I've been looking into the data again and seeing hopeful trends,
Italy has done exceptionally well. Growth rates there have dropped to ~5% per day. They may be approaching the peak of their curve. New cases are now only twice the number of recoveries. More sobering data from Italy shows the failure of sufficiently flattening the curve. On March 7th, only 25% of "resolved" cases were fatalities, whereas the rest were recoveries. A week later, with the medical system overwhelmed, 45% of cases were being "resolved" by the death of the patient, with a mere 55% recovering.
Canada is holding steady with a growth exponent of 0.16. Not wonderful but survivable. At that rate we'll have about 50,000 cases by Easter, which is going to be hard on our medical system but not a collapse.
The USA saw a sharp drop in the rate of spread over the weekend. That may be due to poor testing but I'm hopeful that it's the result of containment efforts in NY and NJ, which account for roughly half of the country's cases. Both states have seen sharp drops in the rate of spread in recent days. Unfortunately, you can expect the national rates to start rising again soon as other states that haven't taken the necessary precautions start shooting up. Yes, I'm looking at you Florida.
Italy has done exceptionally well. Growth rates there have dropped to ~5% per day. They may be approaching the peak of their curve. New cases are now only twice the number of recoveries. More sobering data from Italy shows the failure of sufficiently flattening the curve. On March 7th, only 25% of "resolved" cases were fatalities, whereas the rest were recoveries. A week later, with the medical system overwhelmed, 45% of cases were being "resolved" by the death of the patient, with a mere 55% recovering.
Canada is holding steady with a growth exponent of 0.16. Not wonderful but survivable. At that rate we'll have about 50,000 cases by Easter, which is going to be hard on our medical system but not a collapse.
The USA saw a sharp drop in the rate of spread over the weekend. That may be due to poor testing but I'm hopeful that it's the result of containment efforts in NY and NJ, which account for roughly half of the country's cases. Both states have seen sharp drops in the rate of spread in recent days. Unfortunately, you can expect the national rates to start rising again soon as other states that haven't taken the necessary precautions start shooting up. Yes, I'm looking at you Florida.
