03-27-2020, 04:01 PM
(This post was last modified: 03-27-2020, 04:11 PM by Deesse23.)
Coronavirus spreads. But don't panic! (topical thread)
Coronavirus spreads. But don't panic! (topical thread)
(03-27-2020, 03:44 PM)jerry mcmasters Wrote: Math is definitely not my thing, but doesn't there need to be a rapid doubling component for it to be "exponential"? I take it exponential here means each increment (within the same amount of time) is larger (but not necessarily twice as large) than the last?Exponetnial growth is defined as a growth by a certain FACTOR within the same time. Growth depends on the already existing stock. It therefore has a runaway effect.
Example: You put your money in the bank and get a 10% interest. Each day your money increases by 10%.
Linear growth is a growth by a certain FIXED AMOUNT within the same time.
Example: You put your money in the bank and get 10$ each day.
Bad news for the US:
It took 8 days form 100-1k cases (factor 10)
It took 8 days from 1k cases to 10k (factor 10)
It took 8 days from 10k cases to 100k (factor 10)
Meanwhile it took Italy twice as long to get from 10k to ca. 100k.
If nothing changes you will have 1mio cases by Sunday, 5th, and i am not even talking about the grim reaper opening up the US at easter.
R.I.P. Hannes
