(03-23-2020, 05:39 AM)Paleophyte Wrote: Some good news for Italy. Looking at the recent data the growth curve appears to be flattening. It's down ~30% since two weeks ago. The bad news is that the death toll lags behind infection rates and will continue to grow at the higher rate for some time and that's not factoring into account an overwhelmed medical system.
A warning for Canada: We are where Italy was at the start of March and on the same trajectory. Our number of cases is increasing at the same rate that Italy's was earlier. If the various measures that have been taken don't bring that rate down soon we will have ~10,000 cases by the end of the month.
For the USA your 5-day forecast is:
Monday: 45,000 cases
Tuesday: 61,000 cases
Wednesday: 84,000 cases
Thursday: 114,000 cases as you overtake Italy
Friday: 155,000 cases
Pray to any loving god that you believe in that I have mathed this wrong. If I haven't then there will be over half a million cases by month's end and the medical system will be crushed flat.
Matches my observations. Several european countries seem to have growth rates of 10-15% over the weekend, instead of 30%. Lets see. Crossing my fingers for all of us.
R.I.P. Hannes
