10-20-2020, 06:49 PM
(This post was last modified: 10-20-2020, 06:51 PM by mordant.)
Coronavirus spreads. But don't panic! (topical thread)
Coronavirus spreads. But don't panic! (topical thread)
(10-20-2020, 01:36 PM)Cavebear Wrote:I don't know where you're getting WHO numbers from or if they are for the US or the world, but it's just a US population of 331,589,837 divided by 8,484,386 US cases = 1 in 39.08 persons. You're probably looking at something else.(10-20-2020, 01:27 PM)mordant Wrote:(10-20-2020, 12:07 AM)Minimalist Wrote: Worldometers reports that Fuckface's do-nothing strategy has now resulted in a quarter million dead. 225,174... aaaaand now we're into the 30s:
1 person in 39 has been infected
WHO says 1 in 10. That would be 780 million, not 200 million. Well, what's a few hundred million among friends?
331,589,837 divided by 225,698 deaths is one death per 1,469 persons.
331,598,837 divided by 2,739,944 active cases is one active case per 121 persons.
Allowing for active cases who aren't circulating (sick in bed, whether at home or in hospital -- or responsibly self-quarantining) then on an overall basis maybe 1 in 200 people you encounter are infectious. But you only have to catch it from that one. That's why crowds are a problem; if you're in a crowd of 2000 then there are 10 people somewhere in that crowd. If you're not social distanced and masked, then there's an excellent chance every one of the 1,990 other people are getting a nonzero viral load from those 10, and your chances of contracting go WAY up.