02-17-2021, 02:28 PM
(This post was last modified: 02-17-2021, 02:29 PM by mordant.)
Coronavirus spreads. But don't panic! (topical thread)
Coronavirus spreads. But don't panic! (topical thread)
This week's US Covid numbers. Takeaways:
1) Deaths down another 22% over last week, a considerable acceleration in drop.
2) New cases down another 24% over last week, continuing a trend that has held now for 6 weeks.
3) Daily deaths just below 1,000 for the first time in forever on Monday.
4) Recoveries continue beating new cases by a small margin. Keeping in mind that the definitions of both are rather ... fungible.
5) Total deaths since the start of the pandemic per World-O-Meter stand at just a whisker shy of 500,000 and will pass that sum today. The media won't report this for 2 or 3 days because the more widely-reported source's more conservative counts lag by a couple of percentage points.
As a CDC spokesperson emphasized last week, 1 thru 4 above is great and encouraging but is still falling from absurdly high numbers (5) and can easily reverse if vigilance is not maintained. Also, she said, the government, in general, is not maintaining vigilance, as more often than not, it's caving to the demands of business for as full a reopening as possible, and thus buying into wishful thinking about how this can be done "safely".
Prediction: we'll continue to see-saw between outbreaks / shutdowns and reopenings, and there is zero chance we'll be like New Zealand, which through a combination of extremely competent leadership and an island economy, has all but declared Covid eradicated and has largely returned to normal.
+------------+-------+---------+------------------+-------------+-------------------+
|Date |Deaths |New cases|1 in x total cases|1 in x deaths|1 in x active cases|
+------------+-------+---------+------------------+-------------|-------------------+
|Wed Feb 10 | 3,436 | 97,501| 12 | 683 | 35 |
|Thu Feb 11 | 3,259 | 106,795| 12 | 679 | 35 |
|Fri Feb 12 | 3,054 | 104,273| 12 | 674 | 35 |
|Sat Feb 13 | 2,272 | 86,484| 12 | 670 | 35 |
|Sun Feb 14 | 1,114 | 66,466| 12 | 668 | 35 |
|Mon Feb 15 | 955 | 52,904| 12 | 667 | 35 |
|Tue Feb 16 | 1,787 | 63,398| 12 | 664 | 35 |
+------------+-------+---------+------------------+-------------|-------------------+
|Weekly total|15,877 | 577,821| (avg 2,268 deaths/day, 82,546 cases / day) |
+------------+-------+---------+------------------+-------------|-------------------+
Record deaths: 4,491 on Jan 12
Record new cases: 307,607 on Jan 08
1) Deaths down another 22% over last week, a considerable acceleration in drop.
2) New cases down another 24% over last week, continuing a trend that has held now for 6 weeks.
3) Daily deaths just below 1,000 for the first time in forever on Monday.
4) Recoveries continue beating new cases by a small margin. Keeping in mind that the definitions of both are rather ... fungible.
5) Total deaths since the start of the pandemic per World-O-Meter stand at just a whisker shy of 500,000 and will pass that sum today. The media won't report this for 2 or 3 days because the more widely-reported source's more conservative counts lag by a couple of percentage points.
As a CDC spokesperson emphasized last week, 1 thru 4 above is great and encouraging but is still falling from absurdly high numbers (5) and can easily reverse if vigilance is not maintained. Also, she said, the government, in general, is not maintaining vigilance, as more often than not, it's caving to the demands of business for as full a reopening as possible, and thus buying into wishful thinking about how this can be done "safely".
Prediction: we'll continue to see-saw between outbreaks / shutdowns and reopenings, and there is zero chance we'll be like New Zealand, which through a combination of extremely competent leadership and an island economy, has all but declared Covid eradicated and has largely returned to normal.
+------------+-------+---------+------------------+-------------+-------------------+
|Date |Deaths |New cases|1 in x total cases|1 in x deaths|1 in x active cases|
+------------+-------+---------+------------------+-------------|-------------------+
|Wed Feb 10 | 3,436 | 97,501| 12 | 683 | 35 |
|Thu Feb 11 | 3,259 | 106,795| 12 | 679 | 35 |
|Fri Feb 12 | 3,054 | 104,273| 12 | 674 | 35 |
|Sat Feb 13 | 2,272 | 86,484| 12 | 670 | 35 |
|Sun Feb 14 | 1,114 | 66,466| 12 | 668 | 35 |
|Mon Feb 15 | 955 | 52,904| 12 | 667 | 35 |
|Tue Feb 16 | 1,787 | 63,398| 12 | 664 | 35 |
+------------+-------+---------+------------------+-------------|-------------------+
|Weekly total|15,877 | 577,821| (avg 2,268 deaths/day, 82,546 cases / day) |
+------------+-------+---------+------------------+-------------|-------------------+
Record deaths: 4,491 on Jan 12
Record new cases: 307,607 on Jan 08
