Coronavirus spreads. But don't panic! (topical thread)

[Alan V]

As testing continues to be more and more available, it's going to be tough to guess how much of the increase is spread, and how much is the increase in testing.

Deaths on the other hand, seem like they'd be a good indicator.  Although, I read somewhere that they don't always count deaths that occur outside a hospital, so even that could be artificially suppressed. Or in the UK's case, they included them for the first time yesterday, which you'd expect to create an artificial jump.

It's tricky business trying to draw correct conclusions from the data with all the holes in it.

Here's an interesting bit of information:

CNN

As of Tuesday, Iceland had tested more than 17,900 people for the virus -- nearly 5% of its population. And while its National University Hospital tests people who are high-risk or show symptoms, nearly half of Iceland's tests have been conducted by biopharma company deCODE Genetics, focusing on the the wider population.

Crucially, deCODE's "screening program accepts everybody who is not showing symptoms and not currently in quarantine," Iceland's Directorate of Health said in a statement, adding that Iceland-based company was doing it on the behalf of the Chief Epidemiologist and the health agency.
...
Some of the revelations have been stark. Although fewer than 1% of the tests came back positive for the virus, the company's founder Dr. Kári Stefánsson told CNN that around 50% of those who tested positive said they were asymptomatic, confirming multiple studies that show that asymptomatic, or mildly symptomatic, people have played an important role in spreading the virus.