2020 US candidates

[Alan V]

To summarize: I supported Jay Inslee early on for his strong positions on climate change, and even contributed to his campaign even though I didn't think he had much of a chance. I was later gratified that all the candidates came out with positions on climate change and spoke about it at the debates. After that I hoped Kamala Harris would catch on, in part because she pointed out some of Joe Biden's weaknesses. After she faltered, I was still looking for a strong alternative to Biden, and hoped Mike Bloomberg might be that person on the basis of his commercials. Unfortunately, as Mordant quickly pointed out, he was more of a political opportunist who didn't live up to his ads. Then I wavered between Amy Klobuchar, who was an unexciting moderate, and Elizabeth Warren, who I took to be a competent bureaucrat, someone who might possibly bridge the gap between moderates and progressives -- even though I was convinced at that point that Bernie Sanders was unbeatable. I therefore had mixed feelings when Biden surged back, since I had pretty well written him off.

So in the end I have to satisfy myself with supporting the Democratic Party and its platform, which itself is the kind of compromise of positions I had hoped for.

[Minimalist]

I am suspicious of anti Biden propaganda now. I predict there will be a shitstorm of crap, emanating from the White House, Russia and other places. I am going to believe nothing, fake people will penetrate groups and spread crap.

Yep.  It struck me as strange that Reade's claims have just surfaced now, nearly thirty years later.
And she's got nothing to lose, but Biden's got a lot to lose.  Is she a Trump plant?

Yeah, when he was elected VP of the fucking United States in 2008 and 2012 she stayed silent.  Waiting, I suppose Putin expects us to believe, for him to run for President which she knew would happen!

I put about as much stock in that bullshit as I do in the complaints about Sanders in similar veins. 

The thing is Trumpolini is a criminal rapist pervert scumbag but the republicunts don't care.  But they know that the SJWs on the left will lose their shit over the smallest hint of an indiscretion and destroy themselves.  Once again, they'll bring a pillow to a gun fight because they are so easily manipulated by these republicunt bastards.

[jerry mcmasters]

Joe Biden appeared with Chuck Todd on Meet the Press this morning...very lucid and coherent. No difficult questions or curve balls but he gave reasonable presidential-sounding answers. Good job Joe!

[jerry mcmasters]

And no he was not asked about the recent sex assault accusation.

[Alan V]

Joe Biden appeared with Chuck Todd on Meet the Press this morning...very lucid and coherent.  No difficult questions or curve balls but he gave reasonable presidential-sounding answers.  Good job Joe!

Biden fumbled with his words in a few places, but no worse than I would have done myself.  I agree that his answers were excellent, so I was happily surprised.

[Dom]

Being bad at debating doesn't mean being bad at thinking.

[Minimalist]

But being bad at thinking does not seem to be a disqualifier for republicunts.

[Aroura]

New ABC poll has Trump at 47%, and Biden at 49%.
One month ago, Trump was at 44% and Biden at 54%.
The gap has narrowed significantly already.

Also, of Trump voters, 55% are "very enthusiastic" while a total of 13% are not so, or not at all enthusiastic.  

For Biden voters, 28% are "very enthusiastic" while a total of 26% are not so, or not at all enthusiastic.

In addition, asked who they trust more to handle the economy, Trump beat Biden by 10 points.
Asked who they trust to handle the coronavirus outbreak, Trump beat Biden by 4 points.
Asked who they trust on healthcare, Biden beats Trump by 10 points.

Poll data here

[Minimalist]

I wouldn't have been "enthusiastic" about voting for Sanders.  But that wouldn't have stopped me if he had done better.

[Dānu]

New ABC poll has Trump at 47%, and Biden at 49%.
One month ago, Trump was at 44% and Biden at 54%.
The gap has narrowed significantly already.

Also, of Trump voters, 55% are "very enthusiastic" while a total of 13% are not so, or not at all enthusiastic.  

For Biden voters, 28% are "very enthusiastic" while a total of 26% are not so, or not at all enthusiastic.

In addition, asked who they trust more to handle the economy, Trump beat Biden by 10 points.
Asked who they trust to handle the coronavirus outbreak, Trump beat Biden by 4 points.
Asked who they trust on healthcare, Biden beats Trump by 10 points.

Poll data here

The rally 'round the flag effect (or syndrome) is a concept used in political science and international relations to explain increased short-run popular support of the President of the United States during periods of international crisis or war. Because rally 'round the flag effect can reduce criticism of governmental policies, it can be seen as a factor of diversionary foreign policy.

---

Since Mueller's original theories, two schools of thought have emerged to explain the causes of the effect. The first, "The Patriotism School of Thought" holds that in times of crisis, the American public sees the President as the embodiment of national unity. The second, "The Opinion Leadership School" believes that the rally emerges from a lack of criticism from members of the opposition party, most often in the United States Congress. If opposition party members appear to support the president, the media has no conflict to report, thus it appears to the public that all is well with the performance of the president. The two theories have both been criticized, but it is generally accepted that the Patriotism School of thought is better to explain causes of rallies, while the Opinion Leadership School of thought is better to explain duration of rallies. It is also believed that the lower the presidential approval rating before the crisis, the larger the increase will be in terms of percentage points because it leaves the president more room for improvement. For example, Franklin Roosevelt only had a 12% increase in approval from 72% to 84% following the Attack on Pearl Harbor, whereas George W. Bush had a 39% increase from 51% to 90% following the September 11 attacks.

Another theory about the cause of the effect is believed to be embedded in the US Constitution. Unlike in other countries, the constitution makes the President both head of government and head of state. Because of this, the president receives a temporary boost in popularity because his Head of State role gives him symbolic importance to the American people. However, as time goes on his duties as Head of Government require partisan decisions that polarize opposition parties and diminish popularity. This theory falls in line more with the Opinion Leadership School.

Wikipedia || Rally 'round the flag effect

[Alan V]

New ABC poll has Trump at 47%, and Biden at 49%.
One month ago, Trump was at 44% and Biden at 54%.
The gap has narrowed significantly already.

Also, of Trump voters, 55% are "very enthusiastic" while a total of 13% are not so, or not at all enthusiastic.  

For Biden voters, 28% are "very enthusiastic" while a total of 26% are not so, or not at all enthusiastic.

In addition, asked who they trust more to handle the economy, Trump beat Biden by 10 points.
Asked who they trust to handle the coronavirus outbreak, Trump beat Biden by 4 points.
Asked who they trust on healthcare, Biden beats Trump by 10 points.

Poll data here

We'll see where Trump stands after tens of thousands more Americans die due to his delayed response to Covid-19.

[jerryg]

I don't know. We're watching NY face the biggest crisis, and Cuomo is suing Rhode Island for trying to keep an eye on the New Yorkers fleeing the epicenter, and people are saying he's presidential.

What people are drawn to in these times doesn't seem to be results related. Just be the face they see talking about it everyday, and that's about all you need to do.

[Aroura]

New ABC poll has Trump at 47%, and Biden at 49%.
One month ago, Trump was at 44% and Biden at 54%.
The gap has narrowed significantly already.

Also, of Trump voters, 55% are "very enthusiastic" while a total of 13% are not so, or not at all enthusiastic.  

For Biden voters, 28% are "very enthusiastic" while a total of 26% are not so, or not at all enthusiastic.

In addition, asked who they trust more to handle the economy, Trump beat Biden by 10 points.
Asked who they trust to handle the coronavirus outbreak, Trump beat Biden by 4 points.
Asked who they trust on healthcare, Biden beats Trump by 10 points.

Poll data here

We'll see where Trump stands after tens of thousands more Americans die due to his delayed response to Covid-19.

Not a good sign that Biden is such a weak candidate that we may need to count on tens of thousands of people dying to improve his chances.

But then, governor Cuomo has a higher enthusiasm rating than Biden does. Seems a lot of Democratic voters are hoping to erase the democratic process entirely and just appoint Cuomo as the nominee, since they are so unhappy with Biden.

[mordant]

I don't know.  We're watching NY face the biggest crisis, and Cuomo is suing Rhode Island for trying to keep an eye on the New Yorkers fleeing the epicenter, and people are saying he's presidential.

What people are drawn to in these times doesn't seem to be results related.  Just be the face they see talking about it everyday, and that's about all you need to do.

That is why I said the other day that the electorate is far more interested in superficially familiar and comforting symbols and avatars than in actual leaders, actual policy, or actual results. Cuomo is busy cutting Medicare in NY -- and bragging about it -- in the middle of the crisis. He's accepting the lack of federal aid as a reason to cut programs for working and poor and working poor rather than to cut subsidies or raise taxes on the wealthy. He's no one's friend unless you're part of the elite. But ... hell, he's presidential. Even I would feel a few notches less unenthusiastic voting for him as President than Biden ... but again he's just a placeholder, and, looks good only relative to the incredibly low bar that Trump (and now, Biden) has set and that even Democrats by and large appear to have bought into.

[Aroura]

I wouldn't have been "enthusiastic" about voting for Sanders.  But that wouldn't have stopped me if he had done better.

That's good to hear! And this is the problem. Because as I've already stated, I'm so unenthusiastic about Biden that I won't vote for him. I know it makes you mad, but I'm just being honest.

Biden has been pushed by the party elites as electable, it's the reason so many people switched at the last minute. People are sheep, as we so often point out as atheist. That doesn't make the electable part true.

Once more, if your party has roughly two groups of people, one group voting blue no matter who, and one voting on policy or issues so they won't vote blue no matter who because they aren't even necessarily Democrats, putting up a candidate that alienates the second group is outright stupid.

But hey, Democrats have done this over and over and over and over in the last 40 years.  And for some reason, voters never learn, they just keep nominating centrists because the party tells them it'll work this time! I mean, maybe in the face of the biggest crisis this nation had seen in 100 years, "nothing will fundamentally change" will finally win the day. What a strong message!

And yes, Obama was a centrist, much to my regret, but he didn't RUN as one. 

I'm sure I'll get tons of shit about this post, but I don't even care anymore. I'm not just pissed, I'm furious at how gullible and easily (and happily) misled so many people are.

Signs of mental decline in Trump are obvious, and alarming, but happily overlooked in Biden. Well, he had a super easy interview and didn't fall on his face, so all the talk of record players and voting for the other Biden and running for senate, meaningless! But oranges of the investigation will never be forgotten.

Reports of sexual misconduct are related over and over about Trump, but dismissed out of hand for Biden, using the same exact arguments and language Republicans used to dismiss accusations against Trump and Kavanaigh btw.

A history of extreme dishonesty is a hated Hallmark of Trump, but again overlooked in Biden even though it's massively problematic, because he's not as dishonest as Trump. An impossibly low bar since almost no one is as dishonest as Trump.

The list goes on.

Frankly, I'm tired of this level of hypocrisy. I've overlooked it for most of my life, but I'm done with it now. All it's gotten us is Trump.

[Minimalist]

Then you may as well vote for Trump.... and I don't want to hear you whining when he wins.

[Alan V]

I'm so unenthusiastic about Biden that I won't vote for him. I know it makes you made, but I'm just being honest.

Biden has been pushed by the party elites as electable, it's the reason so many people switched at the last minute. People are sheep, as we so often point out as atheist. That doesn't make the electable part true.

Biden came back due largely to black voters in South Carolina -- not exactly the party elite or even because of the party.  They would have voted for him anyway, since they leaned moderate.

Once more, if your party has roughly two groups of people, one group voting blue no matter who, and one voting on policy or issues so they won't vote blue no matter who because they aren't even necessarily Democrats,, putting up a candidate that alienates the second group is outright stupid.

But hey, Democrats have done this over and over and over and over in the last 40 years.   And for some reason, voters never l learn, they just keep nominating centrists because there party tells them it'll work this time! I mean, maybe in the face of the biggest crisis this nation had seen in 100 years, "nothing will fundamentally change" will finally win the day. What a strong message!

And yes, Obama was a centrist, much to my regret, but he didn't RUN as one. 

I vote blue no matter who because I support party policies.  It's not either/or.

No progressive policies get enacted if no one is elected, and moderates likely have a better chance of being elected in the current political climate.  Progressives will have to be satisfied that the Democratic Party platform has changed to include more progressive policies this time around.  Perhaps if the Republican Party collapses in the future, you can vote for a Progressive Party instead.

I'm sure I'll get tons of shit about this post, but I don't even care anymore. I'm not just pissed, I'm furious at how gullible and easily (and happily) misled so many people are.

Signs of mental decline in Trump are obvious, and alarming, but happily overlooked in Biden. Well, he had a super easy interview and didn't fall on his face, so all the talk of record players and voting for the other Biden and running for senate, meaningless! But oranges of the investigation will never be forgotten.

Reports of sexual misconduct are related over and over about Trump, but dismissed out of hand for Biden, using the same exact arguments and language Republicans used to dismiss accusations against Trump and Kavanaigh btw.

Calling any responses "shit" is almost the definition of dismissive.  Biden is old and has problems because of it, but other candidates have their own problems, including Sanders.

A history of extreme dishonesty is a hated Hallmark of Trump, but again overlooked in Biden even though it's massively problematic, because he's not as dishonest as Trump. An impossibly low bar since almost no one is as dishonest as Trump.

The list goes on.

Frankly, I'm tired of this level of hypocrisy. I've overlooked it for most of my life, but I'm done with it now. All it's gotten us is Trump.

Risking hypocrisy is better than outright lying, as you have done above.  Being accurate isn't as easy as you claim.

[Thumpalumpacus]

"If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice."

[skyking]

"If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice."

[Szuchow]

But being bad at thinking does not seem to be a disqualifier for republicunts.

If you support Trump, you don't support American military. 

Thanks to this one sentence supporting Trump suddenly looks less crazy.

[Aroura]

"If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice."

Exactly.  I've still made a choice.  So all the people telling me I'm not participating or throwing my vote away are full of shit.  This IS participating.  It IS choosing.  I'm passionately, angrily, vigorously and with my whole heart going to leave that top box empty if my choices are what they seem likely to be.  Just like people did in '16.

Jesus, Hillary was more honest than Biden.  And far sharper, too!  

And if other people vote for the guy who now has multiple accusations of sexual misconduct, who opposed busing and wrote the bill that has incarcerated disproportionately black and brown and poor people in huge, huge numbers, who made it near impossible to file for bankrupsy unless wealthy, they have also made a choice.  The EXACT same sort of choice that pro-lifers make when they support Trump even though he's otherwise a monster.  The lesser of two evils.  Congrats to those people on normalizing Trumpian behavior, which is supporting a candidate no matter what. Which is exactly what vote blue no matter who means.  Well, it matters to me.

 I want people to seriously consider, have they become so anti-Trump that if Biden shot someone on 5th avenue (and was already the nominee), would they still vote for him, because he's still not as bad as Trump?  Because that looks like where we are now, to me.

[Dom]

"If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice."

Exactly.  I've still made a choice.  So all the people telling me I'm not participating or throwing my vote away are full of shit.  This IS participating.  It IS choosing.  I'm passionately, angrily, vigorously and with my whole heart going to leave that top box empty if my choices are what they seem likely to be.  Just like people did in '16.

Jesus, Hillary was more honest than Biden.  And far sharper, too!  

And if other people vote for the guy who now has multiple accusations of sexual misconduct, who opposed busing and wrote the bill that has incarcerated disproportionately black and brown and poor people in huge, huge numbers, who made it near impossible to file for bankrupsy unless wealthy, they have also made a choice.  The EXACT same sort of choice that pro-lifers make when they support Trump even though he's otherwise a monster.  The lesser of two evils.  Congrats to those people on normalizing Trumpian behavior, which is supporting a candidate no matter what. Which is exactly what vote blue no matter who means.  Well, it matters to me.

 I want people to seriously consider, have they become so anti-Trump that if Biden shot someone on 5th avenue (and was already the nominee), would they still vote for him, because he's still not as bad as Trump?  Because that looks like where we are now, to me.

Yep, you are choosing to live in an autocracy and may not ever get to choose again. The thing about Biden shooting someone on 5th ave is just silly. But , if such a thing were to happen, dems would certainly disqualify him and Sanders would be on. Silly thing to say, though.

[Alan V]

"If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice."

Exactly.  I've still made a choice.  So all the people telling me I'm not participating or throwing my vote away are full of shit.  This IS participating.  It IS choosing.  I'm passionately, angrily, vigorously and with my whole heart going to leave that top box empty if my choices are what they seem likely to be.  Just like people did in '16.

Jesus, Hillary was more honest than Biden.  And far sharper, too!  

And if other people vote for the guy who now has multiple accusations of sexual misconduct, who opposed busing and wrote the bill that has incarcerated disproportionately black and brown and poor people in huge, huge numbers, who made it near impossible to file for bankrupsy unless wealthy, they have also made a choice.  The EXACT same sort of choice that pro-lifers make when they support Trump even though he's otherwise a monster.  The lesser of two evils.  Congrats to those people on normalizing Trumpian behavior, which is supporting a candidate no matter what. Which is exactly what vote blue no matter who means.  Well, it matters to me.

 I want people to seriously consider, have they become so anti-Trump that if Biden shot someone on 5th avenue (and was already the nominee), would they still vote for him, because he's still not as bad as Trump?  Because that looks like where we are now, to me.

Personally, I don't mind you not voting.  But I hate to see you throw your vote away because you don't like who someone was twenty or thirty years ago.  You should read up on what Biden is proposing, and I think you will see he supports a very different agenda now.

[Alan V]

Yep, you are choosing to live in an autocracy and may not ever get to choose again. The thing about Biden shooting someone on 5th ave is just silly. But , if such a thing were to happen, dems would certainly disqualify him and Sanders would be on. Silly thing to say, though.

For some reason, certain progressives don't mind insulting the intelligence of moderate Democrats time and again.

[jerryg]

It'll be interesting to see how this goes if the lockdown extends to the election.  The democrats really rely on a physical get out the vote effort.  Showing up at people's houses, registering them, and then giving them weeks of in person voting, and driving them to the polls.  Minorities and youths in particular.  

I'd think needing people to take it upon themselves, will be a major challenge even if the ballots get mailed out.