Ukraine (Topical thread)

[jerry mcmasters]

The US weapons industry will have something to say about all this

"Buy me!  Buy me!"

[Cavebear]

U.S. intelligence found that Russia is planning a military offensive against Ukraine involving 175,000 troops near the border as early as next year, according to an intelligence document obtained by The Washington Post.

U.S. officials also spoke with the newspaper on the matter.

The document obtained by the Post shows Russia is planning to deploy 175,000 troops to the Ukraine border by early 2022. The document also contains satellite photos of the military buildup.

The Post reported that Russia has “newly arrived” tanks and artillery, with 50 battlefield tactical groups deployed. The buildup is currently happening in four locations on the border, according to the document.

“The Russian plans call for a military offensive against Ukraine as soon as early 2022 with a scale of forces twice what we saw this past spring during Russia’s snap exercise near Ukraine’s borders,” an administration official told the outlet. “The plans involve extensive movement of 100 battalion tactical groups with an estimated 175,000 personnel, along with armor, artillery and equipment.”

An official who spoke on the condition of anonymity confirmed to The Associated Press the number of troops, adding that almost half of the 175,000 are already deployed along various points on the Russia-Ukraine border.

The U.S. estimates Russia has roughly 70,000 troops on the ground currently.

A Ukrainian intelligence chief told the Military Times in November that Russia was planning an attack on the country by late January.

Along with the military buildup, the administration official said Russia has started a propaganda campaign against Ukraine and NATO.

“Additionally, in the past month, our information indicates Russian influence proxies and media outlets have started to increase content denigrating Ukraine and NATO, in part to pin the blame for a potential Russian military escalation on Ukraine,” the administration official said.

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/58433...-troops-as

And now per the radio discussion I am listening to, Russia is threatening land war if NATO does NOT agree to not consider Eastern Europe Russian influenced nations.

I don't like assassination as a way to control dictators, but if a bomb dropped on Putin, The World sure wouldn't weep.

[Minimalist]

Let him be in a room with Fuckface when it goes off.

[Thumpalumpacus]

I imagine the boffins in the Pentagon, with access to satellite imagery, probably have a pretty good idea of when the go-no go point is on the decision to invade or not.

Found these on Reuters this morning:











Looks to me like vehicle parks and bivouacs. I'd imagine that the real clue will be when they forward-deploy the CAS elements of their air force.

[Thumpalumpacus]

Thousands of Russian troops are reportedly withdrawing from the Ukrainian border after conducting drills for roughly a month.

Reuters reported on Saturday that more than 10,000 Russian troops were leaving a number of regions near Ukraine — including Crimea, Rostov and Kuban — and returning to permanent bases.

The news service pointed to reporting from the Interfax news agency, which cited the Russian military.

“A stage of combat coordination of divisions, combat crews, squads at motorized units... has been completed. More than 10,000 military servicemen... will march to their permanent deployment from the territory of the combined arms' area of drills,” the Russian army is quoted as saying in the Interfax report, according to Reuters.

Russia had amassed tens of thousands of troops in regions north, east and south of Ukraine, Reuters noted, which alarmed Kyiv and western nations that Moscow may be planning an attack.

U.S. intelligence earlier this year revealed that Russia was planning a military offensive against Ukraine as early as next year that would involve the deployment of 175,000 troops near the border.

https://thehill.com/policy/international...der-report

[Alan V]

Misinformation as a stepping stone to war:

NBC:

The U.S. has information that the Russian government is planning a "false-flag" operation to rationalize an invasion of Ukraine, a government official said Friday.

"We have information that indicates Russia has already pre-positioned a group of operatives to conduct a false-flag operation in eastern Ukraine. The operatives are trained in urban warfare and in using explosives to carry out acts of sabotage against Russia’s own proxy-forces," the official said, confirming a CNN report.

[Thumpalumpacus]

Misinformation as a stepping stone to war:

NBC:

The U.S. has information that the Russian government is planning a "false-flag" operation to rationalize an invasion of Ukraine, a government official said Friday.

"We have information that indicates Russia has already pre-positioned a group of operatives to conduct a false-flag operation in eastern Ukraine. The operatives are trained in urban warfare and in using explosives to carry out acts of sabotage against Russia’s own proxy-forces," the official said, confirming a CNN report.

I read this on the news earlier. I wonder how much of this info the USA has passed on to Ukraine.

[epronovost]

Misinformation as a stepping stone to war:

NBC:

The U.S. has information that the Russian government is planning a "false-flag" operation to rationalize an invasion of Ukraine, a government official said Friday.

"We have information that indicates Russia has already pre-positioned a group of operatives to conduct a false-flag operation in eastern Ukraine. The operatives are trained in urban warfare and in using explosives to carry out acts of sabotage against Russia’s own proxy-forces," the official said, confirming a CNN report.

I'll put on my aluminum foil hat on and say the following. What if this was actually an invention of our intelligence services to serve as a pretext for imposing sanction and deploying troops against the Russians all the while hide the fact that those "Russian agents" our actually ours and thus avoid the public thinking its government is conducting a war of aggression instead of a defensive one?

While I do not seriously believe it to be the case, I have no trust in warmongers; including their fans in the media. I don't believe Russia will launch anything close to an invasion. They cannot win any form of armed conflict and trying to annex Ukraine in its totality would be a risky gambit. Crimea was already a tall order, but the West was distracted by the situation in Syria and Libya at that time and Crimean were always rather "pro-Russia", much more than their western compatriots. This is just sabre rattling from Russia to keep the population fearful of the West and, in the West, is a pretext to smack Russia around a bit and keep the door wide open to Ukraine rich natural resources. My opinion is that both little imperial powers should shut the fuck up, the world is already burning, it doesn't need their extra dose of gasoline. Also yes, all of their penises are extremely small, everybody knows it, we are laughing of them all the time, deal with it.

[Alan V]

What if this was actually an invention of our intelligence services to serve as a pretext for imposing sanction and deploying troops against the Russians all the while hide the fact that those "Russian agents" our actually ours and thus avoid the public thinking its government is conducting a war of aggression instead of a defensive one?

There are several possibilities, of course.  This could also be bad intelligence, it could be a feint by Russia to test the waters, it could be real but still never happen, and so on.  I go by probabilities in assessing such information, since I certainly don't trust my own intuitions.  The simplest explanation is typically the most likely.

Nevertheless, as with most things, we will likely never know for certain. We live with any number of uncertainties.

[Antonio]

China is taking notes

[Thumpalumpacus]

Misinformation as a stepping stone to war:

NBC:

The U.S. has information that the Russian government is planning a "false-flag" operation to rationalize an invasion of Ukraine, a government official said Friday.

"We have information that indicates Russia has already pre-positioned a group of operatives to conduct a false-flag operation in eastern Ukraine. The operatives are trained in urban warfare and in using explosives to carry out acts of sabotage against Russia’s own proxy-forces," the official said, confirming a CNN report.

I'll put on my aluminum foil hat on and say the following. What if this was actually an invention of our intelligence services to serve as a pretext for imposing sanction and deploying troops against the Russians all the while hide the fact that those "Russian agents" our actually ours and thus avoid the public thinking its government is conducting a war of aggression instead of a defensive one?

While I do not seriously believe it to be the case, I have no trust in warmongers; including their fans in the media. I don't believe Russia will launch anything close to an invasion. They cannot win any form of armed conflict and trying to annex Ukraine in its totality would be a risky gambit. Crimea was already a tall order, but the West was distracted by the situation in Syria and Libya at that time and Crimean were always rather "pro-Russia", much more than their western compatriots. This is just sabre rattling from Russia to keep the population fearful of the West and, in the West, is a pretext to smack Russia around a bit and keep the door wide open to Ukraine rich natural resources. My opinion is that both little imperial powers should shut the fuck up, the world is already burning, it doesn't need their extra dose of gasoline. Also yes, all of their penises are extremely small, everybody knows it, we are laughing of them all the time, deal with it.

On the other hand, Lt Col Vindman, he of Ukrainian-Trumpian hearings and an expert on the region, answered this question on NPR earlier this week as follows:

KELLY: As I said at the beginning, no one knows for sure whether Putin will invade. But based on what you can see now, based on your military expertise, where would you rate the chances - scale of 1 to 10?

VINDMAN: I would say, I'm somewhere at an eight, which is pretty amazing. I - this weekend, as I was thinking about these meetings unfolding, I kind of had the pre-combat patrol, pre-battle jitters of recognizing something really serious was coming.

KELLY: And why? What was it you were looking at that was giving you the jitters?

VINDMAN: Because right now, as far apart as the sides are, Russians have laid out a maximalist position. The U.S. said it's not willing to negotiate on very principled positions - I agree with those positions - on sovereign states determining their own orientation and rolling back the clock on the NATO alliance back to 1997. I don't see - and Russia's main focus here, which is achieving a failed state in Ukraine - how we could overcome these things. There is - the most likely scenario in my mind is a major military offensive in Ukraine. I hope I'm wrong, but that's what I see. The less likely scenario is some sort of diplomatic negotiation with some off ramps, with some face-saving measures, where the Russians can say, well, we are in the midst of negotiations - we might be able to achieve what we want. I find that hard to believe that we'll head in that direction.

https://www.npr.org/2022/01/10/107189662...e-tensions

He clearly thinks that an invasion is likely, and given his shady treatment during the Trump impeachment hearings, would probably not be happy pushing a just-so story all the same to support the hands which threw him to the dogs.

[Thumpalumpacus]

China is taking notes

And lining up to cover any shortages sanctions might bring about.

[Mr Greene]

Misinformation as a stepping stone to war:

NBC:

The U.S. has information that the Russian government is planning a "false-flag" operation to rationalize an invasion of Ukraine, a government official said Friday.

"We have information that indicates Russia has already pre-positioned a group of operatives to conduct a false-flag operation in eastern Ukraine. The operatives are trained in urban warfare and in using explosives to carry out acts of sabotage against Russia’s own proxy-forces," the official said, confirming a CNN report.

I'll put on my aluminum foil hat on and say the following. What if this was actually an invention of our intelligence services to serve as a pretext for imposing sanction and deploying troops against the Russians all the while hide the fact that those "Russian agents" our actually ours and thus avoid the public thinking its government is conducting a war of aggression instead of a defensive one?

While I do not seriously believe it to be the case, I have no trust in warmongers; including their fans in the media. I don't believe Russia will launch anything close to an invasion. They cannot win any form of armed conflict and trying to annex Ukraine in its totality would be a risky gambit. Crimea was already a tall order, but the West was distracted by the situation in Syria and Libya at that time and Crimean were always rather "pro-Russia", much more than their western compatriots. This is just sabre rattling from Russia to keep the population fearful of the West and, in the West, is a pretext to smack Russia around a bit and keep the door wide open to Ukraine rich natural resources. My opinion is that both little imperial powers should shut the fuck up, the world is already burning, it doesn't need their extra dose of gasoline. Also yes, all of their penises are extremely small, everybody knows it, we are laughing of them all the time, deal with it.

I doubt Moscow is interested in Ukraine in its entirety. They'll grab the lucrative ports and leave the north as a rump.

[SYZ]

...I doubt Moscow is interested in Ukraine in its entirety. They'll grab the lucrative ports and leave the north as a rump.

Yes.      Russia would love to get its hands on Ukraine's
Black Sea ports such as Odessa, Pivdennyi or Sevastopol.

[Thumpalumpacus]

I think for reasons of culture and history they would like the entirety of Ukraine. I think this fits hand-in-glove with Putin's drive to return to the prestige of the 70s USSR, too.

WASHINGTON, Jan 14 (Reuters) - The United States is concerned that Russia is preparing for an invasion of Ukraine soon by fabricating a pretext for war if diplomacy fails to meet its objectives, the White House said on Friday.

Talks between the United States, its European allies and Russia ended in a stalemate this week with no current plans to meet again about Russia's deployment of tens of thousands of troops along Ukraine's border. A cyber attack against Ukraine has further inflamed tensions. read more

A spokesperson for the White House National Security Council said it was not yet clear who was responsible for the cyber attack but that President Joe Biden had been briefed on it.

"We are in touch with the Ukrainians and have offered our support as Ukraine investigates the impact and nature and recovers from the incidents. We don’t have an attribution at this time," the spokesperson said.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-...022-01-14/

[Thumpalumpacus]

Microsoft announced on Saturday that dozens of computer systems linked to the Ukrainian government, agencies and organizations had been infected with malware.

Microsoft in a statement said the malware, which was initially detected on Thursday, was disguised as ransomware but could infect computers and make them inoperable if activated by the attacker.

The company wrote in a separate statement that the malware was detected on “dozens of impacted systems and that number could grow as our investigation continues.”

“These systems span multiple government, non-profit, and information technology organizations, all based in Ukraine,’ the company wrote.

Microsoft said the malware impacted government agencies that handle executive branch or emergency response functions. It also reportedly affected an IT firm that oversees websites for public- and private-sector clients, including government agencies that were hit with a cyberattack last week that posted various messages on websites.

A “massive cyberattack” breached a number of Ukrainian government websites on Friday, according to officials, which led some agency websites to be temporarily shut down. Hackers reportedly wrote messages including “be afraid and expect worse” and “All information about you has become public, be afraid and expect worse.”

Microsoft’s announcement that malware had been detected on Ukrainian government systems comes amid concerns in the U.S. that rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine may lead Moscow to carry out hacking operations. Ukraine has been the target of Russia’s hacking efforts in the past.

https://thehill.com/policy/cybersecurity...th-malware

This has been going on for years, but the targeted agencies (executive branch and emergency-response offices) would seem to indicate that Russia is still giving serious consideration to invasion.

[Dānu]

[abaris]

I'm no fan of Putin. Never was, never will be. But plans to make Ukraine part of NATO are on the same lines as the Cuba crisis was for the US. They can't accept that and that has little to do with Putin and more with Russia itself. Same goes for the Crimean. It's not excusable but it's understandable, seeing as the Crimean holds the only black sea harbor for the Russian fleet.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Himmler

[Deesse23]

Looks like Annalena Baerbock has told Putins foreign minister in no uncertain terms that Nord Stream 2 is at stake if Russia does not stop its agression against Ukraine. I am not sure if Putin is going to be impressed.
Scholz also declined pleas of Ukraine for german warships and AA systems to defend itself against russian agression.

[SYZ]

I'm no fan of Putin. Never was, never will be. But plans to make Ukraine part of NATO are on the same lines as the Cuba crisis was for the US...

Except that the US navy can't blockade Ukraine as they did Cuba in 1962
in order to force the issue of booting Russian nukes out of the island. It was
lucky that Khrushchev backed down.    I'm guessing Putin wouldn't have in
that scenario.

[Thumpalumpacus]

I'm no fan of Putin. Never was, never will be. But plans to make Ukraine part of NATO are on the same lines as the Cuba crisis was for the US...

Except that the US navy can't blockade Ukraine as they did Cuba in 1962
in order to force the issue of booting Russian nukes out of the island. It was
lucky that Khrushchev backed down.    I'm guessing Putin wouldn't have in
that scenario.

I think the obverse matters more: Putin can essentially blockade Ukraine for most of its frontier (using its ally Belarus as well), and if a shooting war breaks out, can chokepoint and snuff out weapons-supplies coming from Western Europe. The bottom line is that if Russia decides to invade Ukraine, there's precious little NATO/EU/USA can do about it short of a full-scale, multifront war. And without Western assistance -- and not just with weapons and supplies but manpower and airpower as well -- Ukraine won't be able to withstand such an invasion.

I personally think Putin is putting up a bluff, thinking that the West is so averse of war that we will cave. He is probably right. It's no coincidence he chose this season for this gambit; Europe in winter without Russian oil and natual gas will result in massive privation in democratic Europe, with all that implies.

The US Navy cannot blockade Ukraine, but it can devalue one of the main aims of Russian expansionism in this case, namely, the utility of the Ukrainian seacoast benefitting the Russian navy, such as it is.

[Thumpalumpacus]

From an opinion piece at The Hill:

Here — in addition to squeezing energy supplies to Western Europe, which gets 41 percent of its natural gas from Russia, or causing military trouble elsewhere — are some of the Kremlin’s active options to retaliate for additional military assistance to Ukraine, tougher economic sanctions or other measures:

• Leak stolen information and double down on disinformation campaigns to deepen divisions in the U.S. and other Western countries. Amplifying COVID disinformation is only Moscow’s latest gambit in its effort to pit us against one another. Disrupting elections is another Moscow specialty: There are no indications that Russia has abandoned state-backed hacking operations such the ones waged against the Democratic National Committee (DNC) in 2015 and 2016 or the theft and leak of DNC leadership emails in 2016 that diverted attention from Donald Trump’s vulgar “Hollywood Access” tape on the eve of the 2016 election.
  
  
• Play the “kompromat” card. Under President Vladimir Putin, a former Soviet KGB officer, Russia’s military and foreign intelligence agencies continue to harvest compromising information about key figures. Unleashing a flood of such information would divert attention and roil the political and social landscapes of many countries.
  
  
• In the worst-case scenario, Moscow could escalate its cyberattacks on critical infrastructure. Last week, with the fragility of global supply chains in full view, the U.S. government issued an alert to American critical infrastructure firms to be on the lookout for Russian cyber threats. Phil Venables, Google Cloud’s chief information security officer, recently said vulnerabilities remain in part “because many organizations, including public sector and critical infrastructure, rely on hard-to-defend outdated legacy systems and software.”
  

The National Security Agency and U.S. Cyber Command have begun more-intensive monitoring of cyber threats ahead of this November’s midterm election, and last week the Biden administration appointed a 30-year Central Intelligence Agency veteran to oversee election threats.

Russia has made “maskirovka” (disguise) tactics of denial and deception a central element of its military doctrine since at least the early 20th Century. The 1978 Soviet Military Encyclopedia emphasized maskirovka on strategic levels, including political, economic and diplomatic measures in addition to military actions. “The role of nonmilitary means of achieving political and strategic goals has grown, and, in many cases, they have exceeded the power of force of weapons in their effectiveness,” General Valery Gerasimov, chief of the general staff of the Russian Federation, wrote in 2013.

Putin has other options short of war as well -- natural-gas diplomacy against the EU springs to mind.

[abaris]

I personally think Putin is putting up a bluff, thinking that the West is so averse of war that we will cave. He is probably right. It's no coincidence he chose this season for this gambit; Europe in winter without Russian oil and natual gas will result in massive privation in democratic Europe, with all that implies.

Putin is anything but a fool. Of course he knows, the West won't risk war. And we can't risk it with the chance of becoming ivolved in a nuclear conflict. I'm also sure, he's not eager to go to war with the West either. But as I said before, it's not only about Putin, it's about Russian pride if you so wish. For Russia, drawing Ukraine into Nato is on the same lines as the Cuba crisis was for the USA. It's the one step too far and I don't think any other Russian leader than Putin would be able to accept that either.

[Thumpalumpacus]

I personally think Putin is putting up a bluff, thinking that the West is so averse of war that we will cave. He is probably right. It's no coincidence he chose this season for this gambit; Europe in winter without Russian oil and natual gas will result in massive privation in democratic Europe, with all that implies.

Putin is anything but a fool. Of course he knows, the West won't risk war. And we can't risk it with the chance of becoming ivolved in a nuclear conflict. I'm also sure, he's not eager to go to war with the West either. But as I said before, it's not only about Putin, it's about Russian pride if you so wish. For Russia, drawing Ukraine into Nato is on the same lines as the Cuba crisis was for the USA. It's the one step too far and I don't think any other Russian leader than Putin would be able to accept that either.

The question is, can the Russians afford to get their active-duty military bogged down in a war estimated to require 200-500,000 ground troops to secure Ukraine, while at the same time even Ukrainian civilians are preparing for insurgency tactics?

I know Putin is no fool. I also know that if Russia does invade, there's no way the West can provide enough military muscle on the spot to stop this hypothetical invasion. Ukraine will be taken if Russia decides it wants it bad enough.

And as I noted above, the social and cultural ties between Ukraine and Russia go back centuries, so I sure don't have an argument with your comparison to Cuba, except to point out that the US had a very different, colonialist relationship with Cuba for only sixty years, whereas Russia and Ukraine have been tied together much longer and much closer.

I have read that Ukrainians are feeling those ties much weaker now since the proxy war in the Donbas and the seizure of Crimea. If there's any other correction you think should work on my view, I'm all ears. The American media is covering this as a superpower confrontation, but giving little airtime or ink to the local views on the ground in Ukraine. Perhaps your media has a different angle I'm unaware of, but should take into account.