Ukraine (Topical thread)

[abaris]

He needs to read up on history. I can fully understand Germany's reluctance to get involved it would actually make things worse and would be a massive propaganda coup for Putin as well as potentially enraging the Russian people.

It's even worse with some European countries. Weapons aren't to be sold to countries that already are in an active conflict. It was quite the scandal, when Germany sold Leopard tanks, especially equipped to do street fighting, to Saudi Arabia. It's even more stringent with my own country, Austria, when cannons, produced by Noricum, turned up at some hotspot. We're not supposed to sell them there, since our status is neutral, just like Switzerland's.

[Thumpalumpacus]

The American State Department has also started recalling nonessential personnel, and encouraging American family-members of the diplomats to evacuate as well.

NPR is reporting that in addition to our 50,000 troops already in the EU, we're alerting an additional 8,500 CONUS troops to deploy on short notice to the easternmost NATO members. This likely includes air power and logistics specialists.

[abaris]

The American State Department has also started recalling nonessential personnel, and encouraging American family-members of the diplomats to evacuate as well.

NPR is reporting that in addition to our 50,000 troops already in the EU, we're alerting an additional 8,500 CONUS troops to deploy on short notice to the easternmost NATO members. This likely includes air power and logistics specialists.

I read about that. Fearmongering in my book.

[Thumpalumpacus]

The American State Department has also started recalling nonessential personnel, and encouraging American family-members of the diplomats to evacuate as well.

NPR is reporting that in addition to our 50,000 troops already in the EU, we're alerting an additional 8,500 CONUS troops to deploy on short notice to the easternmost NATO members. This likely includes air power and logistics specialists.

I read about that. Fearmongering in my book.

Which part?

[abaris]

Which part?

Both. But especially the withdrawal of diplomatic personal. It's geared at creating a feeling of high urgency. Which is ludcrous in any case, since, even if Russia was to invade Ukraine, they wouldn't touch Western embassies.

[Thumpalumpacus]

Which part?

Both. But especially the withdrawal of diplomatic personal. It's geared at creating a feeling of high urgency. Which is ludcrous in any case, since, even if Russia was to invade Ukraine, they wouldn't touch Western embassies.

They may not target them, but ammunition doesn't respect boundaries, and besides, how many live outside the embassies? I think withdrawing non-essential personnel is good insofar as it minimizes the possibilities of a tragic incident escalating this hypothetical war. And if such a war kicked off, then the possibility of a successful evacuation drops dramatically. The last thing the Biden Administration wants right now is yet another hectic airport scene.

[abaris]

The last thing the Biden Administration wants right now is yet another hectic airport scene.

Or another Benghazi. I get your point.

[SYZ]

As an Australian of a certain age, I really don't give two fucks whatever
happens in Ukraine.  Our balance of trade is around AU$40 million annually,
which is tiny drop in a financial ocean.  We spend more than that every year
hosting the F1 Grand Prix in Melbourne.

[adey67]

Which part?

Both. But especially the withdrawal of diplomatic personal. It's geared at creating a feeling of high urgency. Which is ludcrous in any case, since, even if Russia was to invade Ukraine, they wouldn't touch Western embassies.

They may not target them, but ammunition doesn't respect boundaries, and besides, how many live outside the embassies? I think withdrawing non-essential personnel is good insofar as it minimizes the possibilities of a tragic incident escalating this hypothetical war. And if such a war kicked off, then the possibility of a
successful evacuation drops dramatically. The last thing the Biden Administration wants right now is yet another hectic airport scene.

Talking of ammo my guess is that both the US and UK have possibly figured out that the amounts of ammunition being stockpiled by the Russian forces is far in excess of what's required for military exercises or mere posturing. It's just an hypothesis but not I think an unreasonable one.

[Thumpalumpacus]

Talking of ammo my guess is that both the US and UK have possibly figured out that the amounts of ammunition being stockpiled by the Russian forces is far in excess of what's required for military exercises or mere posturing. It's just an hypothesis but not I think an unreasonable one.

If you look at the pics I posted upthread, the Russians are massing troops and equipment near the border, and there are ammo dumps in those pics.

We'll know the balloon is going up if and when the VVS start moving air assets into range. There's no hiding airfields and associated activities, and you don't move air power around unless you're getting ready to drop bombs, because it's mighty expensive.

[adey67]

Talking of ammo my guess is that both the US and UK have possibly figured out that the amounts of ammunition being stockpiled by the Russian forces is far in excess of what's required for military exercises or mere posturing. It's just an hypothesis but not I think an unreasonable one.

If you look at the pics I posted upthread, the Russians are massing troops and equipment near the border, and there are ammo dumps in those pics.

We'll know the balloon is going up if and when the VVS start moving air assets into range. There's no hiding airfields and associated activities, and you don't move air power around unless you're getting ready to drop bombs, because it's mighty expensive.

Good point.

[abaris]

Talking of ammo my guess is that both the US and UK have possibly figured out that the amounts of ammunition being stockpiled by the Russian forces is far in excess of what's required for military exercises or mere posturing. It's just an hypothesis but not I think an unreasonable one.

That's as maybe. But it's also about public opinion. I remember the soviet engagement in Afghanistan, when it was all about the evil invaders and the galant freedom fighters. That was in 1979, when we had mainly our national news ressource and no internet. Turned out, the galant freedom fighters also gave us Al Quaeda and later on ISIS.

Same story was run with Serbia and Iraq. Serbia being all evil and the albanian UCK being all good. Iraq being evil, having all kinds of weapons of mass destruction and so on.

After more than four decades of being told stories, I'm not ready to buy any tale that is served to me on a silver platter.

[Minimalist]

I'll tell you the one thing that bothers me about this whole scenario.  It is not news.  Russia began building up a troop presence on the border in March of 2021.

It flies in the face of military theory to line up and let and enemy know you are coming.

“Surprise becomes effective when we suddenly face the enemy at one point with far more troops than he expected. This type of numerical superiority is quite distinct from numerical superiority in general: it is the most powerful medium in the art of war.”

― Carl von Clausewitz

Strike the enemy at a time or place or in a manner for which he is unprepared. Surprise can decisively shift the balance of combat power. By seeking surprise, forces can achieve success well out of proportion to the effort expended.   US Army Field Manual

What is going on is the antithesis of "surprise."  NATO has used the time to supply arms to Ukraine.  The weather is miserable in Eastern Ukraine in the winter.  Putin has to know this.  Even Hitler wasn't stupid enough to attack Russia before the mud dried.

[Thumpalumpacus]

The weather is miserable in Eastern Ukraine in the winter.  Putin has to know this.  Even Hitler wasn't stupid enough to attack Russia before the mud dried.

Right, that's the one thing that makes me think this is Russian bluster: this winter has been very mild there, and the ground isn't frozen. Rasputitsa will bog a mechanized army down mos' skosh. The weather is also not so great for air support.

[abaris]

Right, that's the one thing that makes me think this is Russian bluster: this winter has been very mild there, and the ground isn't frozen. Rasputitsa will bog a mechanized army down mos' skosh. The weather is also not so great for air support.

Even more than that, as I said much earlier, Putin isn't a fool. He may try to stage a coup in Ukraine, Chile-style, if he thinks to find allies to stage it from the inside, but he won't risk an all out invasion.

[Thumpalumpacus]

Right, that's the one thing that makes me think this is Russian bluster: this winter has been very mild there, and the ground isn't frozen. Rasputitsa will bog a mechanized army down mos' skosh. The weather is also not so great for air support.

Even more than that, as I said much earlier, Putin isn't a fool. He may try to stage a coup in Ukraine, Chile-style, if he thinks to find allies to stage it from the inside, but he won't risk an all out invasion.

The Ukrainians seem much more motivated to fight to me, after the Crimea annexation, and I'll bet dollars to your doughnuts that a Ukrainian insurgency would give the Russians a 10- or 15-year suppurating wound rght on their doorstep.

[Thumpalumpacus]

Right, that's the one thing that makes me think this is Russian bluster: this winter has been very mild there, and the ground isn't frozen. Rasputitsa will bog a mechanized army down mos' skosh. The weather is also not so great for air support.

Even more than that, as I said much earlier, Putin isn't a fool. He may try to stage a coup in Ukraine, Chile-style, if he thinks to find allies to stage it from the inside, but he won't risk an all out invasion.

The Ukrainians seem much more motivated to fight to me, after the Crimea annexation, and I'll bet dollars to your doughnuts that a Ukrainian insurgency would give the Russians a 10- or 15-year suppurating wound rght on their doorstep.

And to follow on: That's essentially what has been reported here, that one gambit Russia is considering is installing a friendly government from inside to "invite" them in -- or at least stir so much civic unrest that the Russians can portray themselves as intervening to stabilize a border nation.

[abaris]

The Ukrainians seem much more motivated to fight to me, after the Crimea annexation, and I'll bet dollars to your doughnuts that a Ukrainian insurgency would give the Russians a 10- or 15-year suppurating wound rght on their doorstep.

I already read your follow up. I haven't talked to a Russian and I haven't talked to a Ukrainian. So my knowledge is limited to the news sources and history. The Crimean is a relatively new aquirement for Ukraine. Chruschtschow donated the region in 1954 for some reason. On the other hand, there's a very strong Russian minority in Ukraine. That's what the fighting at the Dombass region is about. I'm not sure, who's more eager to fight it out.

[Thumpalumpacus]

The Ukrainians seem much more motivated to fight to me, after the Crimea annexation, and I'll bet dollars to your doughnuts that a Ukrainian insurgency would give the Russians a 10- or 15-year suppurating wound rght on their doorstep.

I already read your follow up. I haven't talked to a Russian and I haven't talked to a Ukrainian. So my knowledge is limited to the news sources and history. The Crimean is a relatively new aquirement for Ukraine. Chruschtschow donated the region in 1954 for some reason. On the other hand, there's a very strong Russian minority in Ukraine. That's what the fighting at the Dombass region is about. I'm not sure, who's more eager to fight it out.

I'm basing that comment about motivation based on the interviews I've heard on NPR with Ukrainians, and with anecdotes of dispirited Russian soldiers in 2014, so it's not locked-in. But I've definitely seen drift over the years from brotherly feelings about the Russians immediately after the USSR broke up in the 90s to a fierce Ukrainian sense of independence nowadays.

Of course I haven't spoken directly with anyone from either side as well, but it's what I'm picking up through reading and listening. But I'd bet that the Ukrainians would put up one hell of an insurgency after their defeat. I doubt Putin would want to see his last years eaten up by a quagmire.

[jerry mcmasters]

I suppose one advantage Putin always holds is dominance of the press. If he backs down he can always tell his people "goals were gloriously achieved and our brave fighters now return home in victory, having forced the enemy to back away from their attempt to invade the motherland." On the other hand there is always the truth and not even totalitarians can mask it forever, word would get around that the whole thing was an expensive fiasco.

[Thumpalumpacus]

If indeed Russia decides to go ahead with an invasion, they run a major risk of a bog. That is certainly in their thinking at some level. Putin is not stupid.

[jerry mcmasters]

It will be an Afghanistan for them. There will be an insurgency that will never stop.

[Vera]

Germany will supply 5,000 military helmets to Ukraine to help defend against a possible Russian invasion, it said on Wednesday - an offer Kyiv mayor and former world champion boxer Vitali Klitschko dismissed as "a joke" that left him "speechless".

"German Justice Minister Christine Lambrecht said the planned delivery would send a “very clear signal” that Germany stands by Ukraine amid rising tensions with Russia."

[Minimalist]

Ukraine cannot have much in the way of fond memories for its time in the USSR.  From Stalin's holocaust to Chernobyl the russkis did their dead level best to fuck things up royally.

[Thumpalumpacus]

Ukraine cannot have much in the way of fond memories for its time in the USSR.  From Stalin's holocaust to Chernobyl the russkis did their dead level best to fuck things up royally.

The Germans missed a prime ally in their invasion of the USSR by not enlisting Ukrainian resistance. The kulak terror, which resulted in a few million dead and millions of others put into internal exile (@Szuchow, help me with numbers?), resulted in intense anti-Soviet passions and the Ukrainians mounted an independent resistance movement all the same, knowing the Germans wouldn't accept their efforts.