Coronavirus spreads. But don't panic! (topical thread)

[Phaedrus]

Trump calls coronavirus Democrats' new hoax

[Aroura]

Again, I think I'll trust officials over some random person's math.  
All cases must be confirmed with a test kit to be counted, and since it has been determined that around 80% are mild, and at least SOME infections are actually completely asymptomatic, determining the actual infection rate is almost impossible.  It has spread to far more people than SARS and MERS combined, though.

The death rate globally, out of confirmed cases only, is around 3.7%.  That's enormously high, assuming accurate. And there is a chance they are under reporting in some countries.
 There are reports out of Iran that they are artificially deflating their death toll as well, which is officially 34, but hospital and health workers report it to be closer to 210.

Remember that these places locked down entire cities, and dragged infected people out of their homes to be put in quarantine, not something we can do in the US, to help control the spread.  Italy even locked down an entire town.

A recent study from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) analyzing 72,314 coronavirus cases in mainland China found that while about 80 percent of cases are mild, the virus poses the greatest threat to elderly people with preexisting health issues. 
The research shows patients older than the age of 80 had a 14.9 percent chance of dying after being infected, while those in their 70s were found to have an 8 percent chance of death. Patients in their 50s were about three times more likely to die than patients in their 40s, at a rate of 1.3 percent. 
Patients ages 10 to 19 were as likely to die as patients in their 30s, at just 0.2 percent. The study did not report any deaths in children younger than 10, who represented less than 1 percent of patients. 
The study collected data from confirmed patients through Feb. 11 and is one of the largest such samples in a study of its kind. 
The risk of dying dramatically increased among patients in their 70s and 80s as many in this age group are more likely to have preexisting health conditions. 
Coronavirus patients with heart disease had a 10 percent mortality rate, while those with diabetes had around a 7 percent mortality rate. 
Men were also found to have a 2.8 percent fatality rate, versus 1.7 percent for women, according to the study. The overall fatality rate in China was 2.3 percent. 
Scientists say there are a number of factors that could be contributing to why men are more vulnerable in the current epidemic. Some are biological — for example, women have a stronger immune response to viral infections particularly of the respiratory tract — and some are rooted in lifestyle, The New York Times reports. In China, for instance, men smoke in much greater numbers than women.

So if you are over 50, you are at particular risk. 

Again, downplaying it isn't only stupid, it's as irresponsible as overhyping it.  We need accurate info, so we'll have to rely on local community reporting in the US, and health agencies around the world.

A new presumptive case has shown up in my home state of Oregon last night.  @Rainy_D   They are presumptive because the test kits were faulty.

Maybe we'll be lucky and it won't spread.  For now though it's still a wait and see game.

[Minimalist]

Trump calls coronavirus Democrats' new hoax

Somebody needs to tell Dickface that she's not getting better.

http://www.msnbc.com/weekends-with-alex-...9708741750

First U.S. coronavirus death confirmed in Washington state

He'll probably declare that she's a democrat who committed suicide to make him look bad.

[Rainy_D]

Again, I think I'll trust officials over some random person's math.

All cases must be confirmed with a test kit to be counted,
 death rate globally, out of confirmed cases only, is around 3.7%. 
That's enormously high, assuming accurate.

They are presumptive because the test kits were faulty.

Sorry to snip so much content but here we go.

You will trust officials except

China or Trump

All cases must be confirmed with test [BUT]


from a week ago:

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) last week said some of the testing kits sent to U.S. states and at least 30 countries produced "inconclusive" results due to a flawed component.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/21/only-thr...group.html

I have no issue with someone deciding for themselves to wear surgical masks, zip themselves into hazmat suit, and fear the worst.  Preppers, end-0-times, mormons, floridians, etc all have their contingency plans for collapse.  This appears to be your [endOfTheWorld] flavor of the week...

EDIT to Add:

The concern was enough that the House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, made a publicized stop this week in her home town’s Chinatown to implore people to “please come and visit and enjoy Chinatown”.

“We know that there is concern surrounding tourism, traveling all throughout the world, but we think it’s very safe to be in Chinatown and hope that others will come,” she said.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/f...y-district

I aint goin to chinatown.... I dun kare wot Pelosi officially sez.

[Minimalist]

I'm sure the residents of Chinatown will be totally fucking delighted if you stay away.  They need you like they need the clap.

[Aroura]

I don't much like Pelosi, but o don't see the issue with what she said. There's no link to Chinatown in SF and coronavirus.

As to the rest, equating a mistakes that was admitted and not covered up with a liar who only takes actions that he thinks will make him look better regardless of public health risks would be hilarious if it weren't both ignorant and dangerous.

[Rainy_D]

I don't much like Pelosi, but o don't see the issue with what she said. There's no link to Chinatown in SF and coronavirus.

As to the rest, equating a mistakes that was admitted and not covered up with a liar who only takes actions that he thinks will make him look better regardless of public health risks would be hilarious if it weren't both ignorant and dangerous.

I see.  If someone is of the right [your] political persuasion, irresponsible statements are ok. 

https://ktla.com/news/local-news/califor...ronavirus/

edit:
People were avoiding what they perceive as increased risk but Pelosi was trying to get tourist dollars back into her area. All about the money is OK because shes not Orange?

Just asking. My math is suspect because its not alarmist enough, but Pelosi bowling for dollars is ok?

[Thumpalumpacus]

I aint goin to chinatown....  I dun kare wot Pelosi officially sez.

You wadn't going to Chinatown anyway, dude. I bet Panda Express scares the fuck out of you.

[Aroura]

I don't much like Pelosi, but o don't see the issue with what she said. There's no link to Chinatown in SF and coronavirus.

As to the rest, equating a mistakes that was admitted and not covered up with a liar who only takes actions that he thinks will make him look better regardless of public health risks would be hilarious if it weren't both ignorant and dangerous.

I see.  If someone is of the right [your] political persuasion, irresponsible statements are ok. 

https://ktla.com/news/local-news/califor...ronavirus/

edit:
People were avoiding what they perceive as increased risk but Pelosi was trying to get tourist dollars back into her area.  All about the money is OK because shes not Orange?

Just asking.  My math is suspect because its not alarmist enough, but Pelosi bowling for dollars is ok?

No.  If someone LIES all the time, they aren't trustworthy.  Pretty simple.
As I said, I don't like Pelosi, and booooy are you wrong that she represents my political position. I think she's a corporate hack more interested in money than lives, and don't trust her any further than I can throw her.  That being said, There is no reason to discourage tourism specfically of Chinatown, that's just silly.

You know what they say about assuming?

In addition, pun intended, I don't like your math because it doesn't actually match the facts, not because it isn't alarmist enough.

I see why you have a -4. 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Avoiding Chinatowns might make sense if that was where the outbreak arose. It didn't. It arose seven thousand miles away.

But hey, they all look the same, amirite?

[Alan V]

Avoiding Chinatowns might make sense if that was where the outbreak arose. It didn't. It arose seven thousand miles away.

I'm worried about living in a densely populated area near and international airport.  

[Thumpalumpacus]

Avoiding Chinatowns might make sense if that was where the outbreak arose. It didn't. It arose seven thousand miles away.

I'm worried about living in a densely populated area near and international airport.  

I'm a little worried for living 90 miles from Lackland AFB, sure. But that wasn't really the thrust of my point. Tarring Chinatowns because this virus arose in China is like avoiding blacks because ebola typically breaks out in Africa first.

Strikes me as a fig-leaf for deeper inclinations.

[Fireball]

Avoiding Chinatowns might make sense if that was where the outbreak arose. It didn't. It arose seven thousand miles away.

I'm worried about living in a densely populated area near and international airport.  

I'm a little worried for living 90 miles from Lackland AFB, sure. But that wasn't really the thrust of my point. Tarring Chinatowns because this virus arose in China is like avoiding blacks because ebola typically breaks out in Africa first.

Strikes me as a fig-leaf for deeper inclinations.

I'd go out for Chi Foo tomorrow for dinner, if I hadn't already picked up a boneless leg of lamb to celebrate my eldest son's coming home!

[Thumpalumpacus]

I'm worried about living in a densely populated area near and international airport.  

I'm a little worried for living 90 miles from Lackland AFB, sure. But that wasn't really the thrust of my point. Tarring Chinatowns because this virus arose in China is like avoiding blacks because ebola typically breaks out in Africa first.

Strikes me as a fig-leaf for deeper inclinations.

I'd go out for Chi Foo tomorrow for dinner, if I hadn't already picked up a boneless leg of lamb to celebrate my eldest son's coming home!

Dude, COVID-19 has shown up in Ireland too. Aren't you taking an awful risk?!

[Rainy_D]

I don't much like Pelosi, but o don't see the issue with what she said. There's no link to Chinatown in SF and coronavirus.

As to the rest, equating a mistakes that was admitted and not covered up with a liar who only takes actions that he thinks will make him look better regardless of public health risks would be hilarious if it weren't both ignorant and dangerous.

I see.  If someone is of the right [your] political persuasion, irresponsible statements are ok. 

https://ktla.com/news/local-news/califor...ronavirus/

edit:
People were avoiding what they perceive as increased risk but Pelosi was trying to get tourist dollars back into her area.  All about the money is OK because shes not Orange?

Just asking.  My math is suspect because its not alarmist enough, but Pelosi bowling for dollars is ok?

  That being said, There is no reason to discourage tourism specfically of Chinatown, that's just silly.

You know what they say about assuming?

In addition, pun intended, I don't like your math because it doesn't actually match the facts, not because it isn't alarmist enough.

I see why you have a -4. 

No one specifically discouraged tourism in Chinatown that I am aware of.  People heard the news and made their own choices, business people contacted her office due to tourists staying away and she made her public statements based on that.  It was about MONEY not public safety.  The same general complaint leveled by some against Trump. 

As the link said:

California health officials said Friday that 7,600 people who returned to the state after visiting China during the outbreak of the new virus have been asked to quarantine themselves at home this month as health officials try to stop the spread of the virus.

San Fran airport being one of the places the feds are funneling returns from China thru.

It is not irrational for people to decide to reduce risk to self by avoiding tourist areas.  Like Disneyland for example.

My math matches the best facts I have found.  I posted links to my number sources.  You may not accept them but its not due to willful deception on my part.

[Dānu]

Research is still in its early stages, but some estimates suggest that each person with the new coronavirus could infect between two and four people without effective containment measures. That is enough to sustain and accelate an outbreak, if nothing is done to reduce it.

Here’s how that works. In the animation below, a group of five infected people could spread the virus to about 368 people over just five cycles of infection [at 2.6 infection rate].

Compare that with a less contagious virus, like the seasonal flu, which can be slowed by vaccines and immunity from past epidemics. People with the flu tend to infect 1.3 other individuals, on average. The difference may seem small, but the result is a striking contrast: Only about 45 people might be infected in the same scenario.

How Bad Will the Coronavirus Outbreak Get?

[Dānu]

Surgeon General Urges the Public to Stop Buying Face Masks

In another tweet, Dr. Adams said the best way to protect against the virus is to wash hands regularly, and for those who are feeling ill to stay home.

Health officials around the world have been imploring the public to stop buying masks if they are healthy or not caring for someone who is ill. Medical professionals need a large supply of the masks because they are in direct contact with infected patients and must change their masks repeatedly.

“There are severe strains on protective equipment around the world,” said Dr. Michael J. Ryan, executive director of the health emergency program at the World Health Organization, during a briefing on Friday. “Our primary concern is to ensure that our front line health workers are protected and that they have the equipment they need to do their jobs.”

Dr. Ryan said masks primarily prevent a person from giving the disease to someone else.

“There are limits to how a mask can protect you from being infected,” he said. “The most important thing everyone can do is wash your hands, keep your hands away from your face and observe very precise hygiene.”

[SYZ]

We've had our first COVID-19 death downunder;  a 78-year-old Chinese bloke who was a passenger on the
Diamond Princess  cruise ship. No members of the public had been put at risk by the man's diagnosis.

He was identified very early on, when he was on the flight back from the Diamond Princess, and was put in isolation,
then transferred to the Northern Territory, and again placed in isolation on arrival. He was being treated in isolation
ever since, with no risk to the general community or to hospital staff at Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital in Perth. He was
in a negative pressure room and then in intensive care and they were very confident that the protection equipment
they were using was more than adequate.

[Fireball]

I'm a little worried for living 90 miles from Lackland AFB, sure. But that wasn't really the thrust of my point. Tarring Chinatowns because this virus arose in China is like avoiding blacks because ebola typically breaks out in Africa first.

Strikes me as a fig-leaf for deeper inclinations.

I'd go out for Chi Foo tomorrow for dinner, if I hadn't already picked up a boneless leg of lamb to celebrate my eldest son's coming home!

Dude,  COVID-19 has shown up in Ireland too. Aren't you taking an awful risk?!

The lamb is from New Zealand. Notwithstanding that, it's going to spin on the rotisserie for a couple hours with garlic cloves stuck in it. I think I got it licked...or will

[Minimalist]

As always, it all about HIM.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/...story.html

Inside Trump’s frantic attempts to minimize the coronavirus crisis

Trump’s playing down of the California patient at his news conference underscores the administration’s slapdash and often misleading attempts to contain not just the virus, but also potential political damage from the outbreak — which has tanked financial markets, slowed global commerce and killed some 3,000 people worldwide, including the first U.S. death, announced Saturday. 
Since Trump touched down from a two-day trip to India early Wednesday morning, the administration struggled to cope with the fallout from the crisis — shaking up and centralizing its coronavirus response team under the leadership of Vice President Pence, floating plans to stabilize the markets and publicly seeking to minimize the threat posed by the potential pandemic.
Interviews with nearly two dozen administration officials, former White House aides, public health experts and lawmakers — many speaking on the condition of anonymity to share candid assessments and details — portray a White House scrambling to gain control of a rudderless response defined by bureaucratic infighting, confusion and misinformation.
“It’s complete chaos,” a senior administration official said. “Everyone is just trying to get a handle on what the [expletive] is going on

[jerryg]

I saw there was a guy that tested positive on a cruise ship, and didn't even have any symptoms.

I think that's a combination good thing and bad thing. Good in that most people probably aren't at any real risk. Bad, in that containing it seems impossible, and those at risk could be seriously fucked.

It seems like a very unique situation.

Oh yeah, the thing with symptomless people, is that must inflate the mortality rate a ton. If most people who get it are just getting a runny nose, then we're never going to find out about most people that get it.

[GenesisNemesis]

https://friendlyatheist.patheos.com/2020...ronavirus/

Here’s a Picture of Mike Pence’s Team Attempting to Pray Away Coronavirus

Elizabeth Johnston (a.k.a. the “Activist Mommy”) has spent the past day or so talking about her meeting — along with other anti-abortion zealots — with Vice President Mike Pence.

That’s disturbing enough, but it’s even more troubling that she posted this photo of Pence “praying with the Caronavirus Team.”

Religious fundamentalist idiots at it again.

[airportkid]

Here’s a Picture of Mike Pence’s Team Attempting to Pray Away Coronavirus

Hey, give 'em a little credit.  Given their competence in measures other than prayer, prayer stands the best chance of producing anything beneficial compared to anything else they'd undertake.

[Rainy_D]

NOTE:  NONE OF THESE LINKS RELY ON UNNAMED SOURCES (wapo fake news)!  

Renamed the disease.

China shared publicly the full RNA sequence of the virus – now known as SARS-CoV-2 rather than COVID-19, which refers to the disease itself – in the first half of January.

reprint of article:

https://www.sciencealert.com/who-says-a-...onths-away

Somewhere along the line I have heard there is no approved vaccine for SARS - or that effective Corona virus vaccines are extremely difficult to create.  Been trying to find verification (half-hearted) but not yet.

Someone posted several links regarding SARS - this link gives enough info for further searches if one is so inclined:


From aug 2007 Potential SARS treatment (type of corona virus)
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full....200701021

Blue ear disease trampled china back in mid 2000's.  People were assured this did not affect people.  Up until the china outbreak, blue ear disease did not seem to affect people. Lots of rumor intermingled with truths. Regions quarantined. Some illness spreading to people. Rumors of 65K people infected (unverified) and then china clamped down on information.


I personally thought Avian flu had made the jump via swine and Blue ear was a lie.  But it wasnt Avian flu.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1434506/

From 2013:

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/19/2/12-0470_article

Currently and ongoing for more than a year now, African Swine Fever has been killing chinas pigs.  There is no doubt huge efforts are underway to find some kind of cure/treatment, maybe in Wuhan disease research facilities.  There is also much talk of researchers disposing of research animals in the markets of Wuhan for a little extra cash.  

https://www.motherjones.com/food/2019/06...s-farmers/

It would not surprise me if this swine disease turns out to be connected to this current human outbreak of SARS-2. 

Did a bit of background searching for more info on the African pig fever.  The USA has been taking the threat very seriously for over a year now.  This African swine virus is wreaking havoc* in more places than china.

*now watch as pork prices change on speculation 

Show ContentSpoiler:

[Aegon]

But I personally dont trust china numbers.  

You shouldn't. I can say with absolute certainty that China is downplaying the severity within their borders. There are thousands of more cases than reported. They have a tight lid on it.

If you have better numbers regarding wuhan, post them.  I don't think you do have better numbers.  I think you may have simulation/model numbers based on worse case scenarios.

I can't, but on an unrelated note I work in DC and have many friends with higher security clearances than me. It makes no difference whether you believe me or not. I just think the public should be aware