03-17-2021, 01:15 PM
(This post was last modified: 03-17-2021, 01:16 PM by mordant.)
Coronavirus spreads. But don't panic! (topical thread)
Coronavirus spreads. But don't panic! (topical thread)
This week's 7 day numbers for the US.
Another 23% week-over-week drop in deaths, a more modest 5.7% drop in new cases. Deaths are under 10,000 for the week for the first time since about early November.
Also, a big revision of the active vs resolved cases last Thursday which I haven't found an explanation for, but 1 in 38 active cases became 1 in 45, which is good. It's 1 in 46 now. Graphs I can find of new vs "cured" are wandering around right now, kind of directionless. On the one hand, the vaccines are starting to exert itself against new cases despite generally poor uptake; on the other hand, Illinois and Michigan in particular are reeling under a new surge, driven, quite predictably, by reopened K-8 schools. Many new cases in both teachers and students in district after district. If I had to guess, it's probably the British variant asserting dominance, and that is much more transmissible by children.
Also we should pass 550,000 total deaths in the US today, at least per WorldOMeter (other sources are always a few percentage points behind).
+------------+-------+---------+------------------+-------------+-------------------+
|Date |Deaths |New cases|1 in x total cases|1 in x deaths|1 in x active cases|
+------------+-------+---------+------------------+-------------|-------------------+
|Wed Mar 10 | 1,610 | 61,360| 11 | 613 | 38 |
|Thu Mar 11 | 1,605 | 62,913| 11 | 611 | 45 |
|Fri Mar 12 | 1,529 | 68,216| 11 | 609 | 45 |
|Sat Mar 13 | 1,038 | 51,899| 11 | 608 | 45 |
|Sun Mar 14 | 661 | 42,584| 11 | 607 | 45 |
|Mon Mar 15 | 831 | 46,390| 11 | 606 | 46 |
|Tue Mar 16 | 1,248 | 53,231| 11 | 605 | 46 |
+------------+-------+---------+------------------+-------------|-------------------+
|Weekly total| 8,522 | 386,593| (avg 1,217 deaths/day, 55,228 cases/day) |
+------------+-------+---------+------------------+-------------|-------------------+
Total deaths as of Mar 16: 549,367
Record deaths: 4,491 on Jan 12
Record new cases: 307,607 on Jan 08
Another 23% week-over-week drop in deaths, a more modest 5.7% drop in new cases. Deaths are under 10,000 for the week for the first time since about early November.
Also, a big revision of the active vs resolved cases last Thursday which I haven't found an explanation for, but 1 in 38 active cases became 1 in 45, which is good. It's 1 in 46 now. Graphs I can find of new vs "cured" are wandering around right now, kind of directionless. On the one hand, the vaccines are starting to exert itself against new cases despite generally poor uptake; on the other hand, Illinois and Michigan in particular are reeling under a new surge, driven, quite predictably, by reopened K-8 schools. Many new cases in both teachers and students in district after district. If I had to guess, it's probably the British variant asserting dominance, and that is much more transmissible by children.
Also we should pass 550,000 total deaths in the US today, at least per WorldOMeter (other sources are always a few percentage points behind).
+------------+-------+---------+------------------+-------------+-------------------+
|Date |Deaths |New cases|1 in x total cases|1 in x deaths|1 in x active cases|
+------------+-------+---------+------------------+-------------|-------------------+
|Wed Mar 10 | 1,610 | 61,360| 11 | 613 | 38 |
|Thu Mar 11 | 1,605 | 62,913| 11 | 611 | 45 |
|Fri Mar 12 | 1,529 | 68,216| 11 | 609 | 45 |
|Sat Mar 13 | 1,038 | 51,899| 11 | 608 | 45 |
|Sun Mar 14 | 661 | 42,584| 11 | 607 | 45 |
|Mon Mar 15 | 831 | 46,390| 11 | 606 | 46 |
|Tue Mar 16 | 1,248 | 53,231| 11 | 605 | 46 |
+------------+-------+---------+------------------+-------------|-------------------+
|Weekly total| 8,522 | 386,593| (avg 1,217 deaths/day, 55,228 cases/day) |
+------------+-------+---------+------------------+-------------|-------------------+
Total deaths as of Mar 16: 549,367
Record deaths: 4,491 on Jan 12
Record new cases: 307,607 on Jan 08
