Mafia game#7—Fruit Mafia

[Aliza]

@Aliza
Will you be around for a while?  3 hours until the flip.

I'm here, yeah.

[Aroura]

The fact that Paleo is acting as if I didn't give the information I promised is odd.

I did apologize if you had posted it and I'd missed it. The reason that I'd missed it was because I was looking for an analysis of which players spoke to which. That was the context that you mentioned it in and that could be important. Do you have that analysis handy?

Oh, you missed something, you must be scum! 

[Aroura]

@Aliza
Will you be around for a while?  3 hours until the flip.

I'm here, yeah.

Alright.  Well, as you are the claimed Vig, I will follow your lead.
Do you want me to vote Smerc to add pressure, or should we pressure Paleo?  I don't think he had any yet, and he's looking kinda desperate, imho.

[Aliza]

@Aliza
Will you be around for a while?  3 hours until the flip.

I'm here, yeah.

Alright.  Well, as you are the claimed Vig, I will follow your lead.
Do you want me to vote Smerc to add pressure, or should we pressure Paleo?  I don't think he had any yet, and he's looking kinda desperate, imho.

We can pressure Paleo for a bit since he's here. Yes, in fact, that makes sense.

Vote Paleophyte

[Aroura]

Vote Paleo

[Aroura]

Vote Paleophyte

Unvote

Random.voting.stage.

Funny. It seems you have taken a page out of Evie's book. It isn't of much pressure if you announce it as random. At least make up a reason even if half arsed to vote.

This seems to me like scum attempting to look actively scumhunting.

Vote Assassin

Wait, page from Evi's book? What was Evi's alignment when he did that? I'm starting to think you know how random votes work. In the beginning of the game, it is a common play. I only stated it was random because you asked... but you asked something you already knew the answer to, to set me up with a phony reason. 

Vote LastPoet

While we wait, let's look at some voting patterns, shall we?

Assassins first vote has no reason given.  Post 9.  That's fine. He admits it's random, which we do need to cover at some point for new players and why that is bad. (The following are all in my timezone, local times may vary)

Anyway, in post 62 he unvotes, that takes place at 6:56 am.
He gives NO reason for his unvote in that post, or at any time after.  He clearly does not do it in order to join another wagon, because he does not vote again until post #76, which is at 5:45 pm.  That's almost 11 hours after he unvoted Paleo! That strikes me as odd and possibly meaningful.

Assassin never directly addresses or quotes Paleo (that I can find!  I am a human who misses things)

Next, let's look at Paleo's votes and interactions with Assassin.  Then we'll do it all with Smerc, if you find any of this helpful Aliza? I'll do it for myself as well, if you want.

[Aroura]

Why?

Past game Bias.  Paleo has been scum in like 70% of the games he has played.  But that is some version of gamblers fallacy (or related at least).

60%

The probabilities are (or should be) independent of one another. I have the same 2 in 9 odds of drawing scum that anybody else does if they don't have the good sense to bribe the Mafia Bosses.

Vote Assassin

Your name is "Assassin". It's kind of a giveaway.

Not a whole lot to go on so far:

@Assassin You have a naked vote in post 9. It's also kinda useless because it wasn't pressuring a player who was here. Sure, RVS and all, but why didn't you target somebody who was around and might squeak interestingly?

@Revenant77x In post 15 are you saying that you're just going to lurk or have I misread that?

@Aliza You vote Merc in post 16 for little reason and then unvote her in post 17. What did Merc do to change your mind?

Not a whole lot to go on so far:

@Assassin You have a naked vote in post 9. It's also kinda useless because it wasn't pressuring a player who was here. Sure, RVS and all, but why didn't you target somebody who was around and might squeak interestingly?

Who else was around? The mod made most of the 8 previous posts at the time. There was just Mathilda and LastPoet who voted eachother over who posted first, wasn't really interested in that exchange. I thought it better to include more players, the game had just started. 

How is my random vote useless? To me it seems to be working fine.

Unvote

Hillariously, on my reread, I'm immediately wrong, lol.
So Assassin responds to Paleo here.  

Let's keep looking, though!

[Aroura]

Crap, all the other quotes are still following me.  I think I need to clear my cache

[Aroura]

Why?

Past game Bias.  Paleo has been scum in like 70% of the games he has played.  But that is some version of gamblers fallacy (or related at least).

60%

The probabilities are (or should be) independent of one another. I have the same 2 in 9 odds of drawing scum that anybody else does if they don't have the good sense to bribe the Mafia Bosses.

Vote Assassin

Your name is "Assassin". It's kind of a giveaway.

Not a whole lot to go on so far:

@Assassin You have a naked vote in post 9. It's also kinda useless because it wasn't pressuring a player who was here. Sure, RVS and all, but why didn't you target somebody who was around and might squeak interestingly?

@Revenant77x In post 15 are you saying that you're just going to lurk or have I misread that?

@Aliza You vote Merc in post 16 for little reason and then unvote her in post 17. What did Merc do to change your mind?

Not a whole lot to go on so far:

@Assassin You have a naked vote in post 9. It's also kinda useless because it wasn't pressuring a player who was here. Sure, RVS and all, but why didn't you target somebody who was around and might squeak interestingly?

Who else was around? The mod made most of the 8 previous posts at the time. There was just Mathilda and LastPoet who voted eachother over who posted first, wasn't really interested in that exchange. I thought it better to include more players, the game had just started. 

How is my random vote useless? To me it seems to be working fine.

Not a whole lot to go on so far:

@Assassin You have a naked vote in post 9. It's also kinda useless because it wasn't pressuring a player who was here. Sure, RVS and all, but why didn't you target somebody who was around and might squeak interestingly?

Who else was around? The mod made most of the 8 previous posts at the time. There was just Mathilda and LastPoet who voted eachother over who posted first, wasn't really interested in that exchange. I thought it better to include more players, the game had just started. 

How is my random vote useless? To me it seems to be working fine.

It has been useful in its own way. It's just that it might not have produced any results until tomorrow if I hadn't popped on until then, whereas voting somebody who's around to comment produces results almost immediately.

Unvote

Well, it's been a quiet night in the asylum.

Unvote

@Aroura We're in danger of having you juiced for inactivity. Speak up!

Ok, even MORE hilariously, I was wrong about Phaedrus, as Assassin did respond to him, and I missed in even though I've reread (scanned really) the first 5 or so pages of this thread like, half a dozen times now.

Back on topic.  Assassins very first post in the game is to vote Paleo.
Paleos very first post in the game is to vote Assassin.

Paloe admonishes Assassin for his naked vote, but his real complaint is that the vote was on a player who wasn't there to respond.
Considering it was post #9....how does that make sense?  WHo even knows who's around at that point in the game?

@Paleophyte did you honestly expect people in the first few hours of the game to wait and see who's online and vote them, as opposed to picking a random player?  You pointing out that you weren't on considering there was day talk with scum seems like it could be distancing.

The vote on Assassin is post #20, at 3:16 am.  The unvote is about 90 minutes later, post #42, and is immediately followed up by a vote on Phaedrus in the very same post.  So that doesn't look as bad as Assassins actions, to be fair. 

Let's check the second half of that day.

[Aroura]

Unvote

Some reads before I run off to the store:

Aliza: Mixed weak scum lean, mostly townie but that vote/unvote looks damned peculiar.
Revenant77x: Weak town lean, not a lot of posts but some pointed questions in the ones that he has made.
Phaedrus: Confusing null, either frustrated town or scummy. I don't know him well enough to get a good read.
Mathilda: Weak scum lean, low post number and low content in what there is. A sharp contrast to last game.
Smercury44: Weak town lean, good posts and reasoning.
Assassin: Weak town lean, similar to Rev.
Aroura: No Data
Lastpoet: Weak town lean, not a lot of posts but good quality.

Right now I'm worried about whether or not to lynch Aroura to head off a modkill. What is the thinking on this?

Just noting reads here.  Nul to weak town is very, very often where scum will place their partners on read lists.  This is simply true.
However all his reads are weak.  Another common scum move, because strong reads leave one in a tough position when you have to explain change of heart later if you are forced to join a wagon or something.
Still, this isn't conclusive at all.  This early in the game, weak reads are also to be expected.  I'm trying to see both possible sides.

[Paleophyte]

OMG, I get sooo tired of this kind of BS in mafia.

Interesting reaction from somebody who professed such willingness to be lynched for the good of town.

one post is still interacting with.  Smerc VOTED for Assassin, that's an interaction.  Since my OWN LIST does not include Smerc in it, it's pretty clear it's a simple oversight.

Granted and granted. I stated that I wasn't counting naked votes but was counting actual comments directed to or from Assassin. That still leaves Mathilda, Merc, Phaedrus, and you in a quiet block that didn't interact with Assassin much or at all. That makes your "critically" actually NAI. How did you not know that if you did the analysis you claimed to do?

TOWN make more mistakes than scum.  I say this every single game.  No one ever freaking listens.

I'm listening. You also said that we pressure everybody. That includes you. What we have here looks like several mistakes suggesting that you didn't do the rigorous analysis that you claimed to have done.

We NEED to hear from Smerc.  Until then, all of this is just pissing into the wind.

I do want to hear from Merc, but until then we pressure the VTs we have. That isn't pissing into the wind, it's scum-hunting.

[Aroura]

Unvote

Right now I'm worried about whether or not to lynch Aroura to head off a modkill. What is the thinking on this?

From my experience it's usually town that disappears but I won't mind voting her if a wagon forms. We need to get this wagon off me anyway. 

But in an ideal world we can lynch on my current wagon I know there is scum on there, because the original case is that I took a page out of Evi's book and didn't make up a reason for voting, thus taking my vote pressure off. But my vote has had way more pressure than LP and Mathildas vote. Also we have samples of if the whole theory is true. Our sample is Evi himself. Which he was town proving the whole case extremely wrong. Not only on the pressure part but the alignment part too. Town usually isnt this wrong.

IDK, this doesn't look scummy to me, even though it's about voting me off.  It seems like if they wanted to actually vote off someone, it wouldn't be the absent person.

[Aliza]

Come on, @Paleophyte. Paleo. We need to get this sorted out.

[Aroura]

Unvote

OMG, I get sooo tired of this kind of BS in mafia.

Interesting reaction from somebody who professed such willingness to be lynched for the good of town.

I am still willing to be lynched.  It's going to be up to the Vig in the end, today.
That doesn't excuse faulty reasoning, or prevent me from being frustrated when I see it.  If you are town, we can discuss it after the game.

[Aroura]

Unvote

Come on, @Paleophyte. Paleo. We need to get this sorted out.

You mean
@Smercury44?

[Aliza]

Unvote

Come on, @Paleophyte. Paleo. We need to get this sorted out.

You mean
@Smercury44?

No, I meant @Paleophyte. Our votes are currently on him.

[Aliza]

@Smercury44 isn't online. @Paleophyte is.

[Paleophyte]

The fact that Paleo is acting as if I didn't give the information I promised is odd.

I did apologize if you had posted it and I'd missed it. The reason that I'd missed it was because I was looking for an analysis of which players spoke to which. That was the context that you mentioned it in and that could be important. Do you have that analysis handy?

Oh, you missed something, you must be scum! 

I'm not understanding this level of reaction.

I voted you. Not the end of the world. Sure, town makes mistakes. I've made plenty myself. Keep you cool and convince me that's what I'm looking at. If I'm scum then keep your cool and convince the rest of town.

[Aroura]

Unvote

Yeah, I got it too.

@Assassin You should have soft-claimed.

Ah, IDK about this one either. Admonishing our scum buddy for a stupid claim seems....stupid.  At this point, if he knew it was a lie he would have known it was going to be counterclaimed.
Wifom.
A smart scum does get their hands dirty, like this.  But this seems really really risky.  This makes me more town read Paleo.

[Aroura]

Oh FFS, I can't get rid of that one quote!!  I'm so sorry to Assassin, he must be getting so many alerts, lol.

[Aroura]

Unvote

I did apologize if you had posted it and I'd missed it. The reason that I'd missed it was because I was looking for an analysis of which players spoke to which. That was the context that you mentioned it in and that could be important. Do you have that analysis handy?

Oh, you missed something, you must be scum! 

I'm not understanding this level of reaction.

I voted you. Not the end of the world. Sure, town makes mistakes. I've made plenty myself. Keep you cool and convince me that's what I'm looking at. If I'm scum then keep your cool and convince the rest of town.

 
I am not feeling cool, I'm annoyed because if you are town, it bothers the crap outa me that you would still point out mistakes and call them "slips" after you literally got a townie lynched yesterday using that exact same logic.

It's NAI.  Mistakes happen, and town makes them more often.  If you have a legit point about me, you have yet to make it.  I can get pissed at faulty logic even as I accept the vote.  And I do.  I'm happy to have votes back on me at the end of the day if that it what Aliza wants.

That makes me realize, I hope my post analysis is helpful and not just annoying.  Shall I keep going?  I'm nearly done with Paleo, then I'll work with Smerc, and I'll do myself as well.

[Paleophyte]

Assassins first vote has no reason given.  Post 9.  That's fine. He admits it's random, which we do need to cover at some point for new players and why that is bad. (The following are all in my timezone, local times may vary)

Anyway, in post 62 he unvotes, that takes place at 6:56 am.
He gives NO reason for his unvote in that post, or at any time after.  He clearly does not do it in order to join another wagon, because he does not vote again until post #76, which is at 5:45 pm.  That's almost 11 hours after he unvoted Paleo! That strikes me as odd and possibly meaningful.

I can't speak to why Assassin voted the way that he did.

Assassin never directly addresses or quotes Paleo (that I can find!  I am a human who misses things)

Post 35 in the earlier half of Day 1. I had called Assassin on his naked vote, he replied. Several later on in Day 1.

[Aliza]

@Paleophyte are you okay taking the lynch today and let me shoot @Aroura in the night phase?

[Aroura]

Assassin never directly addresses or quotes Paleo (that I can find!  I am a human who misses things)

Post 35 in the earlier half of Day 1. I had called Assassin on his naked vote, he replied. Several later on in Day 1.
[/quote]

As I explained in my next post, I immediately realized it was a mistake.
And as you say, you have several responses later.

I was confusing you and Phaedrus for a moment in my memory. 

@Aliza Is this helpful, or is all this review I'm doing overwhelming or annoying?  It's helping me, but I don't want to become annoying to other players.

[Aliza]

Assassin never directly addresses or quotes Paleo (that I can find!  I am a human who misses things)

Post 35 in the earlier half of Day 1. I had called Assassin on his naked vote, he replied. Several later on in Day 1.

As I explained in my next post, I immediately realized it was a mistake.
And as you say, you have several responses later.

I was confusing you and Phaedrus for a moment in my memory. 

@Aliza Is this helpful, or is all this review I'm doing overwhelming or annoying?  It's helping me, but I don't want to become annoying to other players.
[/quote]

It's not annoying. I've done my analysis, but hearing other perspectives is very helpful because I miss things.