What TV are you Currently Watching?

[Alan V]

I wish I knew if the majority of independents would prefer a moderate. Different channels give different numbers while accusing the other channels of trying to bury the truth, which is probably part of the game. 

Whoever people believe other people will vote for will probably end up as the nominee. Someone said Biden is in the lead right now because people are convinced he is the least offensive alternative to Trump for republicans; they could let him win. 
However, if the alternative is a woman or a socialist, in theory, even the republicans who want Trump gone will vote for another four years. 
In this scenario people will not nominate the democrat they want, but whoever placates the republicans. 

Or that could be a lie and the majority really wants a moderate... 

I personally think that the independents who got frustrated with the status quo enough to vote for Trump would be more likely to vote for someone like Warren over Biden.  I think that will become apparent in the numbers if and when Sanders drops out and most of his support goes to Warren.  Without Warren and Sanders splitting the progressive vote, that would be clear even now.

The main risk of nominating a more progressive candidate is that it would likely inspire more Republicans to turn out and vote against him or her, just as you said.  But I think Democrats should appeal to our own base first.  We have the demographic trend on our side.