11, was the only justifiable victory condition for invading Afghanistan in the first place. "As soon as" is a perfectly apt description.

[jerry mcmasters]

I don't need to be a drone technical wonk to know the US can call down great and terrible rain on a target of its choosing in Afghanistan.

What fucking good would that do when you need close air support to repel an attack and our closest base is a carrier 1,000 miles away?

As for your grander, genocidal, wishes.... yeah, we could kill lots of Afghans.  But we can't kill them all and we can't even bomb them back to the Stone Age because they are already there.

The Afghan army was no part of my prescription for what we should be doing, so that's why I wasn't sure you were even replying to me, it's so off topic.

The entire thread is about how Afghanistan is a complete clusterfuck and the only thing keeping it's "government" in power is us and WE ARE FUCKING LEAVING.  I would think that even you can handle that but, perhaps not.

Min I'm way over your head on this and I can't keep trying to pull you up to comprehend my very basic points.  Keep punching your strawman.

[Minimalist]

Your head is up your ass.

[Thumpalumpacus]

Another couple of point regarding airstrikes:

They tend to be more accurate with direction from the ground troops they're supporting. We won't have that when our ground troops leave.

Afghanistan is mountainous country, which reduces the effectiveness of air attacks, generally.

[Minimalist]

More commentary.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/04/opinions/...index.html

The many US blunders that contributed to looming disaster in Afghanistan

The disaster has been "looming" since we went in.

It's like the moral of that movie WARGAME.  "The only way to win is not to play."

[Minimalist]

And we haven't even left yet.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-57720103

Afghanistan: Soldiers flee to Tajikistan after militant clashes

More than 1,000 Afghan soldiers have fled to neighbouring Tajikistan after clashing with Taliban militants, officials have said.

The troops retreated over the border to "save their own lives", according to a statement by Tajikistan's border guard.

[Minimalist]

Looks as if the resistance to Chinese moves has already begun in Pakistan.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/16/world...blast.html

Blast That Killed Chinese Workers in Pakistan Was a Terrorist Attack, Officials Say

Pakistani officials had previously suggested that an accident sent a company bus into a ravine. Investigators now believe a vehicle packed with explosives rammed the workers’ convoy.

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — The explosion that killed nine Chinese workers and four others near a hydroelectric project in Pakistan on Wednesday was a terrorist attack, not an accident as officials in Pakistan initially suggested, according to a statement by the Chinese government and a top Pakistan official close to the investigation.
A vehicle driven by a suicide attacker and laden with explosives rammed a convoy of Chinese workers headed to the project site in Dasu, a remote town north of the capital, Islamabad, the official said, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss a security matter.
The explosion badly damaged two buses carrying workers from the China Gezhouba Group Co., a construction company based in Wuhan. One of the buses veered off the unpaved road and down a steep slope where it came to rest on the bank of the churning Indus River.
Chinese workers and diplomats have been targeted in previous attacks in the country, though Wednesday’s was the deadliest so far.

But that isn't the worrisome part.  This is:

No group has claimed responsibility, and officials are continuing to piece together exactly what happened. A Chinese team that will assist Pakistani investigators in the bombing probe arrived in Islamabad Friday, officials said.

The attack has highlighted Chinese security fears in Pakistan, where China’s government and companies have invested heavily in infrastructure projects as part of the country’s sweeping “belt and road” initiative. The Dasu dam is one of several major Chinese projects, including hydroelectric projects and coal-fired power plants, that have helped ease Pakistan’s chronic electrical shortages.

First they will send "investigators."  Then they will send "advisors."  Then they will send soldiers to guard those installations.  Then they will send more soldiers to interdict the "terrorists."  And the whole rotten, fucking, mess will begin again.

[Thumpalumpacus]

First they will send "investigators."  Then they will send "advisors."  Then they will send soldiers to guard those installations.  Then they will send more soldiers to interdict the "terrorists."  And the whole rotten, fucking, mess will begin again.

Better "them" than "us". As much as we'd like to fix that country, we cannot do that until they want to themselves. If the Chinese feel like weighing in, it ain't our circus, ain't our monkeys.

[Minimalist]

Couldn't agree more..... except, sooner or later we'll start arming the rebels because some asshole senator will swear he has found "moderates" to do our bidding.

[Thumpalumpacus]

Couldn't agree more..... except, sooner or later we'll start arming the rebels because some asshole senator will swear he has found "moderates" to do our bidding.

So you're expecting us to learn from experience ... got it.

[Minimalist]

Or not.