Coronavirus spreads. But don't panic! (topical thread)

[mordant]

I was surprised to see in the New York Times today that new Covid-19 cases in the US fell to about 40,000/ day and yesterday and it's been trending downward the last 2 weeks. Still high but going in the right direction at least.

I'm not too keen on the horse race-style announcing of raw numbers that seems to be the thing in the US: "Texas just surpassed Florida in cases!!" "California has now done 10 million tests!!" "Cases in Tennessee spike 7% yesterday!!"

I'm sure pithy headlines like these get lots of clicks online but they're good for nothing as far as actionable knowledge. Give me some analyses that I can sink my teeth into and feel like I've actually learned something useful instead. That type of info is hard to find, though.

And I believe the jury is still out on whether there will be a fall/ winter "spike". The received wisdom seems to that we're guaranteed to have one but how do we know for sure? The virus has only been in existence for about 8-9 months. I think it's more likely the US will steadily have a high number of cases until it runs its course (or the powers that be do something useful with all those raw numbers in the headlines).

-Teresa

You're in the north, right? (I think you are)

I believe the spikes we've been seeing here in the south are because southerners may be spending time indoors whereas northerners are outside more. When the weather switches to make it very cold up north, the northerners will start hanging out more indoors and the spread opportunities will increase. When schools ramp up, the kids will be transmitting that to one another regardless of the weather, and then that's going to come home to mom, dad, and the grandparents. Then it's going to go to the offices and factories.

As for the numbers being broadcast, I follow them every day. I see Floridians behaving in a certain way, and the numbers tend to reflect that behavior.

While I will spend more time indoors when the northern winter returns, I will not be spending it in public gathering places, but in my own home with my wife and stepson who are quarantining with me. My stepson is the sort who would never leave the house and be happy about it, if I didn't drag him along on morning dog walks or insist he walk to the drug store for his own meds. My wife and I are super careful to the point of sanitizing everything we touch after a visit to the store. So that we will be indoors more will, I trust, not have a significant impact on our likelihood of contracting the virus ... just on our mental health.

The only possible vector is my stepson's personal trainer, who, with the gyms closed, has been coming to our garage once a week to put him through his paces (while masked, and no touching, and with the garage door open). They had a meeting about reopening the gym he works at yesterday, so I'm eager to hear what they are planning to do there. Wrong answers may result in him not coming here any more.

Then there is our social life, such as it is, but that is 100% social-distanced with like-minded people. If we meet to eat we all bring our own food, and we are masked or distanced outdoors.

So ... with reasonable but strict precautions I don't think being outdoors less will impact our risks.

Now when you talk about people overall ... yes, some will drop their guard, or not have it to begin with, and that will tend to produce community spread.

Here in NY state they are running pilot programs to hunt the virus in sewerage, which is an early indicator of community spread. Hopefully that program will spread to at least the major treatment plants statewide, which will give us another metric to go by. Also, now anyone can get a Covid test at any time, sick or not, and turnaround times are reasonable. Counties allowed to reopen even partially were required to have contact tracing programs in place. With all these precautions I hope spread will be minimized in our state, but -- we are still reopening most schools. Just got word that Ithaca College changed its mind and went back to 100% virtual yesterday; they recognized they simply aren't ready to do in-person right. Cornell is still determined to proceed at the moment, despite clearly not being ready either.

So mixed and muddled situation as usual but I hope a combination of personal caution and living in a relatively (if belatedly) careful state, we will be spared the worst of the pandemic's effects.