Coronavirus spreads. But don't panic! (topical thread)

[jerryg]

Trump is partially right on this one. The metric that is being used is 'confirmed cases'. You create 'confirmed cases' by testing.  What matters of course, are actual cases, which is becoming more clear as we test more.  But you could theoretically have a decrease in actual cases, and an increase in confirmed cases at the same time.  I'd guess that's what we had or close to it for the stretch with low deaths and skyrocketing cases.  

That being said, it seems likely there's been a spike in cases as of late (.  But the way people have used confirmed cases as a statistic has been either dishonest or naive.

We've been watching deaths, although that too isn't a completely accurate metric, as treatment is likely improving, it's a lagging metric, and we're not seeing the system failure like we had in NYC.  Also, there's the under and over-reporting of it.  But the methodology seems pretty stable for snapshot of what we're looking at.

But this switching back and forth between Cases and Confirmed Cases in a way that is based on suiting their narrative rather than informing the public is what we've gotten used to from the media, unfortunately.

I like to look at hospitalizations and deaths. It's a better measurement that way. But it leaves out all the people like me who would not get tested and die quietly at home. There are way more of us than one thinks.

Yeah, the raw numbers are always going to be flawed. But proportionately, you die quietly at home people shouldn't change as a share of the people dying.  So in terms of things getting better or worse, the shape of the graph should stay representative of what's happening.  

Hospitalizations is definitely a good one too. And maybe the most relevant one. When they start talking about full hospitals, it's time to bunker down. That means people who could be saved are about to start dying.