Coronavirus spreads. But don't panic! (topical thread)

[Cavebear]

Title:  CDC Confirms Possible Instance of Community Spread of COVID-19 in U.S.

Possible /= confirmed

not rumor -->  At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown.

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/...pread.html

It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States. Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible [better words MORE LIKELY], however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.

^^^^ unfounded rumor totally beneath a professional approach to an ever-changing situation. ^^^^

A Giant WTF are they thinking!

This is how The Bad Times start. One never knows in advance. It is always a surprise. History never tells you what is coming.

[Minimalist]

In case anyone was wondering.....

https://www.livescience.com/face-mask-ne...virus.html

Can wearing a face mask protect you from the new coronavirus?

By Laura Geggel - Associate Editor a month ago

No, a regular surgical mask will not help you steer clear of the virus.

Doubtlessly more effective than praying but then, what isn't?

[Cavebear]

In case anyone was wondering.....

https://www.livescience.com/face-mask-ne...virus.html

Can wearing a face mask protect you from the new coronavirus?

By Laura Geggel - Associate Editor a month ago

No, a regular surgical mask will not help you steer clear of the virus.

Doubtlessly more effective than praying but then, what isn't?

Bad Answer!  An N95 NOISH-approved mask is effective against viruses if fitted properly. "Regular surgical mask" is an evasion. A "regular surgical mask" is not N95.

[jerryg]

I'm guessing the big threat, is that it becomes so widespread that there aren't enough hospital beds and stuff to prevent normally preventable deaths.

If a person gets pneumonia, it's not a big deal. If a million people get pneumonia, then shit's going to get dicey.

[Bucky Ball]

So then, I guess we're all gonna die.

[jerryg]

The problem, of course, is we only get these worst case scenarios. It sounds like a healthy young person can get this, and just have the sniffles?

[mordant]

Wrong topic

[Cavebear]

I'm guessing the big threat, is that it becomes so widespread that there aren't enough hospital beds and stuff to prevent normally preventable deaths.  

If a person gets pneumonia, it's not a big deal.  If a million people get pneumonia, then shit's going to get dicey.

Downline consequences are sometimes worse than the initial problem.

[Cavebear]

So then, I guess we're all gonna die.

I'm going to die. You are going to die. We are all going to die someday. But we don't know when.

[Cavebear]

The problem, of course, is we only get these worst case scenarios.  It sounds like a healthy young person can get this, and just have the sniffles?

So far, most people don't even know they have the COVID-19.  Which is what makes tracking it so difficult.

On the other hand, I probably shouldn't care.  I'm one of those people where viruses go to die.  I haven't had a virus illness for 55 years and that's after being enclosed in a carpool where the young mothers were constantly sick (and sickened each other, BTW) so they could save their sick days for maternity leave.  Even when a virus got my brother and me at age 12 and 10, he was in bed for a week and I was up and about on 2 days.  In college in 1968, everyone was throwing up from Hong Kong Flu.  So was I. Only (it turned out) I had appendicitus!

I bet I could walk through a sickroom of Coronovirus victims and not catch a mild fever.  Not that I plan to take that chance...

[Minimalist]

I'm guessing the big threat, is that it becomes so widespread that there aren't enough hospital beds and stuff to prevent normally preventable deaths.  

If a person gets pneumonia, it's not a big deal.  If a million people get pneumonia, then shit's going to get dicey.

Yes.  Read up on The Spanish Flu.

Think about this:  Nearly 16 million Americans have been diagnosed with COPD and who knows how many undiagnosed cases there are.

25 million have asthma.

9 million have chronic bronchitis.

3 million have emphysema

and so on.  There is a whole list of chronic lung conditions.

That's 50+ million people who are at risk for complications from any kind of flu.  Think what even 1 percent of that could do to our medical system especially in rural areas where hospitals are closing with regularity.

[Cavebear]

I'm guessing the big threat, is that it becomes so widespread that there aren't enough hospital beds and stuff to prevent normally preventable deaths.  

If a person gets pneumonia, it's not a big deal.  If a million people get pneumonia, then shit's going to get dicey.

Yes.  Read up on The Spanish Flu.

Think about this:  Nearly 16 million Americans have been diagnosed with COPD and who knows how many undiagnosed cases there are.

25 million have asthma.

9 million have chronic bronchitis.

3 million have emphysema

and so on.  There is a whole list of chronic lung conditions.

That's 50+ million people who are at risk for complications from any kind of flu.  Think what even 1 percent of that could do to our medical system especially in rural areas where hospitals are closing with regularity.

COVID-19 is either going to be "the next Spanish Flu" or it won't. If it is, a lot of us are screwed. If not, a few deads and humanity won't notice the difference in a generation. Life is sometimes awful and we've been lucky for 2 or 3 generations.

[Tres Leches]

Keeping the government in check and questioning the government are cornerstones of a free society. If you want to breathe a sigh of relief and say "it's all fine, folks" based on statements made by partisan government representatives who have a stake in making sure people think everything is copacetic - well, that's on you, man.

Quite the stretch there matey!

Understanding why the WH decided to reign in rumors vs beeleefs everything is just fine cuz Trump sez so, is not at all what I communicated.  

Once again, I showed my math and that fact was ignored, the partisan population choosing to remain on OMB as the answer to everything. 

Alt+42

OMG that's MS. Leches. Sheesh! 

-Teresa

[Cavebear]

Keeping the government in check and questioning the government are cornerstones of a free society. If you want to breathe a sigh of relief and say "it's all fine, folks" based on statements made by partisan government representatives who have a stake in making sure people think everything is copacetic - well, that's on you, man.

Quite the stretch there matey!

Understanding why the WH decided to reign in rumors vs beeleefs everything is just fine cuz Trump sez so, is not at all what I communicated.  

Once again, I showed my math and that fact was ignored, the partisan population choosing to remain on OMB as the answer to everything. 

Alt+42

OMG that's MS. Leches. Sheesh! 

-Teresa

Only content matters...

[Bucky Ball]

The problem, of course, is we only get these worst case scenarios.  It sounds like a healthy young person can get this, and just have the sniffles?

That is possible.
They don't have good numbers yet on people who have it and access the best medical care in developed countries.

[Thumpalumpacus]

Quick Search:

The National Institutes of Health and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention aren’t suffering from budget cuts that never took effect.

https://apnews.com/d36d6c4de29f4d04beda3db00cb46104

So I guess this explains why Trump put Pence up to make sure information getting out there is accurate.

I'd like to see proof that the NIH and CDC didn't get their budgets cut.

The NIH got a 6% increase for FY 2020, but this is not due to Trump, whose 2021 budget once again tries to cut NIH funding as it has the last few years.

The same is true of CDC budgets, where Trump has proposed cuts but Congress has rejected them.

Rainy is right that the budgets haven't been cut. He is wrong to give Trump credit for that, as Trump's proposed budgets show.

[Cavebear]

The problem, of course, is we only get these worst case scenarios.  It sounds like a healthy young person can get this, and just have the sniffles?

That is possible.
They don't have good numbers yet on people who have it and access the best medical care in developed countries.

And many people have it and don't get even moderately sick. They are uncounted so far.

[Bucky Ball]

Quick Search:

The National Institutes of Health and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention aren’t suffering from budget cuts that never took effect.

https://apnews.com/d36d6c4de29f4d04beda3db00cb46104

So I guess this explains why Trump put Pence up to make sure information getting out there is accurate.

I'd like to see proof that the NIH and CDC didn't get their budgets cut.

The cuts are in the proposed budgets. Trump's plan was to further cut the CDC.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news...1028946602
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/...ealth-cuts
Trump has been at war with science for his entire presidency.

[Dānu]

In the wee hours of the morning, while channel surfing, there was a FOX commentator expressing that COVID-19 may be a bioweapon that escaped from a Chinese lab.

I see it's all over the internet.

A remarkably inefficient bioweapon designed to reduce an army's stock of face-masks? Makes sense to me.  

Yep, a 2-3% kill ratio mostly limited the elderly with comorbidities. It's the Dr. Fu Manchu-iest.

[Aegon]

But I personally dont trust china numbers.  

You shouldn't. I can say with absolute certainty that China is downplaying the severity within their borders. There are thousands of more cases than reported. They have a tight lid on it.

[Dancefortwo]

In case anyone was wondering.....

https://www.livescience.com/face-mask-ne...virus.html

Can wearing a face mask protect you from the new coronavirus?

By Laura Geggel - Associate Editor a month ago

No, a regular surgical mask will not help you steer clear of the virus.

Doubtlessly more effective than praying but then, what isn't?

I don't understand people who wear masks but then go around touching stuff with their bare hands, like doornobs, ATM machines, money and all sorts of things.  Seems like touching stuff and then touching their face even with a mask on can transmit germs, but I'm not a scientist so what do I know.

[SYZ]

Australian health authorities have advised people not to wear surgical-type masks as they're not
effective against COVID-19, and would give people false confidence.  Their advice is to thoroughly
wash hands after touching any stuff in public, coughing/sneezing into tissues and disposing of them,
after toileting, or before eating etc.  Our local supermarket has a dispenser of medicated hand-wipes
in a dispenser at the front of the store to clean shopping trolley handles.  I open/close public toilet
doors with my knee or elbow.

[Chas]

There's nothing you can say
   That could get me up today
   Nothing you have every said
   That can drive me from this bed

   You can call me lazy, crazy
   Call me stupid I don't care
   I ain't getting up
   It's dangerous out there.

[Alan V]

The New York Times

The White House moved on Thursday to tighten control of coronavirus messaging by government health officials and scientists, directing them to coordinate all statements and public appearances with the office of Vice President Mike Pence, according to several officials familiar with the new approach.

[Rainy_D]

But I personally dont trust china numbers.  

You shouldn't. I can say with absolute certainty that China is downplaying the severity within their borders. There are thousands of more cases than reported. They have a tight lid on it.

If you have better numbers regarding wuhan, post them.  I don't think you do have better numbers.  I think you may have simulation/model numbers based on worse case scenarios.

Wuhan is a city of 11 million.
Hubei province has 58million people.

One can under-report by thousands while marginally affecting percentages.

80K infection out of 11mil = .7%
160K infection out of 11mil = 1.5% = double
320K infection out of 11mil = 2.9% = quadruple

to achieve the numbers in wuhan === to the cruise ship (preliminary) infection rate:

2,090,000

2 million 90 thousand inhabitants of the city of Wuhan would need to be infected (not dead) from the virus.

Which is why I posted about the cruise ship quarantine as a more verifiable answer to the questions regarding the spread, noting that this example did not separate sick from asymptomatic during the quarantine.  That alone likely increased infection rates; which appeared to be 19% on the ship.

With people locked in together, the death rate of the infected came to .5% with only 2 of the 4 as verified with the virus, one death from pneumonia, and one unknown (so far).

Side note:

Speculative tweet -

https://twitter.com/RealJamesWoods/statu...9961001984