Climate Change

[Dom]

Well, Delta, let me suggest you stick to other threads where you can make contributions. You have a theory and I even heard it before some place. It doesn't jive with basic physics. So, if you want to continue with this theory, I suggest you start your own thread instead of disrupting a discussion that is based on actual laws of physics. Theories are always interesting, so do feel free to start a new thread on this. This is the wrong place for it.

[Aliza]

Thread temporarily closed for maintenance.

[Aliza]

After numerous comments about maintaining a science forum for those who want to discuss scientific data that falls in line with the majority consensus of the scientific community, the mod team has decided to split off the most recent portion of Deltabravo's climate change posts to a separate thread. If you are interested in following that conversation, please do so in the new thread.

[Deesse23]

After numerous comments about maintaining a science forum for those who want to discuss scientific data that falls in line with the majority consensus of the scientific community, the mod team has decided to split off the most recent portion of Deltabravo's climate change posts to a separate thread. If you are interested in following that conversation, please do so in the new thread.

Cant see thread/thread does not exist (yet)?

[SYZ]

Um... error for me too. "The specified thread does not exist."

[Aliza]

Can you check now?

[Deesse23]

Works.

[Alan V]

"Antarctic sea ice extent is currently below the long-term average of all decades prior since 1979. Previously, Antarctic sea ice extent had been above that long-term average due to long-term, large-scale wind circulation patterns that drove sea ice away from Antarctica, making room for more sea ice to form nearer to the continent. Climate models, or computer simulations that incorporate all the factors that affect Earth’s climate, predicted this behavior. These long-term wind patterns reversed several years ago, resulting in a significant sea ice decline surrounding Antarctica."

https://climate.nasa.gov/blog/2861/arcti...AL6mWGCSIg

[Alan V]

"Puerto Rico Governor Ricardo Rosselló signed into law a new climate change initiative that calls for the island to reduce its carbon emissions 50 percent in the next five years and transition to 100 percent renewable energy by 2050. The law also aims to cut the amount of waste entering landfills by 60 percent by 2030, and calls for planting 500,000 trees within five years."

https://e360.yale.edu/digest/puerto-rico...ArOjJEMt1o

[Alan V]

"While some were quick to point to climate change as a cause of the tornado outbreak, current science isn't definitive about how much climate change influences tornadoes. On Monday, Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Bernie Sanders posted a warning about climate change and tornadoes on Facebook. 'The science is clear, climate change is making extreme weather events, including tornadoes, worse,' he wrote. Sanders is correct to say climate change makes extreme weather worse, though how much that applies to tornadoes is unclear. But climate change seems to be shifting the concentration and range of tornadoes, pushing them into more vulnerable areas. In addition, evidence suggests there will be a more favorable environment for severe weather — and probably tornadoes — in a warmer future."

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/alabama-tor...t-we-know/

[Alan V]

The following is quoted from this linked article: https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other...GPEL3UbS_s

* No climate policies: projected future emissions if no climate policies were implemented; this would result in an estimated 4.1-4.8°C warming by 2100 (relative to pre-industrial temperatures)

* Current climate policies: projected warming of 3.1-3.7°C by 2100 based on current implemented climate policies

* National pledges: if all countries achieve their current targets/pledges set within the Paris climate agreement, it's estimated average warming by 2100 will be 2.6-3.2°C. This will go well beyond the overall target of the Paris Agreement to keep warming "well below 2°C".

* 2°C consistent: there are a range of emissions pathways that would be compatible with limiting average warming to 2°C by 2100. This would require a significant increase in ambition of the current pledges within the Paris Agreement.

* 1.5°C consistent: there are a range of emissions pathways that would be compatible with limiting average warming to 1.5°C by 2100. However, all would require a very urgent and rapid reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

Um... error for me too.  "The specified thread does not exist."

It r existenze now.

[Alan V]

"The scientific community has long warned that anthropogenic climate change exacerbates extreme weather events, including tropical cyclones, heat waves, droughts and heavy rainfall. But the influence of human activity on tornadoes remains less clear. That’s in part due to a limited amount of historical data. Unlike temperature and hurricane records, which date back more than a century, reliable tornado records go back only a few decades. Twisters are also short-lived, making it difficult to study individual events and detect trends. Yet, even with these shortfalls, there is evidence that our changing climate may be leaving a mark, causing clusters of tornadoes and a shift in range. 'While there is some debate within the scientific community about the details of how climate change will impact tornadoes, there is increasing evidence that a warming atmosphere ― with more moisture and turbulent energy ― favors increasingly large outbreaks of tornadoes, like the outbreak we’ve witnessed over the past few days,' Michael Mann, a climate scientist at Pennsylvania State University, said by email."

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/tornadoes...lBsdJ2J3i8

[Alan V]

"As Democrats are vying for the 2020 nomination, many of them are talking about environmental issues in a way that conflates specific storms and extreme weather events with the broader impacts of climate change. While research has found the central part of the U.S. could see more intense heat and rain events as a result of changes to the climate, many scientists are reluctant to make immediate connections between the broader trend and specific extreme weather events. But some Democrats have made the connection between predictions of more severe weather events and the recent flooding and tornadoes in the Midwest, especially as they campaign in crucial primary states like Iowa."

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/democrat...d=63397538

[Gawdzilla Sama]

"many scientists" ≥ 1

[Alan V]

"many scientists" ≥ 1

As a rule, scientists will not commit themselves to judging the causes of specific weather events until they have done the math, and even then it is in terms of percentages and likelyhoods. 

In the case of tornadoes, for instance, they only have data from the 1950s onwards, and incomplete data at that.  They will therefore not yet say that climate change is causing more tornadoes, only that it is a possibility they are still studying.  The attribution science is better in other areas, like for droughts, rainfall patterns, hurricanes, and temperatures.  Scientists have much better data for those.

However, that doesn't prevent politicians from saying the recent tornadoes were caused by climate change.

[Phaedrus]

[Alan V]

"Almost a quarter of all the glaciers in West Antarctica have been pronounced 'unstable'. This means, in the simplest terms, that they are losing ice to the ocean faster than they can gain it from falling snow. In the last 25 years most of the largest flows have accelerated the loss of ice fivefold. And in places some glaciers, including those known as Pine Island and Thwaites, have 'thinned' by 122 metres. That means that the thickness of the ice between the surface and the bedrock over which glaciers flow has fallen by almost the height of the Great Pyramid of Cheops in Egypt, and far more than the Statue of Liberty in New York or the tower of Big Ben in London. The conclusions are based on climate simulation matched against 800 million measurements of the Antarctic ice sheet recorded by the altimeters aboard four orbiting satellites put up by the European Space Agency between 1992 and 2017. The conclusion is published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters."

https://climatenewsnetwork.net/unstable-...pwkYLO-RKI

[Alan V]

Moved.

[Alan V]

"Of top 10 global carbon emitters, not a single one is hitting its climate goals as outlined under the Paris Agreement, per data from the Climate Action Tracker. Why it matters: Even if every country that's adopted the Paris Agreement were to meet their pledges, it would not avert the worst effects of climate change. Driving the news: June 1 marks the 2-year anniversary of President Trump's announcement that the U.S. would withdraw from the deal. Per the Climate Action Tracker, the U.S., the second-largest world emitter of greenhouse gasses (but top historical emitter), falls under 'critically insufficient,' the worst category, in meeting its Paris pledge.

...

Where countries rank: The top 10 emitters are bolded.

* 1.5ºC Paris Agreement compatible: Morocco, The Gambia

* 2ºC compatible: Bhutan, Costa Rica, Ethiopia, India, Philippines

* Insufficient: Australia, Brazil, EU, Kazakhstan, Mexico, New Zealand, Norway, Peru, Switzerland

* Highly insufficient: Argentina, Canada, Chile, China, Indonesia, Japan, Singapore, South Africa, South Korea, UAE

* Critically insufficient: Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, United States, Ukraine"

https://www.axios.com/paris-agreement-co...6i_IeBD16k

[Alan V]

"Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden is pitching a $5 trillion-plus climate proposal that he says would lead the U.S. to net zero emission of carbon pollution by 2050. The former vice president calls for $1.7 trillion in federal spending over 10 years, with the rest of the investments coming from the private sector. Biden proposes covering the taxpayer costs by repealing the corporate tax cuts that President Donald Trump signed in 2017, while eliminating existing subsidies to the fossil fuel industry. Biden's plan — a mix of tax incentives, federal spending, new regulation and more aggressive foreign policy on climate issues —comes as he pushes back on rivals' assertions that his environmental agenda isn't bold enough."

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStor...0-63470992

[Alan V]

"215 of the world's largest companies predict they stand to lose $970 billion to climate-change-related disruptions over the next seven years. Risks include paying more for insurance, writing off facilities in threatened locations and customers shifting to more environmentally friendly companies. The same companies say they could make $2 trillion from adapting to climate change."

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/climate-cha...llion-cdp/

[Alan V]

"In the past half-century, summer temperatures have risen 2.0°F on average in the contiguous U.S. Among the 244 cities analyzed, nearly 95% have recorded an increase in average summer temperatures since 1970. The eight largest increases have occurred in Texas and the West, led by Boise, Idaho (5.3°F); Las Vegas, Nevada (5.3°F); and McAllen, Texas (5.1°F)."

https://www.climatecentral.org/gallery/g...4eONdXWUZE

[Alan V]

"Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg is plunging $500 million into an effort to close all of the nation's remaining coal plants by 2030 and put the United States on track toward a 100% clean energy economy. The billionaire Bloomberg's investment in the Beyond Carbon initiative marks the largest ever philanthropic effort to combat climate change, according to the mayor's foundation. The organization will bypass the federal government and instead seek to pass climate and clean energy policies, as well as back political candidates, at the state and local level. 'We're in a race against time with climate change, and yet there is virtually no hope of bold federal action on this issue for at least another two years. Mother Nature is not waiting on our political calendar, and neither can we,' Bloomberg said."

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/michael-blo...s-by-2030/

[Alan V]

From The Washington Post:

"White House officials barred a State Department intelligence agency from submitting written testimony this week to the House Intelligence Committee warning that human-caused climate change could be 'possibly catastrophic' after State officials refused to excise the document’s references to the scientific consensus on climate change."

https://www.newsandguts.com/wapo-wh-bloc...FsDSLvAJXo