Coronavirus spreads. But don't panic! (topical thread)

[brewerb]

I think I'll base my level of panic on how the rates (infection/death) shake out with the Seattle outbreak.

[Aroura]

I think I'll base my level of panic on how the rates (infection/death) shake out with the Seattle outbreak.

Wait, is it actually loose in Seattle?  Or do you mean a future hypothetical one?

[brewerb]

I think I'll base my level of panic on how the rates (infection/death) shake out with the Seattle outbreak.

Wait, is it actually loose in Seattle?  Or do you mean a future hypothetical one?

Is Kirkland close enough? 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/co...story.html

https://www.kiro7.com/news/local/departm...CL75367PU/

[Aroura]

Well. I can't say I'm surprised. Now that we know the Health Department crew that took patients off the cruise ship into quarantine weren't tested, and some even took commercial flights themselves directly after, it could be spreading quietly all over the place.

[Chas]

As always, it all about HIM.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/...story.html

Inside Trump’s frantic attempts to minimize the coronavirus crisis

Trump’s playing down of the California patient at his news conference underscores the administration’s slapdash and often misleading attempts to contain not just the virus, but also potential political damage from the outbreak — which has tanked financial markets, slowed global commerce and killed some 3,000 people worldwide, including the first U.S. death, announced Saturday. 
Since Trump touched down from a two-day trip to India early Wednesday morning, the administration struggled to cope with the fallout from the crisis — shaking up and centralizing its coronavirus response team under the leadership of Vice President Pence, floating plans to stabilize the markets and publicly seeking to minimize the threat posed by the potential pandemic.
Interviews with nearly two dozen administration officials, former White House aides, public health experts and lawmakers — many speaking on the condition of anonymity to share candid assessments and details — portray a White House scrambling to gain control of a rudderless response defined by bureaucratic infighting, confusion and misinformation.
“It’s complete chaos,” a senior administration official said. “Everyone is just trying to get a handle on what the [expletive] is going on

Well, it's not like they could consult with actual medical professionals.

[GenesisNemesis]

Hoping Trump and/or Pence gets it. What, too harsh? Nah, I don't think so.

[Deesse23]

People are starting to panic and buy heaps of food in german supermarkets
If there was a stock market for peoples naivety and supidity, i would be fucking rich by now. Like my japanese colleage, who bought stocks of companies involved in providing remote work infrastructure. He made 30% so far he told me.

[Deesse23]

NO2 levels in Wuhan are sinking. The root cause is suspected to be Covid19, which led to closing of factories and less traffic.

[SYZ]

Here in Victoria in May last year (2019) there were 10,680 confirmed influenza cases reported,
and 26 people confirmed dead.  And last year in total, more than 300 people died of the virus.
in Australia.

In 2018 there were 58,847 confirmed influenza cases, and 125 people died.  In 2017 there were
250,000 confirmed influenza cases, and 1,163 people died.

—I'm intrigued as to why there was virtually no panic then, with those sorts of figures.  Is the current
state of "panic" being whipped up by a cynical media/corporate/government feeding frenzy?  Why no
sell-out of masks in those years, or supermarket shelves being stripped?  Influenza is a serious worldwide
killer.  Is it as bad as COVID-19 or simply more controllable with vaccines—as opposed to COVID-19
which as of now has no vaccines?  It also takes around 6 months to develop effective vaccines against
new strains of influenza—every season—so why are we not prepared to waith 6 months for a COVID-19
vaccine?

[Rainy_D]

Out of an Abundance of Caution:

https://www.businessinsider.com/nike-cor...ath-2020-3

Edit to add:
from Sept 2019 (south China morning post - alibaba group)
https://www.scmp.com/news/world/article/...-who-warns

Show ContentSpoiler:

Corona = crown (latin)

First usa death = King county washington state

Redmond is a city in King County, Washington, United States,

anyways just a bizarre set of circumstances.

[Phaedrus]

[brewerb]

Covid-19 dissemination during spring break madness?

[Gawdzilla Sama]

I think all 7,000,000,000 6,000,000,000 5,000,000,000 4,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 of us will get through this just fine.

[Alan V]

Here in Victoria in May last year (2019) there were 10,680 confirmed influenza cases reported,
and 26 people confirmed dead.  And last year in total, more than 300 people died of the virus.
in Australia.

In 2018 there were 58,847 confirmed influenza cases, and 125 people died.  In 2017 there were
250,000 confirmed influenza cases, and 1,163 people died.

—I'm intrigued as to why there was virtually no panic then, with those sorts of figures.  Is the current
state of "panic" being whipped up by a cynical media/corporate/government feeding frenzy?  Why no
sell-out of masks in those years, or supermarket shelves being stripped?  Influenza is a serious worldwide
killer.  Is it as bad as COVID-19 or simply more controllable with vaccines—as opposed to COVID-19
which as of now has no vaccines?  It also takes around 6 months to develop effective vaccines against
new strains of influenza—every season—so why are we not prepared to wait 6 months for a COVID-19
vaccine?

There are a couple of important reasons: COVID-19 kills proportionally more people than the flu, perhaps ten times more, and it spreads more easily.

But I assume that once COVID-19 has spread and subsided, people will calm down about it just as they did after the original flu epidemics.  

[Mark]

When it's my time to go, it's my time to go.

Just how much religious training have you had?  You may have left the church but it hasn't yet left you.  Think of your fatalism as one of its parting gifts.

[Phaedrus]

When it's my time to go, it's my time to go.

Just how much religious training have you had?  You may have left the church but it hasn't yet left you.  Think of your fatalism as one of its parting gifts.

I don't get it.

[Mark]

When it's my time to go, it's my time to go.

Just how much religious training have you had?  You may have left the church but it hasn't yet left you.  Think of your fatalism as one of its parting gifts.

I don't get it.  

The crazy religious people in my family share your sense that there is an appointed time for one to go.  One of my aunts extrapolates based on that principle that safety measures like seatbelts are pointless.  If it is your time, they won't save you.  If it isn't your time, you won't need it.  It isn't exactly 'in the bible' but it is a symptom of screwy, fundamentalist thinking.

[Phaedrus]

The crazy religious people in my family share your sense that there is an appointed time for one to go.  One of my aunts extrapolates based on that principle that safety measures like seatbelts are pointless.  If it is your time, they won't save you.  If it isn't your time, you won't need it.  It isn't exactly 'in the bible' but it is a symptom of screwy, fundamentalist thinking.

I don't believe there's an appointed time for me to go. Me stating if it's my time, it's my time is just me being fatalistically pessimistic and the ever-loving misanthrope.

[Mark]

The crazy religious people in my family share your sense that there is an appointed time for one to go.  One of my aunts extrapolates based on that principle that safety measures like seatbelts are pointless.  If it is your time, they won't save you.  If it isn't your time, you won't need it.  It isn't exactly 'in the bible' but it is a symptom of screwy, fundamentalist thinking.

I don't believe there's an appointed time for me to go. Me stating if it's my time, it's my time is just me being fatalistically pessimistic and the ever-loving misanthrope.

Good to hear it.  Given my family experience, I sometimes over react.

[Deesse23]

Several people have been diagnosed a mere 20mi from where i live and work. Fortunately all of them are showing only mild or no symptoms at all.
I am expecting my company to shut down temporarily soon or to send us to home office for some time. We will see.

[Phaedrus]

There are "unverified" accounts near where I work.

[Aegon]

I think I'll base my level of panic on how the rates (infection/death) shake out with the Seattle outbreak.

Considering you can have it and spread it for up to 14 days before symptoms appear, I have a hard time believing that every major metro area in the northwest won't have immense outbreaks now that we have so many novel cases there.

[mordant]

This would be funnier if it were 10, 20 years ago and more people knew what a CD even was.

[GenesisNemesis]

Here in Victoria in May last year (2019) there were 10,680 confirmed influenza cases reported,
and 26 people confirmed dead.  And last year in total, more than 300 people died of the virus.
in Australia.

In 2018 there were 58,847 confirmed influenza cases, and 125 people died.  In 2017 there were
250,000 confirmed influenza cases, and 1,163 people died.

—I'm intrigued as to why there was virtually no panic then, with those sorts of figures.  Is the current
state of "panic" being whipped up by a cynical media/corporate/government feeding frenzy?  Why no
sell-out of masks in those years, or supermarket shelves being stripped?  Influenza is a serious worldwide
killer.  Is it as bad as COVID-19 or simply more controllable with vaccines—as opposed to COVID-19
which as of now has no vaccines?  It also takes around 6 months to develop effective vaccines against
new strains of influenza—every season—so why are we not prepared to waith 6 months for a COVID-19
vaccine?

For one thing it''s a new disease and I'm pretty sure there's still not a lot we know about it yet, + no vaccine. So that creates more uncertainty, which means more panic.

[adey67]

Here in Victoria in May last year (2019) there were 10,680 confirmed influenza cases reported,
and 26 people confirmed dead.  And last year in total, more than 300 people died of the virus.
in Australia.

In 2018 there were 58,847 confirmed influenza cases, and 125 people died.  In 2017 there were
250,000 confirmed influenza cases, and 1,163 people died.

—I'm intrigued as to why there was virtually no panic then, with those sorts of figures.  Is the current
state of "panic" being whipped up by a cynical media/corporate/government feeding frenzy?  Why no
sell-out of masks in those years, or supermarket shelves being stripped?  Influenza is a serious worldwide
killer.  Is it as bad as COVID-19 or simply more controllable with vaccines—as opposed to COVID-19
which as of now has no vaccines?  It also takes around 6 months to develop effective vaccines against
new strains of influenza—every season—so why are we not prepared to wait 6 months for a COVID-19
vaccine?

There are a couple of important reasons: COVID-19 kills proportionally more people than the flu, perhaps ten times more, and it spreads more easily.

But I assume that once COVID-19 has spread and subsided, people will calm down about it just as they did after the original flu epidemics.  

I've seen people making comparisons to seasonal influenza (as opposed to pandemic flu which is a different beast altogether) all over the Internet and its a difficult one but I do think it's mistake to do so.

The truth is that we don't actually yet have sufficient data to say definitively what the baseline mortality rate of Covid19 actually is we can only currently base the mortality rate on the small amount of data we have, it could ultimately be higher than 1 or 2% or as low as seasonal flu at 0.1% no one will be able to tell us for sure anywhere up to a year down the line maybe more, the baseline mortality rate is further complicated by the fact that about 15% of those who get it become seriously ill and their outcome is dependent upon the quality of medical intervention they receive which further muddys the waters at this early stage. 
In short no one knows because no one CAN know but I feel comparisons with seasonal flu are unhelpful at this point and could lead to complacency, the last virus we were complacent about started off killing only small numbers of junkies Haitians and gays.......  until it didn't. We need to take this calmly and without hype and hysteria but also very seriously.