(08-19-2020, 12:29 AM)Tres Leches Wrote: I was surprised to see in the New York Times today that new Covid-19 cases in the US fell to about 40,000/ day and yesterday and it's been trending downward the last 2 weeks. Still high but going in the right direction at least.
I'm not too keen on the horse race-style announcing of raw numbers that seems to be the thing in the US: "Texas just surpassed Florida in cases!!" "California has now done 10 million tests!!" "Cases in Tennessee spike 7% yesterday!!"
I'm sure pithy headlines like these get lots of clicks online but they're good for nothing as far as actionable knowledge. Give me some analyses that I can sink my teeth into and feel like I've actually learned something useful instead. That type of info is hard to find, though.
And I believe the jury is still out on whether there will be a fall/ winter "spike". The received wisdom seems to that we're guaranteed to have one but how do we know for sure? The virus has only been in existence for about 8-9 months. I think it's more likely the US will steadily have a high number of cases until it runs its course (or the powers that be do something useful with all those raw numbers in the headlines).
-Teresa
You're in the north, right? (I think you are)
I believe the spikes we've been seeing here in the south are because southerners may be spending time indoors whereas northerners are outside more. When the weather switches to make it very cold up north, the northerners will start hanging out more indoors and the spread opportunities will increase. When schools ramp up, the kids will be transmitting that to one another regardless of the weather, and then that's going to come home to mom, dad, and the grandparents. Then it's going to go to the offices and factories.
As for the numbers being broadcast, I follow them every day. I see Floridians behaving in a certain way, and the numbers tend to reflect that behavior.
