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+--- Thread: Meanwhile in Germany (/showthread.php?tid=3954)
Meanwhile in Germany - Deesse23 - 09-01-2019
Bad news: Everybody loses, only AfD gains, a lot
Good news: Conservatives in Saxony and Social Democrats in Brandenburg will stay strongest factions, and not the AfD
Mixed bag: Due to right wing surge, current coalitions wont have 50%, so new/extended coalitions will have to be formed
Noteworthy numbers:
Saxony: Conservatives top out at 33%. Even the socialists (who are strong in eastern Germany) lose 8%. AfD tops out at 28%
Brandenburg: Similar situation. Social democrats top out at 26,5%. Socialists lose 8% again. AfD gets 24,5%
I was quite surprised the socialists lost big time in both (post 1989) of their strongholds.
Brandenburg had a red/red coalition between social democrats and socialits which wont be viable anymore now .
Saxony had a conservative/social democrat coalition which will have to get expanded to green or socialists, or become a minority government. Brandenburg will need a 3 party coalition as well if AfD is not supposed to be included. So far everyone has declined to form a coalition with AfD. Tricky situation.
tl;dr:
Right wing has 25%-30% now, but will we be able to keep them out of coalitions?
Note: "only" 6,5/80mio Germans have voted (25% right wing) today.
RE: elections in Brandenburg and Saxony - Minimalist - 09-01-2019
Quote:Note: "only" 6,5/80mio Germans have voted (25% right wing) today.
Some people never learn from history.
![[Image: in-twelve-years-from-now-you-will-not-re...280971.png]](https://pics.me.me/in-twelve-years-from-now-you-will-not-recognize-berlin-22280971.png)
RE: elections in Brandenburg and Saxony - Thumpalumpacus - 09-01-2019
The march of the Right across the world is very disturbing. I try to retain hope, but it's very hard to do that when you consider America, UK, Eastern and Central Europe, India, Brazil, and other nations that have experienced a lurch to the right.
RE: elections in Brandenburg and Saxony - abaris - 09-01-2019
The problem for the winners is to form a coalition. If they want to keep the extreme right out of government, they need 3 parties, as I see it. And the parties in question aren't natural allies.
RE: elections in Brandenburg and Saxony - epronovost - 09-01-2019
(09-01-2019, 05:40 PM)Thumpalumpacus Wrote: The march of the Right across the world is very disturbing. I try to retain hope, but it's very hard to do that when you consider America, UK, Eastern and Central Europe, India, Brazil, and other nations that have experienced a lurch to the right.
In late October this year, Canada will just have finished its federal election and its probable that the Conservative Party will return to power. That wouldn't bode well for our climate change policies. You can then add us to the list.
By the way how far-Right is the AfD?
RE: elections in Brandenburg and Saxony - abaris - 09-01-2019
(09-01-2019, 06:57 PM)epronovost Wrote: By the way how far-Right is the AfD?
Very. Nationalists with a strong xeno/islamophobic touch. Some of ther proponents even venture into Nazi-territory or have their political roots in neo nazism. Also an outspoken climate change denier at the helm of the party. Another one saw fit to call Hitler's reign a "chickenshit" in Germany's long history.
RE: elections in Brandenburg and Saxony - epronovost - 09-01-2019
(09-01-2019, 07:01 PM)abaris Wrote:(09-01-2019, 06:57 PM)epronovost Wrote: By the way how far-Right is the AfD?
Very. Nationalists with a strong xeno/islamophobic touch. Some of ther proponents even venture into Nazi-territory or have their political roots in neo nazism. Also an outspoken climate change denier at the helm of the party.
So fearful cretins who are desperately affraid anything changes from the status quo of the late 90's no matter who they hurt in the process.
RE: elections in Brandenburg and Saxony - abaris - 09-01-2019
(09-01-2019, 07:05 PM)epronovost Wrote: So fearful cretins who are desperately affraid anything changes from the status quo of the late 90's no matter who they hurt in the process.
The late 90ies? If you want to be friendly, the post card image of the 50ies would be more their style. Not even the real decade.
RE: elections in Brandenburg and Saxony - epronovost - 09-01-2019
(09-01-2019, 07:07 PM)abaris Wrote:(09-01-2019, 07:05 PM)epronovost Wrote: So fearful cretins who are desperately affraid anything changes from the status quo of the late 90's no matter who they hurt in the process.
The late 90ies? If you want to be friendly, the post card image of the 50ies would be more their style. Not even the real decade.
So they are just pissed that their sisters are more successful then them as well as that ethnic guy from the office who'se not even born in Germany... How quaint.
RE: elections in Brandenburg and Saxony - Deesse23 - 09-01-2019
(09-01-2019, 06:57 PM)epronovost Wrote: By the way how far-Right is the AfD?Thats not so simple so please let me elaborate:
tldr;
They are xenophobic, islamophobic, nationalists, according to the motto "Germany/Germans first". They are not (yet) expansionist or revanchist. They are also "völkisch", at least to a great extend, and thats worrisome, because Völkisch is what the NSDAP was. Yet, Völkisch is a not properly defined term and problematic in many ways (like "faith").
They include a right wing, led by Björn Höcke who clearly is a neo fascist (he says holocaust memorials are a "disgrace" to Germany, amongst other clearly fascist talking points).
Quote:In a 2014 email to party colleagues, Höcke advocated the abolition of sections 86 and 130 of the German Criminal Code. Section 86 prohibits the spread of propaganda by unconstitutional organizations. Section 130 criminalizes "incitement of hatred towards other groups of the population" (Volksverhetzung).Go figure
In the recent months efforts were made (by the more moderate wing) to exclude him and his followers, making AfD much more appealing to other parties to form a coalition with. Yet, it turend out that the neo fascist "Höcke faction" seems to make out about half of the entire AfD, so he wasnt expelled.
This considerably strenghened the position of the neo-fascist wing of Höcke.Its also noteworthy, that seemingly, much like the NSDAP they allegedly have nothing to do with, the AfD is ridden with internal power struggles. It was originally founded by a professor in 2013 as a kinda libertarian party. He was then politically asassinated by his successor Frauke Petry and her much more right wing leaning followers in 2015. Petry in return was expelled by the current leaders (including her companion from the 2015 coup
) in 2017 and convicted of perjury, bringing AfD even more to the right.(current) political AfD profile:
- Pro NATO
- Anti EU
- Denies human made climate change
- "conservative" family values. Is against equal rights for LGBTQ etc. Antifeministic. Its noteworthy that one of the leaders of the AfD is an open lesbian (but Adolf didnt look like a Aryan too)
- No real plan for social and work policies other than being in favour of minimum salary and supporting the poor (hey, its much more important to persecute muslims or gays, eh?).
- advocates banning of wearing Burqua etc. in public
- advocates banning of minarets or the Adhan, muslim call to prayer by the Muezzin (basically is against freedom of religion)
RE: elections in Brandenburg and Saxony - Thumpalumpacus - 09-01-2019
(09-01-2019, 06:57 PM)epronovost Wrote:(09-01-2019, 05:40 PM)Thumpalumpacus Wrote: The march of the Right across the world is very disturbing. I try to retain hope, but it's very hard to do that when you consider America, UK, Eastern and Central Europe, India, Brazil, and other nations that have experienced a lurch to the right.
In late October this year, Canada will just have finished its federal election and its probable that the Conservative Party will return to power. That wouldn't bode well for our climate change policies. You can then add us to the list.
By the way how far-Right is the AfD?
That one would really hurt, because Canada has always seemed so sensible to me, as a nation.
I neglected to mention Turkey and Erdogan as well, which is one of the more dangerous swings (aside from America) going, right now -- because I think he'll be committed to aiding the entrenching of Russian and Iranian power in Syria to keep the Kurds permanently busy, if not destroyed.
My understanding of the AfD is that it's pretty far-right under a veneer of civility. I haven't caught up on the thread so I haven't seen the opinions of Abaris and Dessee, which obviously carry more weight than mine on this subject. Back to reading.
RE: elections in Brandenburg and Saxony - abaris - 09-01-2019
(09-01-2019, 09:24 PM)Thumpalumpacus Wrote: My understanding of the AfD is that it's pretty far-right under a veneer of civility.
That very much depends. Some exponents are pretty good at pretending to be civil, others don't even try. Truth is, they're all in the same boat of instrumentalising fear, prejudice, resentments and hatred for their political gain. In German there's the term "Wutbürger", which roughly translates into outraged citizen. Apart from the die hard borderline nazis, this is the electorate the AfD and brethren in spirit adress. They pretend to be anti establishment and to listen when all they are doing is inciting fear and hatred.
RE: elections in Brandenburg and Saxony - Thumpalumpacus - 09-01-2019
I appreciate the clarification, @abaris.
RE: elections in Brandenburg and Saxony - Deesse23 - 09-02-2019
(09-01-2019, 10:35 PM)abaris Wrote:(09-01-2019, 09:24 PM)Thumpalumpacus Wrote: My understanding of the AfD is that it's pretty far-right under a veneer of civility.
That very much depends. Some exponents are pretty good at pretending to be civil, others don't even try. Truth is, they're all in the same boat of instrumentalising fear, prejudice, resentments and hatred for their political gain. In German there's the term "Wutbürger", which roughly translates into outraged citizen. Apart from the die hard borderline nazis, this is the electorate the AfD and brethren in spirit adress. They pretend to be anti establishment and to listen when all they are doing is inciting fear and hatred.
100% agree.
Edit: what is also noteworthy is the "fake news" approach. The AfD, like many other current far right movements, is blaming the press for its bad image. The term used is "Lügenpresse"* (lying press), which coincidently....guess who used as well a mere lifetime ago.
* Lügenpresse was coined "bad word of the year" in ....2014!
RE: elections in Brandenburg and Saxony - Deesse23 - 09-02-2019
Just had a look, and next election is in October*. Another eastern german state. Thuringia. Complete different, but eerily similar situation. Current administration is a coalition of green, social demoncrats and socialists. PM is socialist. The conservatives are actually the biggest faction with 33%.
Predictions are that the conservatives will lose 10% and AfD will gain 10%. Socialists will actually be biggest faction (and PM probably will continue to be socialist). AfD will top out at 20% again, which is unusually high, like in all eastern german states, compared to the nation wide average of ca. 12%.
Below the current national trend, showing that the AfD actually peaked in 2018 and is slowly declining, on a national scale. Thats why i said in another post that, for now, the AfD is contained. On a national scale the rise of the Green party (and decline of social democrats) is the way bigger topic.
![[Image: Mittelwerte_der_Umfragen_und_Prognosen_z...gswahl.png]](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8a/Mittelwerte_der_Umfragen_und_Prognosen_zur_20._Bundestagswahl.png)
*next elections after that are 2+2 western and eastern german states, for a total of 17mio westerners and 4mio easterners. Plus a nation wide election, all in 2021. I think the outcome of the next US election will play some role in the fate of AfD, albeit not a decisive one.
RE: elections in Brandenburg and Saxony - Mathilda - 09-02-2019
The conversation I am having with my mum at the moment every time I phone her up on the weekend is whether fascism is more likely to rise in Germany or the UK. I argue the UK because we don't expect it to and assume that we somehow have greater resistance to it. Too many people still remember the effects of post-war Germany. I'm certainly more aware of this than other Brits being dual national German as I grew up with it in my family history.
On the other hand, the younger generation in Britain are predominantly anti-fascist and generally you need their energy and strength to make a fascist movement a success. But I think the UK is an exception. The only difference between a fascist movement and an authoritarian totalitarian government is how long it has been in power. The establishment in Britain has been in continual power since feudal times since we haven't been conquered since 1066. Add to that we are an island nation that had both the Enlightenment and Industrial revolution that allowed us to build an empire across the world and this really embedded the establishment in to British culture, much like how Nazism quickly sought to do the same. This is why class is so important in the UK. If you are not in the upper class then the system is rigged against you no matter what field you are in.
The upper class are raised with a sense of entitlement that was exacerbated by the British empire being able to funnel wealth from other countries. We now longer have an empire but the entitlement remains and this means the same amount of wealth is being extracted from an increasingly smaller pie as the last remnants of the empire are sold off. Then with Thatcher they started selling off the assets of the country with privatisation. Everything since then has been more of the same. And that means having greater control of the population. So union power was destroyed. Boom & bust economic cycles meant that we were more bothered about either surviving or getting rich when we had the chance. This destroyed communities. And then austerity while the banks were bailed out and immigrants were blamed. Then the EU referendum to remove rights given to us by the EU which went far beyond what we could ever achieve demanding directly from the British government. And the powers that have come back to Britain have been directed to Westminster even when the devolved parliaments should be getting them. And now they are shutting down Westminster parliament when it is convenient for them.
And the younger generation who we need to fight fascism have it tougher now than any of us. They have no chance of buying a house or getting a pension, start their adult lives massively in debt to get an education which gives them the same kind of jobs in the gig economy that previously did not require a degree. So the more they need to work at just surviving the more control the establishment has and the less chance the next generation have of sorting out this shit sandwich of a world.
RE: elections in Brandenburg and Saxony - Szuchow - 09-02-2019
(09-01-2019, 05:19 PM)Deesse23 Wrote: Bad news: Everybody loses, only AfD gains, a lot
Good news: Conservatives in Saxony and Social Democrats in Brandenburg will stay strongest factions, and not the AfD
Mixed bag: Due to right wing surge, current coalitions wont have 50%, so new/extended coalitions will have to be formed
Noteworthy numbers:
Saxony: Conservatives top out at 33%. Even the socialists (who are strong in eastern Germany) lose 8%. AfD tops out at 28%
Brandenburg: Similar situation. Social democrats top out at 26,5%. Socialists lose 8% again. AfD gets 24,5%
I was quite surprised the socialists lost big time in both (post 1989) of their strongholds.
Brandenburg had a red/red coalition between social democrats and socialits which wont be viable anymore now .
Saxony had a conservative/social democrat coalition which will have to get expanded to green or socialists, or become a minority government. Brandenburg will need a 3 party coalition as well if AfD is not supposed to be included. So far everyone has declined to form a coalition with AfD. Tricky situation.
tl;dr:
Right wing has 25%-30% now, but will we be able to keep them out of coalitions?
Note: "only" 6,5/80mio Germans have voted (25% right wing) today.
I guess some Germans looked at PiS and decided that they can show how right wing extremism should really roll.
RE: elections in Brandenburg and Saxony - abaris - 09-02-2019
(09-02-2019, 03:10 PM)Szuchow Wrote: I guess some Germans looked at PiS and decided that they can show how right wing extremism should really roll.
I guess they speak to the same kind of electorate. Disenfranchised angry people, the elderly and rural voters. Whenever one looks at the people who vote for the extreme right, the elderly and less educated people are always overrepresented. Millenials hardly ever vote for something like that. Internationally. So it's a generational problem also. The old fuck it up for pretty much everyone else. Even with brexit, the picture is very similar.
RE: elections in Brandenburg and Saxony - Deesse23 - 09-02-2019
(09-02-2019, 03:38 PM)abaris Wrote: I guess they speak to the same kind of electorate. Disenfranchised angry people, the elderly and rural voters. Whenever one looks at the people who vote for the extreme right, the elderly and less educated people are always overrepresented. Millenials hardly ever vote for something like that. Internationally. So it's a generational problem also. The old fuck it up for pretty much everyone else. Even with brexit, the picture is very similar.Bolding mine.
Statistics comform you, but for two points: The bolded parts. Age wise the 30-60y old people are overrepersented. Youger and elderly people are actually less likely to vote AfD. Looking at annual income the voters of AfD arent particularly low on income, but they feel disenfranchised, aka. They arent worse off they just have a lower tolerance.
While voters for AfD certainly seem not to have a particularly high eduaction level, its actually also not particularly low as well.
The "stereotypical" voter for AfD seems to be an middle aged on all levels average male from a rural part of eastern Germany with a particularly low tolerance of frustration.*
Various demographics agree on the following about AfD voters:
- 30-60y old
- Twice as many people vote AfD in eastern Germany
- 2 out of 3 AfD voters are male
- In the west its more likely that you have lower income**
- In the east its more likely you live in a rural area
- Education is average***
- You are frustrated with the current situation in general
- You are more likely to be worried about terrorism and (mass) immigration
*how does that match the US demographics?
** people with lower income seem more likely to vote social democat, socialist or not at all
*** People with the lowest level of education surprisingly have *only* voted with average numbers for AfD
RE: elections in Brandenburg and Saxony - Deesse23 - 09-04-2019
15min german docu (in english!) about new right wing in (eastern) Germany.
RE: elections in Brandenburg and Saxony - Mathilda - 09-04-2019
Fuck. Same old shit again isn't it.
2 peple killed in Nazi attack - Deesse23 - 10-10-2019
Date: Yom Kippur
Location, Halle, Germany*
Nazi scum tries to initiate a massacre in the synagogue. Wields two guns. Manages to kill *only* two people because he is too incompetent to break down the front door.
For some reason, the nearby police takes more than 10 mins to arrive: I am sure we will hear from this in a couple of days/weeks again
*eastern Germany, where the brown goo is currently festering
RE: 2 peple killed in Nazi attack - abaris - 10-10-2019
And there's the usual reluctance to call it terror. The police announced today that they are busy fighting terrorism. They can't fight rightwing extremism at the same time. Yeah, sure, this wasn't terrorism, just something else entirely. And let's see, the last islamist attack happened almost three years ago. Now, after the assassination of Walter Lübcke in june, there have been two nazi driven attacks within the last four months. Nothing to be concerned about?
RE: 2 peple killed in Nazi attack - Deesse23 - 10-10-2019
After failing to break down the synagogues front door he went across the street and entered a kebab shop and killed a guy.
RE: 2 peple killed in Nazi attack - Gawdzilla Sama - 10-10-2019
(10-10-2019, 10:53 AM)Deesse23 Wrote: After failing to break down the synagogues front door he went across the street and entered a kebab shop and killed a guy.
Weird. Big fat target is well protected. Oy vey, who knew?